VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Dear God, this thread has really gone down the tubes. almost everyone here is either trolling or acting like a schizophrenic nutcase, overreacting to every minute detail as if it signals pure DOOM for one candidate or the other.

[Virginiá]

EDWARD W. GILLESPIE  /  SlippingJimmy: Please cut your signature height in half, please. You can add width=400 (and remove height= part) to the [img] tag to do that.

[swf541]

Dear God, this thread has really gone down the tubes. almost everyone here is either trolling or acting like a schizophrenic nutcase, overreacting to every minute detail as if it signals pure DOOM for one candidate or the other.

[Matty]

Nate Cohn says the sienna poll which has N up 3 had trump at 43-55 as well

I as a republican would not be too upset with a Gillespie loss of 3

[rob in cal]

  I put one third of my huge amount of capital over at Predictit on a Dem victory at 67% odds.

[Ebsy]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

[IceSpear]

Trump's approvals seem higher than you'd expect

A lot of polls  had him in the 30s here

Which is why I've said multiple times you should actually include "undecided" in the approval rating.

[Kamala]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

Ralph Northam, endorsed by:

God (D-Heaven)

[LimoLiberal]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

Wrong. Still pouring like a mofo. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Matty]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

Ralph Northam, endorsed by:

God (D-Heaven)

God (socialist-Heaven)

[The Other Castro]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

It appears turnout in NOVA is pretty high, but we really can't draw any conclusions from that because we don't know how well Northam is doing in Northern Virginia until we start getting actual votes. Maybe Gillespie will over-perform Trump bigly, or maybe Northam will do as well as Clinton did or even slightly better... we just don't know yet.

[Kamala]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

Ralph Northam, endorsed by:

God (D-Heaven)

God (socialist-Heaven)

Only Jesus is a socialist. God's a Democrat. The Virgin Mary is a proud supporter of the Green Party.

[swf541]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

Hate reading exit polling but that seems important

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout in Fairfax is officially higher than it was in 2013.

[boske94]

It's stupid to report exit polls at 5pm

[swf541]

It's stupid to report exit polls at 5pm

[swf541]

Turnout in Fairfax is officially higher than it was in 2013.

Fairfax county or Fairfax city?

[Virginiá]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

To be expected, and probably good for Democrats. 538 / Wasserman had a nice piece showing how college educated whites could hurt Republicans pretty bad as they tend to be over-represented in midterms/other off-year elections as opposed to presidential elections, where more working class whites show up.

[TheSaint250]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

This could be some 2016 Republican non-voters, but we'll see how this shakes out.

[heatcharger]

Turnout in Fairfax County in 2013 was 46.8%. The current turnout in Fairfax County, including absentees, is 46.8%.

[henster]

5 p.m. estimated voter turnout is 39.1% + estimated absentee at 7.7% = 46.8%. About 90 minutes to get to poll by 7 p.m. Drive safely please!

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/928025871079833600

[2016]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

Comparing 2017 with 2016 is comparing apples with oranges. If You compare you need 2017 vs 2013 Numbers.

[Yank2133]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

This could be some 2016 Republican non-voters, but we'll see how this shakes out.

Yeah, I was just about to say. Trump was a terrible fit for the state last year, so some college educated R's may have voted for Clinton or simply not vote at all.

[Matty]

Gillespie will not do as bad with upper income educated repubs as trump did