Which safe D states are likely to become swing/red states any time soon?

[Free Bird]

Go. To compliment MT Treasurer's thread.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Rhode Island had one of the largest swings towards Trump. Relatively irreligious and socially liberal, but also predominately white, it has the potential to swing right more than most of the others on the list for the right candidate.
I also picked Delaware. It has a high democrat floor because of Wilmington's large black population, but the downstate is voting more and more like Eastern Maryland. Trump flipped Kent county. Maybe an erosion in democrat support with wealthier socially liberal whites around Newark could make DE a swing state.
My last pick was Oregon simply because it is really white, already has very conservative rural areas n the east, and is increasingly seeing the southwest turn republican as well. It could begin voting more like other states where it's the city (Portland in this case) vs the rest of the state. Unlike Chicago or NYC, Portland alone can't win it for dems.

The GOP is somewhat maxed out having made several blue states (MN, MI, PA, ME, etc) into swing states already.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

None of these are super likely, but I'd go with Rhode Island, since it's small, overwhelmingly white, and swung hard towards Trump in 2016. Oregon is probably the second most likely, and in fact I'd say Oregon would definitely be the first of these states to flip in a GOP landslide.

[Dr. MB]

None of these are super likely, but I'd go with Rhode Island, since it's small, overwhelmingly white, and swung hard towards Trump in 2016. Oregon is probably the second most likely, and in fact I'd say Oregon would definitely be the first of these states to flip in a GOP landslide.

I agree with Rhode Island, but have you ever been to Portland or Eugene? You'd get thrown out of the town if you put up a Trump sign (or more accurately, have it stolen and then have the city provide therapy for people who were affected by it). In the cities, there are ten times more marijuana shops than gun stores.

Oregon's elected Democratic governors every time since 1986 and only once has the Dem received over 52% of the vote (and that was against a guy who's been arrested for tax evasion more than once). It's not a strongly Democratic state, but it's Democratic enough that it's very hard for a Republican to win.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

None of these are super likely, but I'd go with Rhode Island, since it's small, overwhelmingly white, and swung hard towards Trump in 2016. Oregon is probably the second most likely, and in fact I'd say Oregon would definitely be the first of these states to flip in a GOP landslide.

I agree with Rhode Island, but have you ever been to Portland or Eugene? You'd get thrown out of the town if you put up a Trump sign (or more accurately, have it stolen and then have the city provide therapy for people who were affected by it). In the cities, there are ten times more marijuana shops than gun stores.

Oregon's elected Democratic governors every time since 1986 and only once has the Dem received over 52% of the vote (and that was against a guy who's been arrested for tax evasion more than once). It's not a strongly Democratic state, but it's Democratic enough that it's very hard for a Republican to win.

I think Oregon would flip before Rhode Island, but it wouldn't become a swing state or a lean-R state. It'd just be the first blue state to flip in a GOP landslide.

[Karpatsky]

The problem with this question is that we just saw this happen three times in the last election (WI,MI,PA were considered safe D by many), and so there aren't inspiring answers among what's left.

I'll be unconventional and suggest NM. If in response to blueing TX national Rs starts shifting towards Hispanics I could see it going the way of AZ.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The problem with this question is that we just saw this happen three times in the last election (WI,MI,PA were considered safe D by many), and so there aren't inspiring answers among what's left.

I'll be unconventional and suggest NM. If in response to blueing TX national Rs starts shifting towards Hispanics I could see it going the way of AZ.

I think the opposite is more likely - Arizona going the way of New Mexico.

[Strudelcutie4427]

RI would be hard given the massive Hispanic population in providence. The smaller towns would have to start going 70% GOP, including Newport and south county. I’d say maybe Vermont way down the road. It can’t stay rural white and the most liberal state forever

[dw93]

My home state of Illinois could be a swing state within the next decade or so if Cook County declines enough in population and/or if the Republican Party goes in a more socially moderate or libertarian direction. That aside, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Delaware are the most likely to flip.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon PVI is only +8- 8.5 Dem so it would flip in an 8.5 - 9 point GOP victory.


Heck it could flip this year if you had Kasich as GOP nominee , as he wins 6 points nationally and maybe Stein gets 3.5%-4% of the vote in Oregon.



Delaware would flip with Oregon in an 8.5-9 point GOP victory , but unlike Oregon I dont see the possibility of the green party candidate  getting 3% of the vote there so it wouldnt flip in a 6 point GOP win.

