AL-Sen, WaPo: Jones +3

[Brittain33]

Jones: 50%
Moore: 47%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/alabama-race-is-neck-and-neck-with-voters-divided-over-roy-moore-allegations-poll-finds/2017/12/01/32e659ec-d6bd-11e7-b62d-d9345ced896d_story.html?

[Oryxslayer]

Well this is interesting. This, I think, is the first 'quality' pollster to poll Alabama since the Fox poll. On the other hand, they have not polled the race before, so we cannot tell if the trend-line observed in the less reputable polls holds true. Chances are, such a trend-line does exist, which means we can guess that if WaPo polled right after the allegations, Jones would be up by more.

So really, it appears the only real question is turnout models.

[The Other Castro]

Which candidate do you trust more to handle the issue of abortion?
Moore - 47%
Jones - 46%

That’s....surprising right?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Which candidate do you trust more to handle the issue of abortion?
Moore - 47%
Jones - 46%

That’s....surprising right?

wat

[PoliticalShelter]

^

According to the poll it states that in the question "Regardless of the candidates running in this year's Senate election, would you rather have a (Democrat) or a (Republican) represent Alabama in the U.S. Senate?"
Voters are only picking the a republican by 50% versus 44% for the democrat suggests that a lot of republicans are probably not planning to turn out.

[Brittain33]

Which candidate do you trust more to handle the issue of abortion?
Moore - 47%
Jones - 46%

That’s....surprising right?

wat

For better or worse, they're modeling an electorate friendly to Jones. It's consistent with different pollsters showing different results based on whether nonKoolAid Republicans show up for Moore or stay home.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also interesting:

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[Tender Branson]

This looks increasingly like a close race ...

I predict 49.5-49.0, with a surprisingly high 1-2% for write-ins.

I still need to decide who will get the 49.5% and who will end up with 49.0% ...

[Mr. Morden]

[Kamala]

White women... sigh.

[MT Treasurer]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

[Mr. Morden]

Do you think Moore did or did not make unwanted advances toward teenage girls, or are you not sure?

he did 35%
he didn’t 28%
not sure 37%

among Democrats:

he did 60%
he didn’t 6%
not sure 34%

among Republicans:

he did 13%
he didn’t 46%
not sure 41%

[Tender Branson]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.

This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...

[Person Man]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.

This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...

It would be funny if this race isn't called until past my bedtime. Then again, weird sh**t like this is a kind of meth for me.

[junior chįmp]

Which candidate do you trust more to handle the issue of abortion?
Moore - 47%
Jones - 46%

That’s....surprising right?

Because as I said earlier,...nobody actually cares about abortion. Even most Republicans just go along with it and pretending to care

[MT Treasurer]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.

This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...

We've heard it before.

I'm skeptical that Republicans can win a special election here given that Democratic turnout is likely to be through the roof and Jones is probably being underpolled. Those allegations do matter, whether people like to believe it or not.

[OkThen]

Anyone with more knowledge on AL, would Jones getting 33% of whites be enough to get him over the top? I also found that abortion split very interesting...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Anyone with more knowledge on AL, would Jones getting 33% of whites be enough to get him over the top? I also found that abortion split very interesting...

Almost. He needs really good black turnout (percentage wise) to win with 33% of white voters, or for a lot of white voters to back a candidate not named Moore.

35% White voters would likely put him over the top, even with only good black turnout.

[Holmes]

Anyone with more knowledge on AL, would Jones getting 33% of whites be enough to get him over the top? I also found that abortion split very interesting...

If the margin among white voters is only 30% and Jones take 93-94% of the black vote and 70-75% of the rest, then yes. But it really depends on turnout - if the electorate is 68% white/28% black like in 2012, that would be more than enough.

[Tender Branson]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.

This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...

We've heard it before.

I'm skeptical that Republicans can win a special election here given that Democratic turnout is likely to be through the roof and Jones is probably being underpolled. Those allegations do matter, whether people like to believe it or not.

Not entirely comparable.

AL is roughly 10% more Republican than Missouri, McCaskill was (is) a sitting Senator while Jones is not, etc.

I think Alabama being such a Republican state will cancel out Moore's (alleged) failings in the past. And the tax plan (a plus for Trump and the GOP with voters) will likely also cancel out his general unpopularity (in AL he's actually above-water with 50-55% approvals).

Moore might slightly win by 0.1% to 3%, or slightly lose.

I guess it won't be a blowout for either candidate ... (but the trend from the special elections in GA, MT, KS, UT etc. suggest that Moore could slightly pull it out).

[windjammer]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.

This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...

We've heard it before.

I'm skeptical that Republicans can win a special election here given that Democratic turnout is likely to be through the roof and Jones is probably being underpolled. Those allegations do matter, whether people like to believe it or not.

It is so difficult to predict. It could go from Jones+5 to Moore +10.

[Tender Branson]

It would be nice if we'd get a Mason-Dixon or SurveyUSA poll for Alabama ...

And what about PPP ? Have they given up polling after their recent failures ?

[Former Kentuckian]

I'm trying really hard (and failing) at ignoring this race because I don't want to get my hopes up. I can't wait for it to be over, no matter the outcome, at this point. It feels like it's been going on forever, the polls are all over the place, and it's driving me crazy.

[Brittain33]

It would be nice if we'd get a Mason-Dixon or SurveyUSA poll for Alabama ...

Based on their history, I predict Mason-Dixon would give us something completely useless like:

Moore: 41%
Jones: 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would be nice if we'd get a Mason-Dixon or SurveyUSA poll for Alabama ...

And what about PPP ? Have they given up polling after their recent failures ?

PPP hasn't given up.  You can see their recent polls here.  But they probably wouldn't poll this unless a client was paying for it.