What Gillespie winning would mean for dems...

[Bidenworth2020]

as sad as it makes me, this race is as 50-50 as it could be

if Gillespie wins, how big a blow will this be to the 2018 chances?

[Virginiá]

I think it would be more of a temporary blow to morale, and probably result in more infighting. Losing a single Governors race in a state like Virginia isn't all that predictive of 2018, just like winning it isn't. It's not like parties on the winning side of a wave haven't lost races before or during that wave that seemed like sure pick ups.

[Skill and Chance]

It would probably help them, because it would be the final nail in the coffin of using identity politics and anti-rural appeals to try to flip suburban libertarians.  Even if Northam still wins, between Ossoff and VA being closer than 2016, NeverTrump just won't vote against Generic R, so they need to find a new strategy.  

It would likely lead to a Bernie style all economic inequality all the time campaign and some Dem candidates making outright apologies to rural voters.  For a long time I thought the flip the suburbs against Trump strategy was the way to go, but between this and GA-06 and 2016, I can't argue against the data.  Also, if it was working, they should have won VA and CO by 10-15 last year and turned them the way of the Bill Clinton-McCain states, not Clinton by 5 and a tied governor's race.  The fact that Northam isn't up by Republicans' 2010 margins in the Clinton-McCain states should be alarming, even if he wins.

[The Other Castro]

Long answer: Governor races aren't representative of national trends, individual context and circumstances, bad candidates, etc blah blah blah

Short answer: It would suckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

[_]

Long Term:  Probably a positive effect as it'd force them to create a new strategy.

Short Term:  PERRIELLO WOULD'VE WON CORRUPT DNC ARE MORONS INDEPENDENT BERNIE RUN 2020

[Chief Justice Keef]

It would probably help them, because it would be the final nail in the coffin of using identity politics and anti-rural appeals to try to flip suburban libertarians.  Even if Northam still wins, between Ossoff and VA being closer than 2016, NeverTrump just won't vote against Generic R, so they need to find a new strategy.  

I agree with this, and I have to point to Northam's anti-sanctuary cities stance he took very recently. He's gotten a lot of backlash from groups like Democracy for America, and for good reason. It's basically abandoning Democratic voters and conceding to Republican talking points. The truth is Gillespie has been running the better campaign because he's playing to exactly what GOP voters want, even the "NeverTrump" people; confederate statues and sanctuary cities. If you vote based on those issues, you're voting Republican. Northam hasn't been playing to the base, and we can talk about the dynamics of Virginia politics, but a more progressive challenger like Perriello probably would've gotten the most support from grassroots organizations like DfA, Our Revolution and Daily Kos.

So if Northam loses, I think it's gonna be a tough defeat for the moderate Democrats who wholeheartedly beloved in Northam's candidacy, and a boost of morale for the progressives who are challenging the Democratic strategy. I also think more Democratic candidates are going to start capitulating to the left rather than the right, because even though that might be at the behest of their big donors and long-time party insiders it's probably the best strategy for their long-term survival.

[henster]

It would probably help them, because it would be the final nail in the coffin of using identity politics and anti-rural appeals to try to flip suburban libertarians.  Even if Northam still wins, between Ossoff and VA being closer than 2016, NeverTrump just won't vote against Generic R, so they need to find a new strategy.  

I agree with this, and I have to point to Northam's anti-sanctuary cities stance he took very recently. He's gotten a lot of backlash from groups like Democracy for America, and for good reason. It's basically abandoning Democratic voters and conceding to Republican talking points. The truth is Gillespie has been running the better campaign because he's playing to exactly what GOP voters want, even the "NeverTrump" people; confederate statues and sanctuary cities. If you vote based on those issues, you're voting Republican. Northam hasn't been playing to the base, and we can talk about the dynamics of Virginia politics, but a more progressive challenger like Perriello probably would've gotten the most support from grassroots organizations like DfA, Our Revolution and Daily Kos.

So if Northam loses, I think it's gonna be a tough defeat for the moderate Democrats who wholeheartedly beloved in Northam's candidacy, and a boost of morale for the progressives who are challenging the Democratic strategy. I also think more Democratic candidates are going to start capitulating to the left rather than the right, because even though that might be at the behest of their big donors and long-time party insiders it's probably the best strategy for their long-term survival.

The only candidate using identity politics in this election is Ed Gillespie.

