IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It seems to me like these primary challenges are a clash between the old school union Dems and the young Obama style Democrats.

This is not a particularly useful binary, especially in this district — SEIU & AFT went for Newman, and both are fairly reliable on labor issues.

Feels like "old school union Dems" is just a shorthand for ethnic white, male, urban Democrats most common in Chicago and Boston, and "Obama style" is non-white or female.

PPP poll showed Lipinski doing better among blacks and hispanics than with whites.

I wouldn't necessarily expect manufacturing and service sector unions to line up behind the same person, and that looks like very roughly a divide here.

[MAINEiac4434]

Has it been written about yet about how Ives running almost exclusively on abortion in the Republican primary could hurt Lipinski in his own primary (due to pro-lifers opting for a GOP ballot)?

Why would it affect him if the Republican candidate on IL-3 is a literal neo-nazi

You’re not understanding my point. The point is that Illinois is an open primary state. If pro-lifers In IL-3 pick up a Republican ballot to protest vote against Rauner, that invariably helps Marie Newman

Are people actually arguing this fact lmfao

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't know how things are in terms of Illinois media but national pro-life media and twitter is focusing more on supporting Lipinski than on Ives. SBA list is in the district encouraging pro-lifers to vote in the Democratic primary.

[Donerail]

I don't know how things are in terms of Illinois media but national pro-life media and twitter is focusing more on supporting Lipinski than on Ives. SBA list is in the district encouraging pro-lifers to vote in the Democratic primary.

the SBA list press release said they were only targeting Democrats, not Rs or Is

[VPH]

National Review endorsed a crossover pro-life vote. SBA really should be targeting indies and R's.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't know how things are in terms of Illinois media but national pro-life media and twitter is focusing more on supporting Lipinski than on Ives. SBA list is in the district encouraging pro-lifers to vote in the Democratic primary.

the SBA list press release said they were only targeting Democrats, not Rs or Is

Ah yes I see that now.  But the point still stands they are not doing a similar gotv effort for the GOP primary.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A vote for Kay Ives is a vote to throw away a competitive race.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

A vote for Kay Ives is a vote to throw away a competitive race.

Really?  Seems more like a vote to get beat by 20 instead of 10-15.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?

[MAINEiac4434]

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?

Considering Lipinski is a social conservative and fiscal liberals, why would socially liberal-fiscally conservative types vote for him?

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?

Considering Lipinski is a social conservative and fiscal liberals, why would socially liberal-fiscally conservative types vote for him?

Because they arn't as in tune with the race, and these type of voters tend to have a higher pro-incumbent affinity in primaries. Their views probably line more up with Newman socially, but Lipinski Fiscally.

[YE]

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?

Considering Lipinski is a social conservative and fiscal liberals, why would socially liberal-fiscally conservative types vote for him?

Fiscal liberals like myself don't vote against Obamacare.

[MAINEiac4434]

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?

Considering Lipinski is a social conservative and fiscal liberals, why would socially liberal-fiscally conservative types vote for him?

Fiscal liberals like myself don't vote against Obamacare.

Agreed, but I’m tossing the Lipinskans a bone.

[MAINEiac4434]

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?

Considering Lipinski is a social conservative and fiscal liberals, why would socially liberal-fiscally conservative types vote for him?

Because they arn't as in tune with the race, and these type of voters tend to have a higher pro-incumbent affinity in primaries. Their views probably line more up with Newman socially, but Lipinski Fiscally.

From the way this campaign sounds on the ground, there’s no way people who aren’t at least paying attention or have knowledge of both candidates will make up a huge contingent of voters tomorrow.

[junior chįmp]

Lipinski is done

https://www.twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/975859450568298496

https://www.twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/975943385365192704

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

300 sample size = MOE approx. 5.6%

[MAINEiac4434]

Trying not to get my hopes up, congressional races are notoriously difficult to poll. Just look at PA-18.

[VPH]

Change Research is a terrible polling firm with a track record of being way off. The only other poll we've seen of IL-03 was PPP showing Lipinski up 3 and the wording of the question wasn't even released...

[Doimper]

Tip: Bet on the candidate you don't want to win, so you'll have reason to celebrate regardless of what happens. I've got twenty bucks on Lipinski.

[Rhenna]

Tip: Bet on the candidate you don't want to win, so you'll have reason to celebrate regardless of what happens. I've got twenty bucks on Lipinski.

Might have to start doing this, I've been let down by Ossoff, Quist, and Parnell, and hopefully I can cushion the blow when Lipinski wins tonight's primary by 5%.

[Doimper]

Tip: Bet on the candidate you don't want to win, so you'll have reason to celebrate regardless of what happens. I've got twenty bucks on Lipinski.

Might have to start doing this, I've been let down by Ossoff, Quist, and Parnell, and hopefully I can cushion the blow when Lipinski wins tonight's primary by 5%.

No better time than now. He's at thirty cents on PredictIt, which is a steal.

[Illiniwek]

Tip: Bet on the candidate you don't want to win, so you'll have reason to celebrate regardless of what happens. I've got twenty bucks on Lipinski.

Might have to start doing this, I've been let down by Ossoff, Quist, and Parnell, and hopefully I can cushion the blow when Lipinski wins tonight's primary by 5%.

No better time than now. He's at thirty cents on PredictIt, which is a steal.

Yeah 30 cents is a steal, though I still do see this race as pretty much over.

[Illiniwek]

Tip: Bet on the candidate you don't want to win, so you'll have reason to celebrate regardless of what happens. I've got twenty bucks on Lipinski.

Might have to start doing this, I've been let down by Ossoff, Quist, and Parnell, and hopefully I can cushion the blow when Lipinski wins tonight's primary by 5%.

No better time than now. He's at thirty cents on PredictIt, which is a steal.

Yeah 30 cents is a steal, though I still do see this race as pretty much over.

As in Newman winning easily?

Yup. Like, I think that rational betting says take the incumbent at 30 cents, but I personally would be shocked if Newman doesn't win.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Tip: Bet on the candidate you don't want to win, so you'll have reason to celebrate regardless of what happens. I've got twenty bucks on Lipinski.

Might have to start doing this, I've been let down by Ossoff, Quist, and Parnell, and hopefully I can cushion the blow when Lipinski wins tonight's primary by 5%.

No better time than now. He's at thirty cents on PredictIt, which is a steal.

How does that work? Is it basically the same as betting on sports?

[Calthrina950]

Lipinski is done

https://www.twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/975859450568298496

https://www.twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/975943385365192704

We will see what happens. It will be a shame if one of the few pro-life Democrats remaining in Congress is drummed out.