1980: Ford beats Carter in ‘76...
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  1980: Ford beats Carter in ‘76...
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Author Topic: 1980: Ford beats Carter in ‘76...  (Read 1278 times)
MillennialModerate
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« on: November 29, 2017, 05:05:15 AM »
« edited: November 29, 2017, 08:04:35 AM by MillennialMAModerate »

After the Watergate scandal, a grateful American people appreciate the honor & class of a guy like Gerald Ford. Because of this he is elected to his first full term in 1976, edging out Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter in 1976.

 He runs again for the final time in 1980. He’s seen as a sensible and steady hand for the country but the previous 6 years (especially the past three) have been rough to say the least...

After 12 years of GOP rule in the White House, Democrats turn to a ticket of Ted Kennedy and Lloyd Bentsen......How does this go?
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Kevin
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2017, 07:22:44 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2017, 12:45:38 PM by Kevin »

After the Watergate scandal, a grateful American people appreciate then honor & class of a guy like Gerald Ford. Because of this he is elected to his first full term in 1976, edging out Georgia Governor in 1976.

 He runs again for the final time in 1980. He’s seen as a sensible and steady hand for the country but the previous 6 years (especially the past three) have been rough to say the least...

After 12 years of GOP rule in the White House, Democrats turn to a ticket of Ted Kennedy and Lloyd Bentsen......How does this go?

If the foreign policy and economic situation was as dire as it was under Carter then probably the Democrats.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2017, 09:55:43 AM »

As he served more than two years of Nixon's remaining term (August 1974 to January 1977), Ford would have been ineligible to run again in 1980 due to the 22nd amendment, had he been reelected in 1976.

I suppose Ford's reelection in 1976 would have resulted in something like this:



✓ Former Governor Reubin Askew (D-FL)/Senator John Glenn (D-OH): 340 EVs.; 51.8%
Vice President Bob Dole (R-KS)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 198 EVs.; 46.6%

After 12 years of GOP White House control, the pendulum swings back.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2017, 11:38:08 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2017, 01:23:19 PM by MillennialMAModerate »

As he served more than two years of Nixon's remaining term (August 1974 to January 1977), Ford would have been ineligible to run again in 1980 due to the 22nd amendment, had he been reelected in 1976.

Okay then answer it one of two ways:

If ineligible to run in ‘80, how does the 1980 election go with Ted Kennedy/Lloyd Bentsen versus either Dole or Reagan in ‘80
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2017, 10:06:55 PM »

Ford passes a tax cut of 5% on the bottom four brackets, raises the salary of all military by 20%, and increases the welfare spending by 15.5%. This agreement with the Democrats allows the economy to quickly recover, with unemployment hitting 4% in 1978. Ford receives a 54-seat majority in the Senate, as well as 181 seats in the House. Once unemployment hits 3.5% in 1979, he cuts the welfare increase and raises the top four brackets rates by 6% and the bottom four by 3%, creating a near-balanced budget. A sales tax of 16.5% is passed, 59-39 in the Senate and 220-211 in the House, allowing the budget to be fully balanced. With Ford also pledging a 40% increase in NASA spending, another moon landing takes place in August of 1980.



291: Senator Mark Hatfield/Attorney General Edward Brooke - 48.0%
247: Senator Howell Heflin/Fmr. Governor Reubin Askew - 43.6%
Shirley Chisholm/La Donna Harris - 6.1%
Others - 2.3%
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dw93
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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2017, 10:35:31 PM »

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976. My guess is either Hugh Carey, John Glenn, Frank Church, or even Jerry Brown or Walter Mondale would be the Democratic Nominee in 1980. Considering that Reagan damn near beat Ford for the nomination in 1976, he beats would be VP Dole for it in 1980 as Dole was never a strong Presidential Candidate. My guess is the Map would look something like this:

Governor Hugh Carey / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (Democratic): 335 EV, 52% PV
Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan / Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (Republican): 203 EV, 47% PV



Things would go badly for Ford just like they did with Carter, so that benefits the Democrats, but it isn't a landslide defeat for the GOP, as Ford would handle said issues slightly better than Carter did. If Reubin Askew is on the ticket instead of Bentsen, switch Texas with Florida. If Dole does somehow manage to beat Reagan for the nomination, or if Jerry Brown ends up on the Democratic ticket, California could go Democratic.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2017, 10:47:26 PM »

If Dole does somehow manage to beat Reagan for the nomination, or if Jerry Brown ends up on the Democratic ticket, California could go Democratic.
Why might Dole getting the GOP nomination cause California to go Democratic?
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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2017, 11:01:03 PM »

If Dole does somehow manage to beat Reagan for the nomination, or if Jerry Brown ends up on the Democratic ticket, California could go Democratic.
Why might Dole getting the GOP nomination cause California to go Democratic?