[MassTerp94]

I honestly have a hard time seeing ANY of these states becoming Republican in the near future. But of any of them, Rhode Island is the most likely. RI has a heavy blue collar white worker population and its younger residents generally move away (or cross into MA) for better opportunities.

I suppose Connecticut could flip, it has a high proportion of wealthy white voters, and up until recently was reliably Republican.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

None

[RINO Tom]

None

[Idaho Conservative]

why is Minnesota not on this list?  The last time it voted for a Republican was 1972.  It also has 2 progressive senators Amy Klobuchar and super feminist anti sexual assault Al Franken.  It is the solid blue state that is really trending R.  Also, NM should be on the list as well, it swung toward Trump in 2016 and Hispanics there are mostly not recent immigrants, many have roots tracing back to before NM was part of the US.  NM is also pretty libertarian, so I could see a libertarian republican that is relatively appealing to Hispanics and Indians doing well there.  I think Rand Paul or maybe Marco Rubio could make NM competitive, like Bush did.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

why is Minnesota not on this list?  The last time it voted for a Republican was 1972.  It also has 2 progressive senators Amy Klobuchar and super feminist anti sexual assault Al Franken.  It is the solid blue state that is really trending R.  Also, NM should be on the list as well, it swung toward Trump in 2016 and Hispanics there are mostly not recent immigrants, many have roots tracing back to before NM was part of the US.  NM is also pretty libertarian, so I could see a libertarian republican that is relatively appealing to Hispanics and Indians doing well there.  I think Rand Paul or maybe Marco Rubio could make NM competitive, like Bush did.

New Mexico is a safe D state, Minnesota is not. Period.

Rubio could indeed have made New Mexico competitive, but not Rand Paul.

[twenty42]

New Mexico is a safe D state, Minnesota is not. Period.

NM is as D as NC is R, yet one is considered safe while the other is considered a swing state.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

New Mexico is a safe D state, Minnesota is not. Period.

NM is as D as NC is R, yet one is considered safe while the other is considered a swing state.

Not true. New Mexico was D+ 8.3 in 2016 and North Carolina was R+ 3.7.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

New Mexico is a safe D state, Minnesota is not. Period.

NM is as D as NC is R, yet one is considered safe while the other is considered a swing state.

Not true. New Mexico was D+ 8.3 in 2016 and North Carolina was R+ 3.7.

Sure, but swing to a roughly even PV, you get D+6.2 and R+5.8 (which I assume is what he's talking about).

[cvparty]

New Mexico is a safe D state, Minnesota is not. Period.

NM is as D as NC is R, yet one is considered safe while the other is considered a swing state.

Not true. New Mexico was D+ 8.3 in 2016 and North Carolina was R+ 3.7.

Sure, but swing to a roughly even PV, you get D+6.2 and R+5.8 (which I assume is what he's talking about).

but the popular vote wasn’t even and NM wasn’t as close as NC

[UncleSam]

None of these are super likely, but I'd go with Rhode Island, since it's small, overwhelmingly white, and swung hard towards Trump in 2016. Oregon is probably the second most likely, and in fact I'd say Oregon would definitely be the first of these states to flip in a GOP landslide.

I agree with Rhode Island, but have you ever been to Portland or Eugene? You'd get thrown out of the town if you put up a Trump sign (or more accurately, have it stolen and then have the city provide therapy for people who were affected by it). In the cities, there are ten times more marijuana shops than gun stores.

Oregon's elected Democratic governors every time since 1986 and only once has the Dem received over 52% of the vote (and that was against a guy who's been arrested for tax evasion more than once). It's not a strongly Democratic state, but it's Democratic enough that it's very hard for a Republican to win.

Detroit and Ann Arbor are every bit as liberal and of comparable size / larger than Portland / Eugene. Of course, the rest of Michigan is a lot bigger than the rest of Oregon, but if Democrats start having trouble in the Southwest then Portland and Eugene won't be enough. Not that it's super likely to flip, but it's a growing state built around a college town (those don't grow very quickly if at all) and one large but not mega city that also is only just keeping up with state growth, so continued losses among the White vote would cause Oregon to flip. Remember, Bush came very close to flipping the state in 2004.

