538 2020 commentary megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the result of the latest 2020 Democratic primary draft, discussed here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-for-a-new-2020-democratic-primary-draft/

1) Sanders (c)
2) Harris (n)
3) Baldwin (j)
4) Gillibrand (m)
5) Biden (m)
6) Patrick (j)
7) Warren (n)
8 ) Ryan (c)
9) Schultz (c)
10) Winfrey (n)
11) Kander (j)
12) Klobuchar (m)
13) Bullock (m)
14) Castro (j)
15) Booker (n)
16) Landrieu
17) Holder (c)
18) Clinton (n)
19) Hickenlooper (j)
20) M. Obama (m)
21) Brown (m)
22) Yates (j)
23) Jones (n)
24) Cuban (c)

c = picked by Clare
n = picked by Nate
j = picked by Julia
m = picked by Micah

[CatoMinor]

fivethirtyeight 2020 commentary megathread*

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate's with her! #Kamala2020

But unfortunately, they're right. Harris is going to get a lot of nasty attacks for being a woman of color.  Just check Twitter, people are vile towards her.

[Mr. Morden]

Nate's with her! #Kamala2020

But unfortunately, they're right. Harris is going to get a lot of nasty attacks for being a woman of color.

See, I still think it's more likely a net benefit in terms of winning the Democratic nomination in a crowded field.  Harris would not be getting as much presidential attention right now if she were a white male.  The GE is a different story.  In general, the 538 commenters don't tend to do much to distinguish between things that are liabilities for the primary vs. the GE.

[JG]

I'm still confused as to why Nate Silver is still so convinced Hillary would even come close to winning a contested convention. Most democrats seem determined to distance themselves from the Clinton machine. I don't see how she would win a majority of delegates.

[Ogre Mage]

Julia's picks are awful.

[henster]

Nate's with her! #Kamala2020

But unfortunately, they're right. Harris is going to get a lot of nasty attacks for being a woman of color.  Just check Twitter, people are vile towards her.

Come on, Kamala being a POC is her biggest asset by far she would not be a contender if she wasn't. She would be the least experienced of the women running and the only that makes her stand out of Warren, Gillibrand, Klobuchar is she's a POC. Her biggest liability will be her record as a prosectur.

[MechaBambi]

Nate's with her! #Kamala2020

But unfortunately, they're right. Harris is going to get a lot of nasty attacks for being a woman of color.  Just check Twitter, people are vile towards her.

People are vile towards anyone and anything on Twitter, so that in itself doesn't prove much. It's easy to write the clickbait article accusing leftists and progressives of waging targeted online warfare against women and candidates of color, but these invariably fail to note the number of white male centrists that have also sparked left-wing ire. From my experience, the most despised 2020 prospects on left Twitter are Joe Biden and Andrew Cuomo, with Kamala Harris falling somewhere in the middle of the pack.

This is not to deny that Harris would face a bevy of race- and gender-based attacks in the general, but in the post-Trump Democratic Party, being a woman of color is probably more of an advantage than a disadvantage, all else being equal. (Obviously, all else is not equal. But the institutional barriers facing a first-time candidate who is a woman of color are not exactly the type of barriers Harris would have to overcome to win.)

[Da2017]

Nate's with her! #Kamala2020

But unfortunately, they're right. Harris is going to get a lot of nasty attacks for being a woman of color.  Just check Twitter, people are vile towards her.

People are vile towards anyone and anything on Twitter, so that in itself doesn't prove much. It's easy to write the clickbait article accusing leftists and progressives of waging targeted online warfare against women and candidates of color, but these invariably fail to note the number of white male centrists that have also sparked left-wing ire. From my experience, the most despised 2020 prospects on left Twitter are Joe Biden and Andrew Cuomo, with Kamala Harris falling somewhere in the middle of the pack.

This is not to deny that Harris would face a bevy of race- and gender-based attacks in the general, but in the post-Trump Democratic Party, being a woman of color is probably more of an advantage than a disadvantage, all else being equal. (Obviously, all else is not equal. But the institutional barriers facing a first-time candidate who is a woman of color are not exactly the type of barriers Harris would have to overcome to win.)

Booker is up there. Gillibrand is about even with Harris maybe a bit less.

