VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

[henster]

"At this pace Ralph will be relying on the 35000 absentee edge alone by 5 pm.  It’s trending tighter as day goes on."

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927999269851815939

D insider not impressed with turnout so far.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"At this pace Ralph will be relying on the 35000 absentee edge alone by 5 pm.  It’s trending tighter as day goes on."

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927999269851815939

D insider not impressed with turnout so far.

Is this "D insider" even looking at the actual statistics?

[heatcharger]

Idk who “NotLarrySabato” is, but if he were really a seasoned vet he’d know that there’s a huge surge after 5 pm from people coming back from work. Most people don’t work in the same precinct they live in.

Also PittsburghSteel, stop the hackery for like 4-5 hours, please.

[swf541]

"At this pace Ralph will be relying on the 35000 absentee edge alone by 5 pm.  It’s trending tighter as day goes on."

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927999269851815939

D insider not impressed with turnout so far.

Why are we relying on people from twitter when we actually have numbers here we can crunch?

It looks like a normal va election turnout wise

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

You seriously think Gillespie has a chance in Virginia? What happened to your "It's gone" posts?

But yeah, I'm not reading too much into turnout reports either, honestly.

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

[henster]

Have a bad feeling think Gillespie narrowly wins.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

You seriously think Gillespie has a chance in Virginia? What happened to your "It's gone" posts?

But yeah, I'm not reading too much into turnout reports either, honestly.

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

[LimoLiberal]

Have a bad feeling think Gillespie narrowly wins.

Me too. The rain has f***ed everything up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

You seriously think Gillespie has a chance in Virginia? What happened to your "It's gone" posts?

But yeah, I'm not reading too much into turnout reports either, honestly.

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Cuomo is perfect for the NOVA crowd.

[DFL]

Have a bad feeling think Gillespie narrowly wins.

Me too. The rain has f***ed everything up.

Wasn't it looking like the rain was depressing turnout in the heavily R parts of the state though?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The rain is almost entirely in NoVA, rest of the state mainly seeing drizzle or likewise

[Adam Griffin]

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Nah, Cuomo will clear 60% in VA and will probably be only 1 of his 2 state wins

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Have a bad feeling think Gillespie narrowly wins.

Me too. The rain has f***ed everything up.

Wasn't it looking like the rain was depressing turnout in the heavily R parts of the state though?

Yeah that's what I thought. I heard it wasn't depressing turnout in NOVA though.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh my god it's the election all over again?!

[swf541]

Have to say the hot takes and panic in this thread is utterly ridiculous

Oh my god it's the election all over again?!

No people are being gullible to idiots on twitter

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/927992774615617536

Fairfax county at 36.6% at 2pm.

[BudgieForce]

People dont melt guys. And I might be from NJ, but we have similar weather today and its not that bad.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/927992774615617536

Fairfax county at 36.6% at 2pm.

I believe we already had that number

[Adam Griffin]

Rain doesn't depress GOP vote share, and it's definitely debatable that it really depresses either side's turnout in the modern day whatsoever; older data suggests a 1-3% net drop in Dem vote. Nevertheless, if rain in heavily-GOP areas is in fact depressing turnout, then why wouldn't it depress the Dem vote in those areas by more than the GOP vote?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The rain is almost entirely in NoVA, rest of the state mainly seeing drizzle or likewise

Wrong thread, but that rain could impact the PA Supreme Court Races. Not that they will change the balance of power though.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Have to say the hot takes and panic in this thread is utterly ridiculous

Oh my god it's the election all over again?!

No people are being gullible to idiots on twitter

I know I'm messing

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/927992774615617536

Fairfax county at 36.6% at 2pm.

I believe we already had that number

didn't see, sorry.

[UncleSam]

The rain has not 'f$&ked everything up', we don't know how things will turn out yet. We don't know who is showing up where, we have almost nothing from Trumpland either way, and unless I'm mistaken we don't have anything from Hampton Roads either. Neither side should panic, there are mixed signals all over the place.

There will probably be a rush at the end of the day - it's coming up on 4 PM, I mean, who even votes at 4 PM? I'll bet that either side still has a chance but that Northam has the definite edge, same as he has had for months.