Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Gustaf]

I guess the nice thing for Democrats is that the few high quality polls we've seen have had Jones ahead, right?

[Tx_Longhorn]

Is it true that the poll was 44R-42D? That seems like an unlikely composition of the expected electorate, no? But regardless, maybe there is some hope after all...

[Santander]

Where is StatesPoll? He was right about everything.

[Gustaf]

Yeah it's a turnout game. Jones wins if turnout patterns are such that the electorate is significantly less Republican than usual. Whether that happens is anyone's guess really.

[Santander]

Is it true that the poll was 44R-42D? That seems like an unlikely composition of the expected electorate, no? But regardless, maybe there is some hope after all...

The way I could buy this electorate is that there may just be enough doubt among Republican voters for them to stay home rather than risk voting for an alleged pedophile.

This described behavior is what white privilege looks like.

[Matty]

Good god, I just read some of the comment section on the predictit page for this race.....what a dumpster fire

[The Other Castro]

Good god, I just read some of the comment section on the predictit page for this race.....what a dumpster fire

My rule #1 about trading, never read the comment board.

[MT Treasurer]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.

[Del Tachi]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Either Rob Aderholt or Martha Roby won't have a district to run in after 2020 Census results in Alabama losing a seat.

So I say one of them, Roby might not be able to win a statewide GOP primary in Trump's Alabama though.

EDIT:  Well, actually 2020 redistricting won't take effect until 2022 which will see an election to Alabama's other Senate seat.  Shelby probably retires so they'll probably wait until then actually.



Anyway, this thing is way too volatile to predict with any kind of certainty.  Turnout is going to be the deciding factor.  I would say that the range of outcomes ranges from Moore +8 to Jones +4, so slight advantage to Moore.

[cp]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

[IceSpear]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

Now you know how those of us in swing states feel, especially when there's multiple competitive races at once.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.

[MT Treasurer]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well, and Jones really needs to do well in Mobile and Baldwin County in 2020. I'd be okay with Aderholt as well, but I don't think Roby could win the primary (or the GE, for that matter) after what happened in 2016.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.

One of them is apparently from Change Research not sure who the other one is from.

 https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409

[Kamala]

Byrne’s also not completely insane, so I don’t see how he wins a primary.

[Sestak]

Have all 6 GOP reps endorsed Moore btw?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well, and Jones really needs to do well in Mobile and Baldwin County in 2020. I'd be okay with Aderholt as well, but I don't think Roby could win the primary (or the GE, for that matter) after what happened in 2016.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Aderholt. I would have no problem with Roby but I doubt she could win the primary,

[Former Kentuckian]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

God, this election is going to give me an aneurysm

[Brittain33]

Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

[Sestak]

Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Hedge Hedge Hedge!

[IceSpear]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

[Sestak]

So, Monmouth is completely useless...

[Gass3268]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Here's the Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/

With 2017-based turnout model:

Jones 46
Moore 46

With higher turnout:

Jones 48
Moore 45

With lower historical turnout:

Moore 48
Jones 44