Reagan's home state advantage. Ford's margin of victory in California in 76, if I remember correctly, wasn't big at all. The Dems could flip it without him on the ticket. 
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2017, 07:01:17 AM »

Ford passes a tax cut of 5% on the bottom four brackets, raises the salary of all military by 20%, and increases the welfare spending by 15.5%. This agreement with the Democrats allows the economy to quickly recover, with unemployment hitting 4% in 1978. Ford receives a 54-seat majority in the Senate, as well as 181 seats in the House. Once unemployment hits 3.5% in 1979, he cuts the welfare increase and raises the top four brackets rates by 6% and the bottom four by 3%, creating a near-balanced budget. A sales tax of 16.5% is passed, 59-39 in the Senate and 220-211 in the House, allowing the budget to be fully balanced. With Ford also pledging a 40% increase in NASA spending, another moon landing takes place in August of 1980.



291: Senator Mark Hatfield/Attorney General Edward Brooke - 48.0%
247: Senator Howell Heflin/Fmr. Governor Reubin Askew - 43.6%
Shirley Chisholm/La Donna Harris - 6.1%
Others - 2.3%

Afterwards, either Hatfield is assassinated and Brooke looses handily to Askew or Nunn, or Hatfield feels forced to step down when Defense Secretary Barry Goldwater, Attorney General Norma Paulus, Chief of Staff William Buckley, and Treasury Secretary Roy Goodman informed him that they intended to resign if the party can’t be brought together.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2017, 08:27:55 AM »

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.
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dw93
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2017, 10:34:25 AM »

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.

He ran because, IRC, there was pressure on him from liberals in the party to do so. When asked in an interview that year why he wanted to be President, he couldn’t give a straight answer. It’s for those reasons that I think he never wanted to be President. I also don’t think he would’ve won two terms if he was ever elected.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2017, 11:47:12 AM »

If Dole does somehow manage to beat Reagan for the nomination, or if Jerry Brown ends up on the Democratic ticket, California could go Democratic.
Why might Dole getting the GOP nomination cause California to go Democratic?
IRL Ford won California by less than 2%, so basically any Republican who wasn't from California would have had a great chance of losing the state.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2017, 04:46:26 PM »

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.

He ran because, IRC, there was pressure on him from liberals in the party to do so. When asked in an interview that year why he wanted to be President, he couldn’t give a straight answer. It’s for those reasons that I think he never wanted to be President. I also don’t think he would’ve won two terms if he was ever elected.

I know he fumbled that interview but I find it hard to believe he didn’t WANT to be President. I think he had severe reservations because of what happened to his brothers, I really do.

And would he have won two terms if he was ever elected? I say, most likely. Now dont get me wrong he wasn’t in the same league as JFK or RFK as a politician, as a person, as a leader and in terms of popularity. They were both overwhelmingly popular amongst most Americans, while Ted was only popular to the far left. With that being said, in MOST cases the incumbent President has a huge advantage when running for re-election (exceptions being: When the party has been in the WH for 3 terms already, when a major negative event takes place, a major scandal rocks the party in power OR if the President is EXTREMLY unpopular/incompetent such as Hoover, Carter & of course Trump). Also Teddy had great political instincts and likely would’ve been able to pass a lot of legislation. Lastly, the popularity of the Kennedys and oh yah, the finances of the Kennedy’s)’...
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dw93
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2017, 02:54:32 PM »

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.

He ran because, IRC, there was pressure on him from liberals in the party to do so. When asked in an interview that year why he wanted to be President, he couldn’t give a straight answer. It’s for those reasons that I think he never wanted to be President. I also don’t think he would’ve won two terms if he was ever elected.

I know he fumbled that interview but I find it hard to believe he didn’t WANT to be President. I think he had severe reservations because of what happened to his brothers, I really do.

And would he have won two terms if he was ever elected? I say, most likely. Now dont get me wrong he wasn’t in the same league as JFK or RFK as a politician, as a person, as a leader and in terms of popularity. They were both overwhelmingly popular amongst most Americans, while Ted was only popular to the far left. With that being said, in MOST cases the incumbent President has a huge advantage when running for re-election (exceptions being: When the party has been in the WH for 3 terms already, when a major negative event takes place, a major scandal rocks the party in power OR if the President is EXTREMLY unpopular/incompetent such as Hoover, Carter & of course Trump). Also Teddy had great political instincts and likely would’ve been able to pass a lot of legislation. Lastly, the popularity of the Kennedys and oh yah, the finances of the Kennedy’s)’...

Okay, so Ted might've wanted to be President. He had horrible Presidential instincts though. Instead of running in years where the Democrats had an honest to god shot at winning (1976, even 1988 or 1992) he chose the primary challenge an incumbent President, and while Incumbents have lost General Elections, they've never been denied re nomination, at least not in the last Century, even Taft got re nominated over TR, and LBJ almost certainly would've if he chose to stay in the race in 1968. While I don't think Teddy cost Carter the election that year, primary challenging him certainly did hurt. Not to mention, Ted was key to blocking Carter's attempt at health care reform for the sake of his primary challenge. Just think at how much better off we'd be today if he hadn't done that. Teddy also considered challenging Reagan in 1984, yet another year that was gonna be bad for the Dems.