[Karpatsky]

A solid half of these are joke candidates. This does not paint 538 in a good light.

[kyc0705]

This chat is beautiful:



@a disturbing amount of Atlas who have, at one point or another, unironically woshipped about the presidential prospects of a failed Senate candidate from two years ago

[MechaBambi]

@a disturbing amount of Atlas who have, at one point or another, unironically woshipped about the presidential prospects of a failed Senate candidate from two years ago

I don't worship him but you shouldn't count him out either. He's in a better position to be the dark horse than any of these other second and third-tier prospects. Plus, he's 100% running, which already gives him a higher probability to win than perennial Atlas favorite Sherrod Brown. Yes, nominating a failed Senate candidate would be objectively insane, but he's doing everything in his power to make party insiders and activists think of him as not just a failed Senate candidate.  I would even put him at the bottom of the first tier of candidates, below Booker but above Gillibrand.

[henster]

Kander's problem is he would be sharing the stage with Senators, Govs, Mayors all talking up their accomplishments and all he could talk about is almost winning a Senate race and starting a GOTV org. Yes, Trump lowered the bar qualifications wise but he still had a record to run on, 'I ran a biz/created jobs etc'.

[Del Tachi]

How do Cuomo and McAuliffe not make the list???

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How do Cuomo and McAuliffe not make the list???

Because they have 0 appeal to the dem primary base and barely anyone knows them outside of their states

[jmsstnyng]

I agree that Kander could be stronger than people expect, though his lack of national experience will weigh him down against the front-runners. I think Kander will highlight his military service as well, which could help with his national inexperience.

[Del Tachi]

How do Cuomo and McAuliffe not make the list???

Because they have 0 appeal to the dem primary base and barely anyone knows them outside of their states

Both of those assertions are wrong and its laughable to think that McAuliffe and Cuomo have lower chances of being the Democratic nominee than Winfrey and Michelle Obama (who have both categorically ruled-out running for President) and no-names like Sally Yates and Mitch Landrieu. 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How do Cuomo and McAuliffe not make the list???

Because they have 0 appeal to the dem primary base and barely anyone knows them outside of their states

Both of those assertions are wrong and its laughable to think that McAuliffe and Cuomo have lower chances of being the Democratic nominee than Winfrey and Michelle Obama (who have both categorically ruled-out running for President) and no-names like Sally Yates and Mitch Landrieu.  

Are you kidding me? Do you not see the fact that Cuomo might not even survive a primary as an INCUMBENT? What makes you think he could possibly win a dem primary in 2020? I think he survives by 15-20 pts, but the fact that it is even close shows Cuomo would have a HORRIBLE chance at winning a dem primary in 2020.

And only political nerds know who the hell McAuliffle is. He is irrelevant now (besides to dem donors, I guess). Nobody wants a Clinton-ite as the head of the party anymore. Notice how literally no democrat ever mentions Cuomo or McAuliffle in a sentence. Why would they win a dem primary in a million years if they are completely unknown and never poll above 0%?

[Del Tachi]

How do Cuomo and McAuliffe not make the list???

Because they have 0 appeal to the dem primary base and barely anyone knows them outside of their states

Both of those assertions are wrong and its laughable to think that McAuliffe and Cuomo have lower chances of being the Democratic nominee than Winfrey and Michelle Obama (who have both categorically ruled-out running for President) and no-names like Sally Yates and Mitch Landrieu. 

Are you kidding me? Do you not see the fact that Cuomo might not even survive a primary as an INCUMBENT? What makes you think he could possibly win a dem primary in 2020? I think he survives by 15-20 pts, but the fact that it is even close shows Cuomo would have a HORRIBLE chance at winning a dem primary in 2020.

And only political nerds know who the hell McAuliffle is. He is irrelevant now (besides to dem donors, I guess). Nobody wants a Clinton-ite as the head of the party anymore. Notice how literally no democrat ever mentions Cuomo or McAuliffle in a sentence. Why would they win a dem primary in a million years if they are completely unknown and never poll above 0%?

I never said that Cuomo or McAuliffe would be nominated.  But is asinine to think that Michelle Obama or Oprah have better chances of being the nominee than they do.  Cuomo and McAuliffe has at least both pretty clearly indicated their interest in running, which automatically makes them infinitely more likely to win than people, like Oprah and Obama, who have said they are NOT RUNNING.

