VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[IceSpear]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

It doesn't mean anything for either side.

T-Mac won VA in 2013, and yet looked what happened to the Democrats next year during the mid-terms.

You could just as easily say 2005 and 2009 were good barometers. Also, T Mac narrowly won when he was supposed to have it in the bag. You could easily read that as an omen for what happened to Warner as well as the Dems nationwide in 2014.

[henster]

Ugh why are we hearing nothing from SWVA counties for all we know they could be having Presidential level turnout.

[Green Line]

Ugh why are we hearing nothing from SWVA counties for all we know they could be having Presidential level turnout.

Trump isn't on the ballot.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ugh why are we hearing nothing from SWVA counties for all we know they could be having Presidential level turnout.

Like I said, things must not be great down there for Gillespie. If we were experiencing massive turnout in the 80s we would be hearing about it more than Fairfax and NOVA.

[henster]

Ok I found something.

Lee County, VA election officials say 746 of the roughly 1,100 registered voters in the Jonesville Middle School precinct have voted so far

https://twitter.com/WCYB_Lucas/status/928028227364323329

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Ok I found something.

Lee County, VA election officials say 746 of the roughly 1,100 registered voters in the Jonesville Middle School precinct have voted so far

https://twitter.com/WCYB_Lucas/status/928028227364323329

omg, 68%??

[_]

Ok I found something.

Lee County, VA election officials say 746 of the roughly 1,100 registered voters in the Jonesville Middle School precinct have voted so far

https://twitter.com/WCYB_Lucas/status/928028227364323329

omg, 68%??

In one Precinct only.  Though out of only 17 in the County

[Cactus Jack]

Only just now had a break in my shift to check this thread.

I suddenly regret my entire life, and I think I'm going to reflect that tonight by frontend-loading an entire case of Dos Equis just as soon as I get off work.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It is now pouring in Fairfax. It doesn't matter now because we already have the turnout we need there.

Btw, is anyone else following the Predictit thread? There is this Trump supporter who hilariously thinks Gillespie will win Loudon (Not impossible) but more importantly thinks Prince William County is up for grabs. If that were true, Gillespie would win by 5 points.

you mean this guy

Yep, the guy is unusually and unrealistically optimistic about Trump and the GOP.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ugh why are we hearing nothing from SWVA counties for all we know they could be having Presidential level turnout.

Their was a guy posting on Twitter that had Southern #'s and last I heard it was doing okay but not well enough to beat NOVA

[henster]

Another one from Trumpy Tazwell, Trump got 81% there, vid says they expect it to be on pace with 2013.

http://www.wvva.com/clip/13886335/2017/11/07/voter-turnout-now-on-pace-in-tazewell-county?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_phess_WVVA

[Hindsight was 2020]

Like I said okay but not good enough. Ed somehow has to do really well with NOVA to win and no one on the ground has seen any signs of this

[Brittain33]

Several news stories about Gillespie not resonating with SWVA and low attendance at his rallies, and early voting was lowest in the state there. It stands to reason. Even with his late dalliance with bigotry he's a horrible fit.

[Fudotei]

Northam by the same margin as Mac isn't a great result for Northam. What Dems should see -- and what is otherwise probably attributable to local differences or the genuine success of the anti-sanctuary plan -- is Northam up by 10.

2016 Congress was Republicans by 1 point. If Democrats hit their polling for 'generic ballot' they should be up in the range of 9.

Northam by 2 shows the atmosphere hasn't significantly changed -- in Virginia, a swing state -- from 2013 to 2017. That's not good news, not the type of sweeping news the Dems want to hear.

[Brittain33]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe? Northam winning by 9 would be unprecedented in modern Virginia.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

So......I just saw Donald Trump's approval rating in VA is 43% on the CNN exit poll? That seems higher than everyone expected.....

[Hindsight was 2020]

Northam by the same margin as Mac isn't a great result for Northam. What Dems should see -- and what is otherwise probably attributable to local differences or the genuine success of the anti-sanctuary plan -- is Northam up by 10.

2016 Congress was Republicans by 1 point. If Democrats hit their polling for 'generic ballot' they should be up in the range of 9.

Northam by 2 shows the atmosphere hasn't significantly changed -- in Virginia, a swing state -- from 2013 to 2017. That's not good news, not the type of sweeping news the Dems want to hear.

Okay I guess I'll be the one. Govenor races don't say anything about midterms

[MT Treasurer]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

I think this counts, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2013

[BudgieForce]

So......I just saw Donald Trump's approval rating in VA is 43% on the CNN exit poll? That seems higher than everyone expected.....

The Sienna poll has Trump at 43%.

[Yank2133]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

Yeah, Northam ceiling is about 6-7 points.

Besides off-year governor elections don't have much correlation with mid-term elections.

[Jeppe]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

I think this counts, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2013

Not to mention Mark Warner in 2008.

[Kamala]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe? Northam winning by 9 would be unprecedented in modern Virginia.

Didn't Warner destroy Gilmore? Unless you mean gubernatorial elections ...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With only 25 minutes left of voting, we have yet to see a significant surge in Gillespie counties. Northam +5

[henster]

Yea the 43% JA gave me pause but this was one conducted early in the day before the NoVA surge we're seeing now so it could end up being lower.

[Keep cool-idge]

So......I just saw Donald Trump's approval rating in VA is 43% on the CNN exit poll? That seems higher than everyone expected.....

I honestly think trumps approval ratings a few points better then the polls show.
That is great news for Gillespie.