[Dr. Arch]

Gillespie wins

- Perriello/Bernie would have won, corrupt DNC establishment, stupid rednecks, Northam rigged the primary, etc.
- Permanent Republican majority?
- I told you VA was still a swing state!!!1! This means that VA-SEN 2018/2020 and VA-PRES 2020 are winnable for Rs as well! 
- RINO Tom: "This totally proves that 2016 was just a one-off! Ds can only win elections if they try to win back White voters in rural areas, because appealing to suburbanites is CLEARLY a losing strategy! VA is still hella purple, maybe even slightly Republican-leaning!"
- The election was rigged.
- Rs won VA in 2009 and won bigly in 2010, you know what this means, right? Right?
- Ds won VA in 2013 but lost bigly in 2014, you know what this means, right? Right?

Northam wins

- Republicans are dead, they can't even win a swing state race with a strong candidate like Gillespie!
- Gillespie only lost because of TRUMP. If CLINTON had been president instead of TRUMP, Gillespie would have won by AT LEAST 5! And of course Republicans would have easily won that Senate special election as well!
- Is John Barrasso now vulnerable? Is Alabama now a Tossup?
- Northam only won by [insert Northam margin of victory here], terrible result for Ds!
- Perriello would have won by more.
- Fairfax County = C(r)ook County, WA-GOV 2004 redux, etc.
- "B-b-b-but I thought Republicans always outperform the polling average in VA!!11"

Obviously exaggerating, but I really wouldn't be surprised if someone started a "Is the [insert party that lost VA-GOV here] now dead?" thread as soon as the race is called.

You pretty much captured all of it.

[DrScholl]

It would mean that Gillespie would be lucid dreaming.

[tallguy23]

That their candidate messed up big time.

I doubt this will have any impact on the midterms. The 49 other states don't care who the Governor of Virginia is when they vote for Congress.

[krazen1211]

The 4th circuit court stole the 4th district from Randy Forbes. So I could see the Virginia legislature retrieving that district.

[Skill and Chance]

The 4th circuit court stole the 4th district from Randy Forbes. So I could see the Virginia legislature retrieving that district.

Haha good luck with that.  They will be redrawing a lot more than that after Kennedy rules for the Gill v. Whitford plaintiffs this spring! 

[Frodo]

It would probably help them, because it would be the final nail in the coffin of using identity politics and anti-rural appeals to try to flip suburban libertarians.  Even if Northam still wins, between Ossoff and VA being closer than 2016, NeverTrump just won't vote against Generic R, so they need to find a new strategy.  

It would likely lead to a Bernie style all economic inequality all the time campaign and some Dem candidates making outright apologies to rural voters.  For a long time I thought the flip the suburbs against Trump strategy was the way to go, but between this and GA-06 and 2016, I can't argue against the data.  Also, if it was working, they should have won VA and CO by 10-15 last year and turned them the way of the Bill Clinton-McCain states, not Clinton by 5 and a tied governor's race.  The fact that Northam isn't up by Republicans' 2010 margins in the Clinton-McCain states should be alarming, even if he wins.

I agree with this assessment.

And at a more local level, with a Governor Ed Gillespie, Republicans would be in a prime position to consolidate their hold on the General Assembly (assuming they hold the Senate in 2019), and possibly push through some constitutional changes (following North Carolina's example) that would remove the redistricting veto from the Governor in exchange for enabling him or his successor to run for a second term.

[krazen1211]

The 4th circuit court stole the 4th district from Randy Forbes. So I could see the Virginia legislature retrieving that district.

Haha good luck with that.  They will be redrawing a lot more than that after Kennedy rules for the Gill v. Whitford plaintiffs this spring! 

The Virginia House of Delegates was already prepared to redistrict in 2015. The problem occurred when Ralph Northan and the Virginia State Senate voted 21-20 to adjourn without considering a Congressional redistricting plan. Unless Vogel loses that obstacle is no longer in place.

[JJC]

It would probably help them, because it would be the final nail in the coffin of using identity politics and anti-rural appeals to try to flip suburban libertarians.

[Sestak]

Just going to put this here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-virginia-governors-race-is-not-a-good-political-barometer/

Moralewise, though, it'd be pretty bad. A lot of the Periellans would be up in arms (never mind that Perrielo was never that anti-establishment). But I think this gets the Democrats to step back and think about their strategy. They could either choose to try and appeal directly to WWC (good) or push farther left (not so good).

[Mr. Smith]

What exactly did T-Mac's win mean for the GOP in 2014 again?  Exactly.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What exactly did T-Mac's win mean for the GOP in 2014 again?  Exactly.

I didnt know Tracy McGrady was a politician. But in all seriousness who is T-Mac

[Skill and Chance]

Just going to put this here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-virginia-governors-race-is-not-a-good-political-barometer/

Moralewise, though, it'd be pretty bad. A lot of the Periellans would be up in arms (never mind that Perrielo was never that anti-establishment). But I think this gets the Democrats to step back and think about their strategy. They could either choose to try and appeal directly to WWC (good) or push farther left (not so good).

