Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
401,467   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
363,307   46.8   
Total Write-Ins
—
10,968   1.4   
70% reporting (1,556 of 2,220 precincts)

[MillennialModerate]

I’m obviously hoping to be wrong but how in the hell does the NYT think Jones has a shot. He’s down by a lot with 60% in.... sad night

[7,052,770]

NYT coming back to Jones!

[ProudModerate2]

Huge jump for Jones in actual reported numbers.
Moore was leading by an 8-ish margin, now he only leads by 4.7

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Moore is still gonna win this.

[scutosaurus]

I’m obviously hoping to be wrong but how in the hell does the NYT think Jones has a shot. He’s down by a lot with 60% in.... sad night

Take a look at the estimated votes remaining.

[7,052,770]

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My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the total number of votes counted. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election this year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.

Wow, it really is just something you made up rather than a statistical analysis of precinct results. I (thought I) was just jerking your chain.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This last 30% has to be very pro-jones. I just don't see it

[CatoMinor]

A tiny sliver of hope, but I doubt Jones can overcome that sea of birthers and Trumpists in Rural-White Bama

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[/quote]

[Pyro]

Montgomery just bumped the total, 50.5% Moore to 48.1% Jones.

[The Govanah Jake]

Moore only up by 2%. There is still a chance

[Oryxslayer]

55/190 now in Mobile Jones holding above 60%.

23/24 in Swing Lee/Auburn 55.7 - 42.3 Jones.

83/172 Jefferson Jones still above 80%.

51/73 Madison 55.6 - 41.3 Jones

38/99 Montgomery 72% Jones

What has to hurt Moore: Suburban Elmore, Autauga, St. Clair, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Jackson, Limestone, Lauderdale, and Colbert are nearly all in - only a handful of precincts remaining in all of them. Only Baldwin and Shelby Suburban counties left.

Jones still high on NYT

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
439,021   50.7%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
414,580   47.9   
Total Write-Ins
—
12,049   1.4   
76% reporting (1,682 of 2,220 precincts)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

538 has Moore down to a plurality.

[ProudModerate2]

Actual reported numbers now only show Moore leading by 2.8

[Dr. MB]

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Well I'll be damned. Jones might actually pull this out after all.

[jaichind]

CNN exit polls now has Jones ahead.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Sure, it's something I've developed, but I've watched a lot of elections and have gradually refined it over time.

The basic assumption has been surprisingly robust, that the election total percentages swing less the more votes are in. It sounds like hocus pocus, but it's really not. It's all stats and error bars.

Bigger samples = less swing. Really that's all it is. It being 2/x was something I suspected and have tested it against every election I've witnessed since. PA was a special case.

Sure it's not as sexy as other models, but it's also turnout independent and precinct independent. It relies on being conservative 2/x vs 1/x

[Oryxslayer]

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

Sites been slow today for some reason. probably a load of users from this election.

[Badger]

55/190 now in Mobile Jones holding above 60%.

23/24 in Swing Lee/Auburn 55.7 - 42.3 Jones.

83/172 Jefferson Jones still above 80%.

51/73 Madison 55.6 - 41.3 Jones

38/99 Montgomery 72% Jones

What has to hurt Moore: Suburban Elmore, Autauga, St. Clair, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Jackson, Limestone, Lauderdale, and Colbert are nearly all in - only a handful of precincts remaining in all of them. Only Baldwin and Shelby Suburban counties left.

Jones still high on NYT

And Shelby is over 60% in.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn off that warning in your personal settings. I did that a long time ago.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Making up a 26k margin between Jefferson, Montgomery, and Mobile are still very possible.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

538 now has Jones ahead.