Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[junior chįmp]

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[Sestak]

Too late. You guys are getting my hopes up. Damn it.

[Matty]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

[Pandaguineapig]

Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

It was effectively overturned by a higher court. There is a certain margin where it becomes so blatantly obvious that they have to certify a Jones win, but as I said yesterday, if it's Jones by <10,000 , or maybe even a bit bigger than that, AL will fraud the vote and make it a Moore win.

Or they can use the Minnesota tactic of "finding" boxes of uncounted votes

[DFL]

If Jones wins tonight I’ll start believing in miracles again

[Virginiá]

Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

It was effectively overturned by a higher court. There is a certain margin where it becomes so blatantly obvious that they have to certify a Jones win, but as I said yesterday, if it's Jones by <10,000 , or maybe even a bit bigger than that, AL will fraud the vote and make it a Moore win.

Also from what I read, this is just digital records. Paper ballots are still preserved. I really don't understand why the state is so gung-ho about wanting the ability to destroy these records immediately, but if the physical ballots still exist, this whole thing seems like less of an issue. I mean, it's not like if someone decided to stuff some ballots they couldn't also "digitalize" their efforts as well.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The only way Jones can pull it is if enough Republicans cast write in votes. Then again, it was supposed to hurt Trump everywhere in 2016.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.

[Adam Griffin]

This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers

I actually remember the opposite... high turnout in Handel-favored precincts.

In retrospect/after the election was over, that was clear, yes. In the run-up to the polls closing, it wasn't so obvious. This is why precinct turnout reports shared in threads like this are pretty useless unless somebody is tracking them all in a sheet or something; with hundreds (or in this case, thousands) of precincts, getting reports for 1% of them isn't exactly accurate. GA-6 also had the ED/EV divide to contend with, which is obviously not a real issue here.

[Tintrlvr]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

This should temper some enthusiasm here; turnout may just be high everywhere. Limestone County is likely to see a higher-than-average swing to Jones relative to 2016 Pres but should still be solidly for Moore overall.

[Ebsy]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

Not what the article actually says:

Probate Judge Charles Woodroof said he and Limestone County Sheriff Mike Blakely had visited about half the county's 25 precincts by lunch today. Woodroof believes the turnout is at least 30 percent and could be closer to 35.

“If we have a good late afternoon push, we could hit 40 percent,” he said. “That's pretty good for a two-person ballot.”

[junior chįmp]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

This should temper some enthusiasm here; turnout may just be high everywhere. Limestone County is likely to see a higher-than-average swing to Jones relative to 2016 Pres but should still be solidly for Moore overall.

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[BudgieForce]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

Not what the article actually says:

Probate Judge Charles Woodroof said he and Limestone County Sheriff Mike Blakely had visited about half the county's 25 precincts by lunch today. Woodroof believes the turnout is at least 30 percent and could be closer to 35.

“If we have a good late afternoon push, we could hit 40 percent,” he said. “That's pretty good for a two-person ballot.”

He's making some bold assumptions when he says turnout could hit 40%.

[Alabama_Indy10]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

[Alabama_Indy10]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

It's a big R county. Also has a ton of votes.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

[Devout Centrist]

IF Doug Jones gets anywhere close to 45% in Baldwin, it’s over.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Baldwin County played a strange role during the 2002 gubernatorial election.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

!!

What are the chances Russell is right??

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

!!

What are the chances Russell is right??

We wont know untill results come in.

[The Other Castro]

Dave Wasserman's benchmarks have Jones needing to get at least 35% in Baldwin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/edit#gid=0

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

What makes him think jones will do well in that county?

[Sestak]

It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll