Which safe D states are likely to become swing/red states any time soon?

[King Lear]

The only one of these states republicans could have a shot at in the near future is Oregon. As someone who recently visited there you would be amazed to see how rural the state is, if republicans start racking up Appalachian style margins among white rural voters there they could easily overwhelm the city of Portland.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If the dems adopt protectionism and start going far left on environmental issues + more libertarian GOP, I could see Oregon get more competitive.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If the democrats become more neoliberal and corporatist and the GOP  becomes more and more trump like(while rejecting evangelicalism), then Rhode Island will flip. If a Sanders-esque person takes over and the GOP becomes more like Todd Young/Ben Sasse(while rejecting evangelicalism), Connecticut will flip instead.  The RI flip could happen as early as 2028. Of course the second scenario where CT flips would take a decade or two to come to pass, as those two factions I described do not appear to be in control of the parties at this moment. Rhode Island would be lean Democrat in scenario 2(has lots of rich whites, but just as many working class populist that sanders would appeal to.), while Connecticut would be Safe Democrat in Scenario 1.

[RINO Tom]

If the dems adopt protectionism and start going far left on environmental issues + more libertarian GOP, I could see Oregon get more competitive.

Are we sure protectionism wouldn't be totally and completely acceptable in Oregon...?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If the dems adopt protectionism and start going far left on environmental issues + more libertarian GOP, I could see Oregon get more competitive.

Are we sure protectionism wouldn't be totally and completely acceptable in Oregon...?

Most of the elected dems there seem to be in favor of free trade. Apparently their economy depends on it.

[Bidenworth2020]

Rhode Island is really the only one I could see becoming a swing or maybe Republican-leaning state (with a very high Democratic floor, though). VT, IL and OR would be next, but those states would be incredibly hard to flip. You'd really need a realignment for that to happen.

you could say it is like democratic NV

[RINO Tom]

If the dems adopt protectionism and start going far left on environmental issues + more libertarian GOP, I could see Oregon get more competitive.

Are we sure protectionism wouldn't be totally and completely acceptable in Oregon...?

Most of the elected dems there seem to be in favor of free trade. Apparently their economy depends on it.

I just remember one of our S-OR posters suggesting that Portland's rather hippie status made it actually pretty left-wing on the issue and that rural Oregon has been hit very hard be free trade because of the lumber mills or whatever.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Safe D states for president?  Probably Illinois, Delaware, Oregon, or Washington.  As the older generation of Republicans dies off and Gen Y takes over, the GOP will start to take a more moderate libertarian bent, which will help in places like that.  Many of these are already swing states at the state level and have been for some time.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

[RINO Tom]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

I'm not sure it will become a GOP state at all, but I don't think the Democratic and Republican Parties of, say, 2040 will be "Clinton vs. Trump."

[libertpaulian]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

1. Favorite daughter effect.
2. Trump was a uniquely bad fit for IL.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

I'm not sure it will become a GOP state at all, but I don't think the Democratic and Republican Parties of, say, 2040 will be "Clinton vs. Trump."

Yeah, no one really knows what the parties will look like 20-30 years from now.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

1. Favorite daughter effect.
2. Trump was a uniquely bad fit for IL.

Trump was a bad fit for the collar counties but he was a great fit for downstate. Other Republicans like Rubio or Cruz would be the opposite for example, they would do better in collar counties but would do worse downstate. Someone who could do well in both is someone like Peter King, doesn't care as much about religion and moderate but very opinionated and blunt. I know he'll never run but he's a good example of what republicans would have to do at this stage to win IL.

[Xing]

I guess Delaware is the most likely (lol at WA and OR), but barring a realignment or an enormous shift in positions coming from both parties (or some kind of massive population shift), none of them are likely to become swing/red states. Yes, in a massive Republican landslide, a few of these states could flip, but that doesn't make them swing states.

[Dr. MB]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

1. Favorite daughter effect.
2. Trump was a uniquely bad fit for IL.

Trump was a bad fit for the collar counties but he was a great fit for downstate. Other Republicans like Rubio or Cruz would be the opposite for example, they would do better in collar counties but would do worse downstate. Someone who could do well in both is someone like Peter King, doesn't care as much about religion and moderate but very opinionated and blunt. I know he'll never run but he's a good example of what republicans would have to do at this stage to win IL.

Still, a Democrat could pull off a victory just by running up the margins in Cook County alone.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I'd say Illinois and Vermont. (Due to Chicago losing population and rural areas trending R) But I think Oregon going Republican in a good Republican year in the future isn't impossible. I'm guessing Oregon will still trend D though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I guess Delaware is the most likely (lol at WA and OR), but barring a realignment or an enormous shift in positions coming from both parties (or some kind of massive population shift), none of them are likely to become swing/red states. Yes, in a massive Republican landslide, a few of these states could flip, but that doesn't make them swing states.

OR is more republican than DE and really hasn’t trended that much D since 2004 and actually Trended R since 2008


In 2004 it’s PVI was : +6.5 percent
In 2008: +9 percent
In 2016: + 8.8 percent

[jamestroll]

Why do people think IL will become a GOP state? Downstate is losing population faster than Chicago, and it actually trended and swung towards Clinton (the only state in the Midwest to do so).

Yea it is perplexing And to be honest I think IL-Sen 2016 should scare the GOP the most. Kirk, despite being a decent fit for the collar counties, still lost most of them. And an Asian American female from Chicago way outperformed Hillary Clinton in downstate. Even if Kirk did better in DuPage county he still lost it. Duckworth won some pretty heavy Trump areas.

The state is demographically perfect for Democrats but it is still very elastic and flexible. All the Democrats who are clowns also assist in Republicans occasionally winning statewide.

[Skill and Chance]

IL and NY are the most plausible, pending population loss in the cities and further GOP trends in the rural areas.

[killertahu22]

Not Illinois, that’s what I’ll say

[Nyvin]

I guess Delaware is the most likely (lol at WA and OR), but barring a realignment or an enormous shift in positions coming from both parties (or some kind of massive population shift), none of them are likely to become swing/red states. Yes, in a massive Republican landslide, a few of these states could flip, but that doesn't make them swing states.

OR is more republican than DE and really hasn’t trended that much D since 2004 and actually Trended R since 2008


In 2004 it’s PVI was : +6.5 percent
In 2008: +9 percent
In 2016: + 8.8 percent

The kind of voters that vote Democratic in OR are VERY Democratic though, it's doubtful they ever become swing voters, and the Republicans don't have a lot of new voters coming into the state.

Even though there might be trends from one election to the next, I don't see any long term trend where Oregon becomes Republican.   The entire west coast seems to be going in the complete opposite direction from the national Republican Party.

[jamestroll]

IL and NY are the most plausible, pending population loss in the cities and further GOP trends in the rural areas.

and people think the New Hampshire meme here is stupid.

The Illinois will become gop meme is the most absurd meme on the forum

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

New York, if Long Island secedes.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

New York, if Long Island secedes.

What? NY without Long Island is still Solid D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New York, if Long Island secedes.

What? NY without Long Island is still Solid D.

Depends on how one defines Long Island - Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Kings, and Richmond counties being split off would make rump NY more R, but removing just Suffolk and Nassau would make it more Democratic.