1980: Ford beats Carter in ‘76...

[dw93]

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976. My guess is either Hugh Carey, John Glenn, Frank Church, or even Jerry Brown or Walter Mondale would be the Democratic Nominee in 1980. Considering that Reagan damn near beat Ford for the nomination in 1976, he beats would be VP Dole for it in 1980 as Dole was never a strong Presidential Candidate. My guess is the Map would look something like this:

Governor Hugh Carey / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (Democratic): 335 EV, 52% PV
Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan / Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (Republican): 203 EV, 47% PV

Things would go badly for Ford just like they did with Carter, so that benefits the Democrats, but it isn't a landslide defeat for the GOP, as Ford would handle said issues slightly better than Carter did. If Reubin Askew is on the ticket instead of Bentsen, switch Texas with Florida. If Dole does somehow manage to beat Reagan for the nomination, or if Jerry Brown ends up on the Democratic ticket, California could go Democratic.

[dw93]

If Dole does somehow manage to beat Reagan for the nomination, or if Jerry Brown ends up on the Democratic ticket, California could go Democratic.

Why might Dole getting the GOP nomination cause California to go Democratic?

Reagan's home state advantage. Ford's margin of victory in California in 76, if I remember correctly, wasn't big at all. The Dems could flip it without him on the ticket. 

[dw93]

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.

He ran because, IRC, there was pressure on him from liberals in the party to do so. When asked in an interview that year why he wanted to be President, he couldn’t give a straight answer. It’s for those reasons that I think he never wanted to be President. I also don’t think he would’ve won two terms if he was ever elected.

[dw93]

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.

He ran because, IRC, there was pressure on him from liberals in the party to do so. When asked in an interview that year why he wanted to be President, he couldn’t give a straight answer. It’s for those reasons that I think he never wanted to be President. I also don’t think he would’ve won two terms if he was ever elected.

I know he fumbled that interview but I find it hard to believe he didn’t WANT to be President. I think he had severe reservations because of what happened to his brothers, I really do.

And would he have won two terms if he was ever elected? I say, most likely. Now dont get me wrong he wasn’t in the same league as JFK or RFK as a politician, as a person, as a leader and in terms of popularity. They were both overwhelmingly popular amongst most Americans, while Ted was only popular to the far left. With that being said, in MOST cases the incumbent President has a huge advantage when running for re-election (exceptions being: When the party has been in the WH for 3 terms already, when a major negative event takes place, a major scandal rocks the party in power OR if the President is EXTREMLY unpopular/incompetent such as Hoover, Carter & of course Trump). Also Teddy had great political instincts and likely would’ve been able to pass a lot of legislation. Lastly, the popularity of the Kennedys and oh yah, the finances of the Kennedy’s)’...

Okay, so Ted might've wanted to be President. He had horrible Presidential instincts though. Instead of running in years where the Democrats had an honest to god shot at winning (1976, even 1988 or 1992) he chose the primary challenge an incumbent President, and while Incumbents have lost General Elections, they've never been denied re nomination, at least not in the last Century, even Taft got re nominated over TR, and LBJ almost certainly would've if he chose to stay in the race in 1968. While I don't think Teddy cost Carter the election that year, primary challenging him certainly did hurt. Not to mention, Ted was key to blocking Carter's attempt at health care reform for the sake of his primary challenge. Just think at how much better off we'd be today if he hadn't done that. Teddy also considered challenging Reagan in 1984, yet another year that was gonna be bad for the Dems.

As far as winning a second term if elected President, I think it is possible that he does, but I say that I think he'd lose because Ted, like his brothers, was a womanizer and fancied the drink. The difference between him and his brothers was that his brothers were damn good about keeping their shortcomings hidden. Ted wasn't, nor was he like Bill Clinton to where he could talk the problems away or at least look sad, say he was sorry and have enough people believe him. I think this would've hurt him and this is why I don't think he would've ever won the presidency in any kind of landslide (not even in 1976).