This is literally one of the things I hate the most about the 2020 subforum.  The institutional advantages that Cuomo has from being governor of the fourth most-populous state and McAuliffe has from being a fundraising stalwart and long-time Clinton ally are some of the most important determinants for which candidate will be able to clear the "establishment" lane and become an automatic frontrunner in the primary.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How do Cuomo and McAuliffe not make the list???

Because they have 0 appeal to the dem primary base and barely anyone knows them outside of their states

Both of those assertions are wrong and its laughable to think that McAuliffe and Cuomo have lower chances of being the Democratic nominee than Winfrey and Michelle Obama (who have both categorically ruled-out running for President) and no-names like Sally Yates and Mitch Landrieu. 

Are you kidding me? Do you not see the fact that Cuomo might not even survive a primary as an INCUMBENT? What makes you think he could possibly win a dem primary in 2020? I think he survives by 15-20 pts, but the fact that it is even close shows Cuomo would have a HORRIBLE chance at winning a dem primary in 2020.

And only political nerds know who the hell McAuliffle is. He is irrelevant now (besides to dem donors, I guess). Nobody wants a Clinton-ite as the head of the party anymore. Notice how literally no democrat ever mentions Cuomo or McAuliffle in a sentence. Why would they win a dem primary in a million years if they are completely unknown and never poll above 0%?

I never said that Cuomo or McAuliffe would be nominated.  But is asinine to think that Michelle Obama or Oprah have better chances of being the nominee than they do.  Cuomo and McAuliffe has at least both pretty clearly indicated their interest in running, which automatically makes them infinitely more likely to win than people, like Oprah and Obama, who have said they are NOT RUNNING.

This is literally one of the things I hate the most about the 2020 subforum.  The institutional advantages that Cuomo has from being governor of the fourth most-populous state and McAuliffe has from being a fundraising stalwart and long-time Clinton ally are some of the most important determinants for which candidate will be able to clear the "establishment" lane and become an automatic frontrunner in the primary.

This is true, but I think Oprah is still leaving it open? Michelle has pretty clearly denied it multiple times, but Oprah said she would run if she had a sign from god or something.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

They spent an entire slack chat talking about Tim Ryan's "yoga vote" comment:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-yoga-vote-a-thing/

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s their latest snake draft on who is most likely to be the nominee:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/

1) Warren (c)
2) Harris (g)
3) Gillibrand (s)
4) Biden (n)
5) Sanders (n)
6) Booker (s)
7) O’Rourke (g)
8 ) Holder (c)
9) Avenatti (c)
10) Klobuchar (g)
11) Merkley (s)
12) Brown (n)
13) Winfrey (n)
14) Hirono (s)
15) Hickenlooper (g)
16) Dwayne Johnson (c)
17) M. Obama (c)
18) Patrick (g)
19) Delaney (s)
20) Garcetti (n)
21) Jones (n)
22) Inslee (s)
23) Gillum (g)
24) Landrieu (c)

c = picked by Clare
g = picked by Geoff
s = picked by Sarah
n = picked by Nate

[RedPrometheus]

I had this snake draft thing. It makes for a completely nonsensical order of potential candidates while suggesting a hierarchy.

[Grassroots]

Here’s their latest snake draft on who is most likely to be the nominee:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/

1) Warren (c)
2) Harris (g)
3) Gillibrand (s)
4) Biden (n)
5) Sanders (n)
6) Booker (s)
7) O’Rourke (g)
8 ) Holder (c)
9) Avenatti (c)
10) Klobuchar (g)
11) Merkley (s)
12) Brown (n)
13) Winfrey (n)
14) Hirono (s)
15) Hickenlooper (g)
16) Dwayne Johnson (c)
17) M. Obama (c)
18) Patrick (g)
19) Delaney (s)
20) Garcetti (n)
21) Jones (n)
22) Inslee (s)
23) Gillum (g)
24) Landrieu (c)

c = picked by Clare
g = picked by Geoff
s = picked by Sarah
n = picked by Nate

Does Bullock like no longer exist? What is this?

[Mr. Morden]

Discussion here of the impact of the midterms on who will run for prez:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-midterms-decide-who-runs-in-2020/

The most sensible comment there was this one:

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