Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[BuckeyeNut]

Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.

Citation needed.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Forget my signature, this man is America's new Sweetheart.

[Sestak]

Nate Silver, Troll-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight:

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Wow, hearing lots of reports of high turnout in areas that confirm my priors.
1:39 PM - 12 Dec 2017

[Cactus Jack]

Can't dougie the Dougie. I will ride this ship to the end and sink with it if I have to.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.

Not sure why Wulfric got to dictate these terms. I had no part in these negotiations, and are therefore invalidated.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.

Citation needed.

https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/940696121890037761

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

[Donerail]

Results coverage will be where it always is, in the thread specifically dedicated to this election.

[Cactus Jack]

If this turns out to be a UK '17 situation, with pollsters fatally underestimating youth turnout, I'll do an actual f**king dance.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Jones wins it'd be awesome, but still a fluke, like Cao or Brown.

[mvd10]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

I wouldn't be too surprised if they voted for Moore. Ultra-wealthy areas in Southern states are hilariously Republican and Trump won plenty of those places by huge margins even though he collapsed in wealthy California and NYC suburbs (and ultimately most of the wealthiest places are there).

According to the national precinct map (idk if reliable) Trump won the Mountain Brook town hall precinct 67-26 (other precincts that seem to be part of Mountain Brook voted similarly) so it should be relatively safe for Moore.

EDIT: ninja'd by ExtremeConservative

[Jeppe]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

[BuckeyeNut]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

Jones likely doesn't need to win these precincts. He just needs to over perform.

[KingSweden]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

That’s fair analysis, and I’m sure such a result suits Jones just fine

[Adam Griffin]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[VPH]

I'd love to get really hype about early turnout results, but notice that these are mostly coming from territory friendly to Jones. How about rural, Moore-stronghold territory? Would like to know if increases are similar or not. I know there's that one judge in Baldwin saying Jones could get 45% (which I take with less than a grain of salt). Don't get too invested in these anecdotal turnout stories.

[Hydera]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

incoming heart attack at 1..2...3...

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If this turns out to be a UK '17 situation, with pollsters fatally underestimating youth turnout, I'll do an actual f**king dance.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Jesus, I really need to stop reading the comments on PredictIt.

[Tx_Longhorn]

O Lordy, i'm getting anxious to see those exit polls

[Gass3268]

I'd love to get really hype about early turnout results, but notice that these are mostly coming from territory friendly to Jones. How about rural, Moore-stronghold territory? Would like to know if increases are similar or not. I know there's that one judge in Baldwin saying Jones could get 45% (which I take with less than a grain of salt). Don't get too invested in these anecdotal turnout stories.

Higher than expected, but not as high as the Jones areas seems to be the consensus I've seen.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

incoming heart attack at 1..2...3...

The early exit polls usually don't have topline numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's all over

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912





(lol)

[Pyro]

Conventional wisdom tells us Moore should have no issue winning this race.
Though for some reason, it feels like there's more at stake here than say, GA-06.