VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Green Line]

Republicans are severely underestimating the anger against their party and Trump in particular.  Tonight will be a reckoning.  Many conservatives held their nose and voted GOP in 2016 to save the Supreme Court.  That is irrelevant now and they are going to feel it.

[Hydera]

So votes come in like this.
1. Rural VA
2. Richmond
3. Hampton Roads
4. Loudon/Prince William/Stafford
5. Arlington/Alexandria
5. Fairfax

>1. Rural VA


hold on to your butts.

[LimoLiberal]

How do things bode for the state legislature?

Looks like Dems will gain 2 open seats in NOVA but lose two there as well. So net zero gain. If PWC turnout wasn't so poor, it would've been much better.

Jesus f----ing Christ why would they lose seats in nOVA? Explain that one to me plz

Sorry only one D loss in NOVA.
They're going to lose John Bell's seat and Mullin's seat in SE VA.

[Crumpets]

Democrats really need to improve their efforts on the whole Chad pre-election declaration of victory instead of the virgin election prognostication. Observe:

Northam will win by 20. Anything less would be because the NRA bussed in voters from West Virginia and Tennessee. Let's hope it didn't come to that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 live blog is up: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Don't trust early exits, but if this is accurate then Gillespie is toast.

[Brittain33]

Fairfax is built out and pop. has grown like 3% since 2013, maximum. This is higher turnout.

[BudgieForce]

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Don't trust early exits, but if this is accurate than Gillespie is toast.

That doesnt mean anything to me...

[Progressive]

Anyone have links to good result pages?

[swf541]

Fairfax is built out and pop. has grown like 3% since 2013, maximum. This is higher turnout.

Thank you for the clarification

[Green Line]

When Republicans don't vote, they lose.

[swf541]

Anyone have links to good result pages?

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam

[Buzz]

When Republicans don't vote, they lose.

#analysis

[Keep cool-idge]

CNN exit poll

49% said trump was not a factor in there vote

16% said they voted to support trump

32% voted because they don’t support trump

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It is now pouring in Fairfax. It doesn't matter now because we already have the turnout we need there.

Btw, is anyone else following the Predictit thread? There is this Trump supporter who hilariously thinks Gillespie will win Loudon (Not impossible) but more importantly thinks Prince William County is up for grabs. If that were true, Gillespie would win by 5 points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is now pouring in Fairfax. It doesn't matter now because we already have the turnout we need there.

Btw, is anyone else following the Predictit thread? There is this Trump supporter who hilariously thinks Gillespie will win Loudon (Not impossible) but more importantly thinks Prince William County is up for grabs.

Interesting that Gillespie's down to .31 (down a nickel today).

[Progressive]

I'm dreading the Dem panic and Perriello v. Northam relitigation when the first precincts coming in are from GOP areas showing a Gillespie win

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm dreading the Dem panic and Perriello v. Northam relitigation when the first precincts coming in are from GOP areas showing a Gillespie win

Same. It's going to be painful reminding everyone.

[Roronoa D. Law]

It is now pouring in Fairfax. It doesn't matter now because we already have the turnout we need there.

Btw, is anyone else following the Predictit thread? There is this Trump supporter who hilariously thinks Gillespie will win Loudon (Not impossible) but more importantly thinks Prince William County is up for grabs. If that were true, Gillespie would win by 5 points.

you mean this guy

[Matty]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

[Yank2133]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

It doesn't mean anything for either side.

T-Mac won VA in 2013, and yet looked what happened to the Democrats next year during the mid-terms.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

Hillary won VA by 6%, so if Northam wins by 2-3% that's a good sign for the GOP.

[Hydera]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

It doesn't mean anything for either side.

T-Mac won VA in 2013, and yet looked what happened to the Democrats next year during the mid-terms.

2013 was a special case because of the government shutdown. Without the shutdown then Cuccinelli would had won by about 0.5-1.5%

[Virginiá]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

If Northam somehow blew Gillespie out with a 10+ point win, sure. OR, if Democrats pick up like 8 or 10 seats in the HoD elections, yes, that should make Republicans panic, considering how stable the GOP's ~66 HoD majority has been. HoD races are where those generic poll disadvantages would really manifest themselves, and if Republicans are really down by like 8 - 10 points, it would cause a huge wave of losses in legislative races across the country in 2018.

[Hindsight was 2020]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

The only think from tonight that should scare reps when it pretains to 2018 is LoBiondo retiring