Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Wisconsin+17]

Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

[MAINEiac4434]

Uh, guys, check the NYT needles...

66% for Jones win...

[musicblind]

NYT's has Jones at 2.9% in their estimated outcome, but that needle is flying back and forth like crazy.

[ProudModerate2]

If you are not watching the NYT up-to-the-minute information, you need to do so!.
Click this link ......

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

[JerryArkansas]

Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?

[7,052,770]

Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

Nobody cares about your homecooked model.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

NYT ticker is junk.

It still has not been disabled for 2016 president, and it shows Clinton winning NPV by 1.2% or 1.3%.  Still flicks back and forth randomly up to today.  And neither of those was the actual result of 2.1%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now Jones+4.7 and 76% on NYT.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
175,947   52.0%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
157,841   46.7   
Total Write-Ins
—
4,538   1.3   
32% reporting (710 of 2,220 precincts)

[ProudModerate2]

Jones chance of winning now at 75% !!!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NYT says Jones has a 76% chance winning?

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[muon2]

Walker county is half in and Moore is behind Trumps numbers by a little over 12%. That does put the edge slightly to Jones. Shelby will be key to see if the suburban vote has dropped off more for Moore than the more rural counties. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What the f**k is going on?

[BlueDogDemocrat]

NYT says Jones has 76% chance of winning and by 4.5%!!!

[Pyro]

Positive signs in Jefferson County in raw votes for Jones.

[Illiniwek]

Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?

Clearly.

[Wisconsin+17]

NYT model is way off here.

If Moore's lead holds at 4% at 50 percent in, this race is called. Holding off for now. Moore still has a statistical advantage.

[TheSaint250]

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !

I honestly did not expect any candidate to be that far ahead in the projected results.

This is turning out to be an even better night for Jones (and most of us) than we thought!

[Oryxslayer]

Birmingham drops 18 more precincts. Must have been marginal precincts that went heavy jones, cause it shoved the NYT tracker.

Crucially: No vote from Shelby, only early from Mobile and Tuscaloosa. Half vote for Elmore/ Blount/ Walker - all suburb counties.

Tuscaloosa dropped some results 17/55 55 - 43 Jones.

Jones at 75% chance of victory. I don't buy it, but thats nice.

[7,052,770]

Should we be concerned that there are no votes in from Shelby County yet?

[_]

ALABUNGA IS NOW ALABAMA
JONES IS GONNA WIN

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

We think about 898,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 7.4 points.

[Badger]

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !

Here is a sentence to destroy any irrational enthusiasm.

"No results from Shelby County yet."

That said, the same is true or largely true for a bunch of rural black belt counties.