Some interesting Google Survey polling relating to the 2020 Democratic primary

[mattocaster6]

Over the past couple of weeks or so I have used Google Surveys to produce some interesting results relating to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

Because Google Surveys tends to target a far younger sample then you'd expect from a Democratic primary electorate, I also used a spreadsheet to weight down the under 45 sample share from the Google default of 51% down to 33%.

In order to test my weighting, I did 2 surveys asking respondents, if they voted, who for, in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, and this was the result of the samples + weighting applied:




As you can see from this screenshot of the weighting tables, the outcome of my weighting method was a remarkably accurate sample of how people voted in the 2016 primary, the average of my two weighted surveys is this:

Hillary Clinton: 56.25%

Bernie Sanders: 43.75%

What was the final actual result of the 2016 primary you ask?

Hillary Clinton 56.2%

Bernie Sanders 43.8%


So, to get down to business, here are a few of the weighted surveys I did, both nationally and statewide, of how Democratic primary voters intend to vote in the next presidential primary:


National:

Sanders vs Biden Presidential Primary among likely Democratic Primary voters:

Raw Data, unweighted: https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?hl=en-US&survey=saqajazdabhvxulxo2okkro4wm


Weighted:


Bernie Sanders: 32.8% (+4.6)

Joe Biden: 28.2%

Undecided: 39%

Excluding undecideds:

Bernie Sanders: 53.8% (+7.6)

Joe Biden: 46.2%

Usable sample size: 330

MoE: 5.39% +/-


Multi-candidate Presidential Primary among likely Democratic Primary voters:

Raw Data, unweighted: https://surveys.google.com/reporting/question?survey=vuvzoukthbxemprslrnve3cceq&question=1&raw=true&transpose=false&tab=chart&synonyms=true&hl=en-US


Weighted:


Bernie Sanders: 25.8%

Joe Biden: 20.3%

Elizabeth Warren: 8.2%

Kamala Harris: 1.9%

Undecided: 43.8%


Excluding undecideds:

Bernie Sanders: 45.9%

Joe Biden: 36.1%

Elizabeth Warren: 14.6%

Kamala Harris: 3.4%

Usable sample size: 315

MoE: 5.52% +/-




Statewide:


New Hampshire Sanders vs Biden presidential primary among likely Democratic primary voters:


Raw Data, unweighted: https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?hl=en-US&survey=hod3o3i5lqu42tmvzra2cw64ui


Weighted:

Bernie Sanders: 38.3% (+17.3)

Joe Biden: 21%

Undecided: 40.7%

Excluding undecideds:

Bernie Sanders: 64.6% (+29.2)

Joe Biden: 35.4%

Usable sample size:  249

MoE: 6.21% +/-



Standby while I work on adding more... (Will add a huge national survey I've been working on with a 1000+ usable sample size soon.)