VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)  (Read 96711 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #825 on: November 07, 2017, 07:01:43 PM »
Someone who speaks for us all...

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UncleSam
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« Reply #826 on: November 07, 2017, 07:01:57 PM »
Turnout % typically refers to the % of the registered voting population that casts a ballot. As such, population increase / decreases typically have little to do with it.

Polls closed now I think!
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super6646
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« Reply #827 on: November 07, 2017, 07:02:01 PM »
Too early to call.
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Hydera
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« Reply #828 on: November 07, 2017, 07:03:02 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2017, 07:01:32 PM
Reminder to everyone who might freak out, its totally natural for dems to be down until 80-90% of precincts reporting yet end up wining by strong margins.


Given how Rural Virginia keeps trending more GOP and Suburban/Urban Virginia keeps trending more Dem. The early results will probably give people a heartattack.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #829 on: November 07, 2017, 07:03:39 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2017, 07:01:32 PM
Reminder to everyone who might freak out, its totally natural for dems to be down until 80-90% of precincts reporting yet end up wining by strong margins.
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henster
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« Reply #830 on: November 07, 2017, 07:03:57 PM »
Why no H2H #'s in exit polls. Ugh
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BlueDogDemocrat
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« Reply #831 on: November 07, 2017, 07:04:00 PM »
Does anyone know when the first results will be in?
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #832 on: November 07, 2017, 07:04:25 PM »
Quote from: Delegate BlueDogDemocrat on November 07, 2017, 07:04:00 PM
Does anyone know when the first results will be in?

NYT says 7:10 EST for Virginia
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #833 on: November 07, 2017, 07:04:50 PM »
Harry Enten on the 538 blog:

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #834 on: November 07, 2017, 07:05:00 PM »
If you all think this thread is a sh**tstorm, look at Predictit.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #835 on: November 07, 2017, 07:05:11 PM »
Enten says Northam up by 5 according to his math in the exit polls.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #836 on: November 07, 2017, 07:05:29 PM »
So if Northam wins by 2-3 points that's not really a very good result for Democrats right?
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BlueDogDemocrat
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« Reply #837 on: November 07, 2017, 07:05:48 PM »
Thanks
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henster
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« Reply #838 on: November 07, 2017, 07:06:01 PM »
EXITS

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.20b245224bad
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #839 on: November 07, 2017, 07:06:46 PM »
Ben Tribbett is saying 3.5% so in line with polls
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Matty
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« Reply #840 on: November 07, 2017, 07:07:34 PM »
A Northam win by 5 points would be one of the least elucidating margins ever

Not large enough or small enough to make any statement

Other than it would be larger than 2013
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #841 on: November 07, 2017, 07:07:49 PM »

ouuuuch for Republicans
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Green Line
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« Reply #842 on: November 07, 2017, 07:08:57 PM »
Show me the votes!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #843 on: November 07, 2017, 07:09:21 PM »

Just skimming, it looks pretty much in line with the polling averages so far - 1 to 5 point win for Northam.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #844 on: November 07, 2017, 07:09:21 PM »
should be coming any minute now!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #845 on: November 07, 2017, 07:09:52 PM »

To much information...


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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #846 on: November 07, 2017, 07:10:38 PM »
Fox's new analysis thingy seems more conservative. Only 28% healthcare as top issue, 63% pro-statues
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #847 on: November 07, 2017, 07:10:47 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2017, 07:15:45 PM by libertpaulian »
So, Northam has slightly underperformed Clinton with non-whites, but he's improved greatly among her numbers with whites.

He also did a bit better with her with college educated voters and did more or less the same with non-educated voters compared to her.

He's done way better than Clinton with middle class voters ($50K-$100K).

He also has more unanimity with Democratic voters.  However, Gillespie has also done better with his fellow Republicans than Trump did.  Northam got more liberals than Clinton did, but simultaneously, Gillespie got more conservatives.


Northam got 62% of late deciders.  Clinton got 45% of late deciders.

Interestingly enough, 17% of those who disapprove of Governor McAuliffe voted for Northam anyway!!

Northam got 69% of NOVA, while Clinton got 62%.  Northam got 47% of Central VA, while Clinton got 42%.  Northam got 61% of Hampton Roads, while Clinton got 54%. 

Yeah, this one will be fun to watch.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #848 on: November 07, 2017, 07:10:52 PM »

Wink
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #849 on: November 07, 2017, 07:11:08 PM »
I calculated based on the exit poll, Northam leads 51.86% to Gillespie's 46.63%.
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