Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Horus]

Should we be concerned that there are no votes in from Shelby County yet?

Shelby county seems like the type of place with a lot of Trump-Jones voters.

[muon2]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stats. Moore's been building on a statistical advantage, hovering between 75-90 percent confidence for awhile now.

After a certain percentage of votes in, the votes outstanding are much less likely to swing.

4% after 50 percent in is callable.

[emailking]

Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

Sure but it can swing wildly while still being accurate at any given point.

[Admiral Kizaru]

Nate Cohn‏Verified account
@Nate_Cohn
 3m3 minutes ago
More
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates--including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
228,585   52.2%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
203,064   46.4   
Total Write-Ins
—
5,911   1.4   
43% reporting (944 of 2,220 precincts)

[muon2]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.

For example Fayette has 57.3% of its 2016 vote and is a 75% Moore county only down 6% from 2016.

[Wisconsin+17]

Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.

[JerryArkansas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stats. Moore's been building on a statistical advantage, hovering between 75-90 percent confidence for awhile now.

After a certain percentage of votes in, the votes outstanding are much less likely to swing.

4% after 50 percent in is callable.

Sure, whatever you say honey.  Making these bullsh**t numbers seem legit enough though.   

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout problem for the Republicans

HARRY ENTEN 9:23 PM
Following up on that Nate Cohn tweet we posted below: I want to point out that Fayette County is all in. Moore won it by 50 points — well ahead of his benchmark there. Here’s the twist, though: There were less than 5,000 votes cast there. In 2014, there were nearly 7,000 votes cast there. In other words, turnout is way down from 2014 in a heavy pro-Moore area.

[ProudModerate2]

Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

OK, I will calm down a bit, but very early numbers in their model and calculations can easily be misinterpreted. But as the total percentage that in and reported keeps climbing their model estimates for the balance of votes should be more and more accurate.

Right now it is 46% total reported. And the NYT estimates Jones' chance of winning is 72% with an approx. margin of 4.1

That's pretty damn high.

[JA]

Shelby County, AL

06/48 - Precincts Reported

61.6% - Roy Moore
36.0% - Doug Jones
02.4% - Write-In

[Koharu]

Nate Cohn‏Verified account
@Nate_Cohn
 3m3 minutes ago
More
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates--including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.

Thanks for sharing this. The NYT model had me really scratching my head.

[MillennialModerate]

ALABUNGA IS NOW ALABAMA
JONES IS GONNA WIN

The kiss of death ...

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT now at 90% Jones.   PredictIt at .55 for Jones.

[Illiniwek]

Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.

Great news. Thanks. See you at the end of the night.

[Oryxslayer]

Shelby at 6/48  62.5 - 36 Moore

Macon nearly finished 88.6/11.1 Jones

Madison 30/73 57.6 - 39.3 Jones.

Perry 13/13 79/20.7 Jones

Dale close 18/20 64.8 - 34.1 Moore

Randolph  finished 65.3 - 34,2 Moore

Clerburne nearly finished 14/15 80 - 19 Moore.

Monroe nearly done 26/30 51 - 48 Jones

Conecuh 26/28 56.1 - 43.4 Jones

Colbert finished 53.1 - 46.9 Moore

Cullman nearly done 42/50 79 - 19.4 Moore

63 /172 Jefferson. Jones still above 80% 86% Jones on NYT, I'm beginning to expect Jones now...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
254,321   51.0%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
238,023   47.7   
Total Write-Ins
—
6,599   1.3   
48% reporting (1,072 of 2,220 precincts)

[7,052,770]

My made up model says Jones 110% to win!!!!1

[Badger]

Russell County, a black belt county Hillary narrowly won with a plurality, now 100% in.

IF one extrapolates a similar statewide shift (Jones cleaned up), and IF one assumes Johnson/Stein/ whoever voters stayed home or did write-ins......

Jones wins by about half a percent.

Be still my heart.


Oh! And barely jack in from Montgomery!

[cvparty]

omg is he actually gonna win

[TheSaint250]

This is the first time that I've ever felt happy about a Democrat winning

[UncleSam]

NYTimes had it at 90% Jones at +8.3 for a second

Now back to +4.6

Moore in the lead by about 4% with 50% in

I think it's fair to say that if Jones fails to come back Nate Cohn will have lost most of his credibility tonight

On the other hand, if he does then that's a bit boon to the NYTimes modeling (well, if he wins by about 4 points, as they've been saying most of the night).

[Wisconsin+17]

Jones max now at 50 percent for the first time.

This is a hilarious thread.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I still think Moore will win this