I actually think Oregon is more likely than Rhode Island, being less socially liberal and having more too ribbed Republican areas (that are growing). None is really the correct answer, though: MN, PA, MI, WI, and ME are the true answers but they aren't considered safe blue states anymore the way they were during the Bush years, simply because Republicans have been winning elections in those states for a decade or more at this point. So I guess Either OR/RI or none, depending on your criteria for inclusion. None will go red by 2024 barring a landslide, for example.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

New Mexico is a safe D state, Minnesota is not. Period.

NM is as D as NC is R, yet one is considered safe while the other is considered a swing state.

Not true. New Mexico was D+ 8.3 in 2016 and North Carolina was R+ 3.7.

Sure, but swing to a roughly even PV, you get D+6.2 and R+5.8 (which I assume is what he's talking about).

but the popular vote wasn’t even and NM wasn’t as close as NC

And universal swings don't happen in reality.

[pbrower2a]

This phenomenon has happened. West Virginia used to vote Democratic except in GOP blowouts like 1972 and 1984, and even split on Eisenhower... but since 2000, when it surprised many by going for Dubya has become one of the most R states in America. The once-strong UMW used to have great power in West Virginia politics, but it has practically disappeared. The coal barons now dominate West Virginia,and this is the desired trend for America, according to America's seemingly all-powerful economic elites.

But -- the UMW-backed politicians failed to wean West Virginians away from the dependency upon coal for well-paying jobs. West Virginia failed to invest in the good roads and quality education that the UAW thought a good idea (as did the largely-rural Republican Party that dominated Michigan outside of the I-75 corridor  in southeastern Michigan. Michigan still has a competitive Democratic Party; West Virginia doesn't. Michigan has a strong agricultural base which made the GOP possible in Michigan; West Virginia is not very urban, but it is not a farm state except by default. 

Minnesota used to have a strong liberal heritage, but it came close to voting for the fascist in 2016. I doubt that Minnesota will be so close in 2020; it is more likely to go 60-40 D then than 51-49 D in 2020, let alone vote for Trump.

Let's remember how unpopular Donald Trump is. I wouldn't make much of someone introducing right-wing demagoguery to American political life unless he is able to do some good for a majority of people.  He and the GOP are inflicting great pain and offending many sensibilities. So he can't be that bad? Sure: he's worse... far worse.

OK, enough for the partisan spiel.

California and New Mexico go Republican if the large Hispanic population goes right-wing. California went Democratic about as the Asian populations largely abandoned the Republican party, about when anti-communism became less relevant. The only anti-American Marxist state in Asia is North Korea, and because liberals and conservatives find the horrid North Korea abominable, conservatives cannot so easily exploit the sentiments of Korean-Americans.

But back to California. Putting all one's eggs in one basket makes sense while things are going well. But it is probably not a good idea to commit oneself to making money solely from the chicken coop. If a disease kills off the hens, then there goes the once-reliable money stream.

All lucrative industries eventually have their declines and even falls. As it was for coal in West Virginia, automobiles in Michigan, and personal aircraft in Kansas, could it eventually be the same for high technology in California? Specialization in a declining or even stagnant industry while rejecting alternatives is bad practice. Michigan could have been an attractive place for high technology, as one of the biggest clients of high technology is the automotive industry. 

Silicon Valley is a poor place to start any business other than a service business (retail, food-service, medicine, auto repair) because the electronics industry has pushed the wage structure so high that an industry that used to be big in the area (like food processing) got squeezed out. So what happens when electronics   (1) goes overseas, or (2) becomes less important in people's lives?

It's hard to see San Jose as another Detroit., Wait 30 years. Detroit was thee world's most prosperous big city in the 1950s, and it is now being depopulated. The educational system prepared people well to work in auto plants. That is now inadequate.  Let a business sector like electronics fade, and California could go hard R. Agrarian interests in California are very right-wing, as they are in Michigan.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Going for the eastern trifecta of Delaware, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

I'd put Illinois over Oregon as the first states that would go Republican. I just don't see it in Oregon

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Going for the eastern trifecta of Delaware, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

I'd put Illinois over Oregon as the first states that would go Republican. I just don't see it in Oregon

What?
Oregon was within 11% in 2016, and is much more elastic than Illinois. IL isn't going Republican unless Chicago starts rapidly losing population, or the GOP starts getting 60-70% in the collar counties.

[Tekken_Guy]

None of them until Trump is long gone. RI/CT I see fall first.