As far as winning a second term if elected President, I think it is possible that he does, but I say that I think he'd lose because Ted, like his brothers, was a womanizer and fancied the drink. The difference between him and his brothers was that his brothers were damn good about keeping their shortcomings hidden. Ted wasn't, nor was he like Bill Clinton to where he could talk the problems away or at least look sad, say he was sorry and have enough people believe him. I think this would've hurt him and this is why I don't think he would've ever won the presidency in any kind of landslide (not even in 1976).
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2020, 10:13:39 AM »



Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (R-IL)
Senator John Glenn (D-OH) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) ✓

With America undergoing a rightward shift since 1968, Reagan's ideas would still be popular with Americans but his party wouldn't, so it's a close one.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2020, 10:48:05 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 11:08:10 AM by Frank »

I don't think Teddy would run in this scenario. If he really wanted to be President, he would've ran in 1976.

I often wonder why he didn’t run in 1976. He either thought Chappiquidick would be too fresh or he was worried after what happened to his brothers.Or he really didn’t want to be President which I kind of find hard to believe when you think about the “next man up” and duty to carry on the legacy which is so prevalent in that family.

If he runs in 1976, he wins in a landslide.

But back to 1980. Why would he run in this scenario? He ran in what was a much harder scenario, unseating the sitting President from his own party.

If you saw the post I made of the Literary Digest from the book "The Experts Speak," a compendium of experts being wrong, the same book also reported:  "Exactly one year  before the 1976 Presidential election, U.S News and World Report asked the membership of the DNC "who do you think will win the Democratic nomination?"

Hubert Humphrey 49%
Henry 'Scoop' Jackson 14%
Edward Kennedy 8%
(Jimmy Carter was at 3%)

So, it's more than possible that Edward Kennedy didn't run because he thought Hubert Humphrey would.  Hubert Humphrey also didn't run in part because he thought Kennedy would.  (This is game theory at its finest.)
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2020, 10:52:01 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 03:41:22 PM by Frank »

There are a couple points here, Ford almost certainly would have beaten Carter had he not pardoned Nixon, however, I think it's much less likely Carter would have won the Democratic nomination had Ford not pardoned Nixon.  Who knows what would have happened if the election in 1976 would have been Ford vs. Henry 'Scoop' Jackson?

It's always said that the subsequent President is a contrast to the previous President.  The problem with this as a guide is it's easy to argue in hindsight, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything because it's also often easy to find some significant difference of one President to the previous President, but also some significant similarity.

In the case of Jimmy Carter, it was argued that his honesty was a direct contrast to Nixon (the previous elected President.)  However, it could also be argued that Ford's simplicity (not to be confused with simple mindedness) was a direct contrast to Nixon's complexity.

In this way, Carter could also be seen as being just as complex and strange as Nixon was.

So, had Ford not pardoned Nixon, he also could have been seen as an acceptable contrast to the preceding President, Nixon.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2020, 10:59:41 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 11:06:52 AM by Frank »

Ford passes a tax cut of 5% on the bottom four brackets, raises the salary of all military by 20%, and increases the welfare spending by 15.5%. This agreement with the Democrats allows the economy to quickly recover, with unemployment hitting 4% in 1978. Ford receives a 54-seat majority in the Senate, as well as 181 seats in the House. Once unemployment hits 3.5% in 1979, he cuts the welfare increase and raises the top four brackets rates by 6% and the bottom four by 3%, creating a near-balanced budget. A sales tax of 16.5% is passed, 59-39 in the Senate and 220-211 in the House, allowing the budget to be fully balanced. With Ford also pledging a 40% increase in NASA spending, another moon landing takes place in August of 1980.



291: Senator Mark Hatfield/Attorney General Edward Brooke - 48.0%
247: Senator Howell Heflin/Fmr. Governor Reubin Askew - 43.6%
Shirley Chisholm/La Donna Harris - 6.1%
Others - 2.3%

Ford closed the gap in the 1976 election quite considerably, as we know. That has been credited at least in part to Carter's comment that he 'lusted in his heart' (and doing so in an interview with Playboy) but I think the bigger factor was likely that the economy in 1976 was doing quite well.

The economy throughout most of the 1970s was much stronger than was believed at the time.  In the 1970s real GDP growth was compared unfavorably to the 1950s and 1960s, but with the benefit of hindsight, it can now be compared to the 1980s and beyond, and job and real GDP growth in the 1970s was mostly quite strong.  It had ups and downs probably related to the high inflation which likely reduced confidence in the economy than had it been more consistent growth.

However, the only time the economy performed really poorly in the 1970s was during and after the two oil shocks in 1973 and in 1979.

In regards here to the 1979 oil shock, it's possible with Ford being President that the Shah of Iran would either have remained in power or would have been eased out of power with the Ayatollah not coming to power, in which case, the 1979 oil shock would never have occurred.  

Other than that, in regards to the high inflation, I don't know what Ford's views were regarding embracing the monetarism of Milton Friedman and giving the Federal Reserve the full power to really Whip Inflation Now.
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