These are probably a package deal, as long as we're talking about economic issues/Bernie-ism and not about campus protest leftism.

It is true that VA-GOV historically isn't correlated with much of anything except the presidential election that came before.

[AtorBoltox]

It would mean as much as losing Louisiana in 2015 meant for republicans

[Mr. Smith]

What exactly did T-Mac's win mean for the GOP in 2014 again?  Exactly.

I didnt know Tracy McGrady was a politician. But in all seriousness who is T-Mac

Governor McAuliffe.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What exactly did T-Mac's win mean for the GOP in 2014 again?  Exactly.

I didnt know Tracy McGrady was a politician. But in all seriousness who is T-Mac

Governor McAuliffe.

It didnt mean anything then since the GOP lost

[BigSkyBob]

Gillespie wins

- Perriello/Bernie would have won, corrupt DNC establishment, stupid rednecks, Northam rigged the primary, etc.
- Permanent Republican majority?
- I told you VA was still a swing state!!!1! This means that VA-SEN 2018/2020 and VA-PRES 2020 are winnable for Rs as well! 
- RINO Tom: "This totally proves that 2016 was just a one-off! Ds can only win elections if they try to win back White voters in rural areas, because appealing to suburbanites is CLEARLY a losing strategy! VA is still hella purple, maybe even slightly Republican-leaning!"
- The election was rigged.
- Rs won VA in 2009 and won bigly in 2010, you know what this means, right? Right?
- Ds won VA in 2013 but lost bigly in 2014, you know what this means, right? Right?

Northam wins

- Republicans are dead, they can't even win a swing state race with a strong candidate like Gillespie!
- Gillespie only lost because of TRUMP. If CLINTON had been president instead of TRUMP, Gillespie would have won by AT LEAST 5! And of course Republicans would have easily won that Senate special election as well!
- Is John Barrasso now vulnerable? Is Alabama now a Tossup?
- Northam only won by [insert Northam margin of victory here], terrible result for Ds!
- Perriello would have won by more.
- Fairfax County = C(r)ook County, WA-GOV 2004 redux, etc.
- "B-b-b-but I thought Republicans always outperform the polling average in VA!!11"

Obviously exaggerating, but I really wouldn't be surprised if someone started a "Is the [insert party that lost VA-GOV here] now dead?" thread as soon as the race is called.

I'll try,

Gillespie wins

"Northam considered switching to the Republican party. That isn't an accident. He is Republican light. Given a choice between a fake thing, and a real thing, people will opt for the real thing every time. The ad was accurate. When Northam flinched, he demoralized women and minorities costing not only  himself his election, but, other Democrats down-ballot as well. [expletive deletive!] May he be banished to obscurity. We need the Bernie Sanders of Virginia...."

Northam wins

"Gillespie is a moderate. Moderates are those who only wish to slow down liberalism. Given a choice between someone who is for liberalism now, and, someone who is for liberalism eventually, people will opt for the person who has the courage of his convictions every time. The Democrats ran a campaign of vilification of Republican voters, and, Gillespie's response was to merely quibble at the margin. The people who Gillespie let the Democrats piss on didn't bother to vote for the 'Republican' who wouldn't fight for their dignity. Funny how that works. Trump got it, and, won. Gillespie hemmed and hawed, and lost. How many elections do we have to lose before our so-called 'leaders' get it, like Donald Trump got it?"

[BigSkyBob]

What exactly did T-Mac's win mean for the GOP in 2014 again?  Exactly.

Funny you should ask. His narrow victory meant a lot, and, meant nothing at all.

First, it meant a lot. Cuccinelli faced his version of Never Trump. The establishment was out to sandbag him in the hopes that the magnitude of his lose would make the conservative wing of the GOP, the E.W. Jacksons, go away, preferably forever.

When race turned out to be close, the blame shifted to the establishment for sandbagging the nominee in what was winnable race.

Of course, it also meant nothing, since, the establishment tried the same thing with Donald Trump.

[GlobeSoc]

It would mean that the structural advantage for democrats that I'm thinking exists, doesn't.

It will create some severe democratic infighting, as both wings of the democratic party will blame each other for the loss. It means that Virginia will have a stint of North Carolina 2.0, hopefully stopped by taking the VA senate in 2019. Donations and volunteering to democratic candidates will slow as people begin to fear that they just can't win, period. Very bad stuff.

In the long term, hopefully it will nudge democrats to a more staunchly economically left wing strategy, and it may accelerate that shift if VA really does flip. But this is simply not worth the costs of such a defeat.