Gwinnett County, Georgia

[Arbitrage1980]

What happened here? Hillary won it by nearly 6 points, the first Democrat to win it since Carter 1976. In 04 Bush won it by a whopping 33 points. Is it due to demographics, with the massive influx of Asians and Latinos? Or other factors at play?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Mostly demographic changes combined with a bit of a swing of well-off college educated whites away from Trump.  A lot of suburbs' changing political character actually has to do with the urban core extending further and further from downtown into formerly suburban areas.  At that point, exurban counties (look at Cherokee in GA for example) become more suburban- but still highly Republican-, while counties even further out develop an exurban feel.

[Bismarck]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

[RINO Tom]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

While it's undeniable that there has been a very significant shift of some college educated Whites away from the GOP and toward the Democrats (predating 2016), I think demographic change is too overlooked - not even just demographic change as in a change in the racial makeup of the county but rather a fundamental change in the "feel" of the county.  I imagine many of these inner suburbs that were once rock-ribbed Republican had more of a "today's exurbs" feel in the '60s and '70s and '80s, while today they pretty much feel like the outskirts of the city.

[Hydera]

Thats a pretty large swing amongst whites in Gwinnett county.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

This! I think this county will be non-Atlas blue in 2020. The governor’s race will give us a preview though. I was weary of Henry and Newton counties being Democrat long-term since Obama was on the ballot bolstered black turnout  but both Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter won it, so I was less surprised when Hillary won there. Democrats here are still trying to figure out a new path to victory and Gwinnett and Cobb counties are at the top of that list.

[Del Tachi]

Gwinnett, Newton, Rockdale and Henry counties are all experiencing population growth among minorities, particularly Hispanics, Asians and some African-American growth.  College whites certainly did swing towards Clinton (and this trend was probably bigger in Gwinnett than in other suburban counties), but increasing diversity is probably more of a cause.

Contrast that with Cobb County which has been becoming more diverse (but nowhere near as quickly as Gwinnett).  I think the flip in Cobb County was probably more due to college educated Whites than in Gwinnett. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

While it's undeniable that there has been a very significant shift of some college educated Whites away from the GOP and toward the Democrats (predating 2016), I think demographic change is too overlooked -

I agree, but remember, you're a presumably college educated, presumably white, presumably suburban individual who voted for Hillary Clinton. You act like people like you don't exist, which is rather odd.

[RINO Tom]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

While it's undeniable that there has been a very significant shift of some college educated Whites away from the GOP and toward the Democrats (predating 2016), I think demographic change is too overlooked -

I agree, but remember, you're a presumably college educated, presumably white, presumably suburban individual who voted for Hillary Clinton. You act like people like you don't exist, which is rather odd.

Amost!  Not suburban by any stretch.  Anyway, I'm not saying "people like [me]" don't exist; all I have ever said, as one of them, is that they will not become downballot Democratic voters anytime soon.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, it usually takes a while until the trends at the presidential level trickle down the ballot, but it does happen - and this is obviously going to be the case in places like suburban Atlanta as well. Just ask AR and WV Democrats if you want.  

I mean, I see no reason why Romney-Clinton voters or those areas in general would be more inclined to vote for Trump in 2020 than they were in 2016. Heck, even Isakson undeperformed in Gwinnett.

[uti2]

^Yeah, it usually takes a while until the trends at the presidential level trickle down the ballot, but it does happen - and this is obviously going to be the case in places like suburban Atlanta as well. Just ask AR and WV Democrats if you want.  

I mean, I see no reason why Romney-Clinton voters or those areas in general would be more inclined to vote for Trump in 2020 than they were in 2016.

FWIW, GA-06 is a demographically similar area, and Ossoff was able to close the gap, obviously it wasn't enough and Dems shouldn't necessarily rely on this group, that being said, it did trend more D.

[RINO Tom]

^ Sorry, I wasn't talking specifically about Millennials when I said "people like me," just college Whites in general.  I don't think that a 50-year old college educated Romney-Clinton voter is going to vote Democrat for Senate next time around, for example.  Obviously, the GOP has some pretty big problems with Millennial voters anyway, and Trump isn't helping.

But please, carry on, LOL.

[Bismarck]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't you worry! You'll eventually come to the realization that you don't fit in as a Republican once Susan Collins goes down in flames in spectacular fashion in 2020  and Charlie Dent, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Ros-Lehtinen, and Reichert all leave Congress in 2018. At some point it'll dawn on you that the Phil Scotts and Charlie Bakers are the black sheep in the party and their kind will be totally extinct eventually since no one else in the party wants you around

There would almost have to be a democratic shift to the right of all the GOP moderates leave the party. So fine by me if that actually happens.

[RINO Tom]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't you worry! You'll eventually come to the realization that you don't fit in as a Republican once Susan Collins goes down in flames in spectacular fashion in 2020  and Charlie Dent, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Ros-Lehtinen, and Reichert all leave Congress in 2018. At some point it'll dawn on you that the Phil Scotts and Charlie Bakers are the black sheep in the party and their kind will be totally extinct eventually since no one else in the party wants you around

There would almost have to be a democratic shift to the right of all the GOP moderates leave the party. So fine by me if that actually happens.

If the only reason you're a Republican is cuz of tax cuts or whatever and if you regularly have to trash the President of your party, you probably shouldn't be in said party

Why are you so concerned about what party I registered with?  LOL

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't you worry! You'll eventually come to the realization that you don't fit in as a Republican once Susan Collins goes down in flames in spectacular fashion in 2020  and Charlie Dent, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Ros-Lehtinen, and Reichert all leave Congress in 2018. At some point it'll dawn on you that the Phil Scotts and Charlie Bakers are the black sheep in the party and their kind will be totally extinct eventually since no one else in the party wants you around

There would almost have to be a democratic shift to the right of all the GOP moderates leave the party. So fine by me if that actually happens.

If the only reason you're a Republican is cuz of tax cuts or whatever and if you regularly have to trash the President of your party, you probably shouldn't be in said party

Why are you so concerned about what party I registered with?  LOL

It's okay. Not everyone hates that. We just want you, our Target demographic, to switch sides.
Frankly, I wish there were more than two serious parties, and I imagine if there was a Jeb!/Clinton/Bloomberg/McCain/Ros-Lehinten European liberal style party, we'd both be in it. We have remarkably similar political compass scores.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Do y'all think that we can win Cobb with a majority on the presidential level in 2020? I think there is a 60% of yes, and a 75% chance that we win the county by any means including plurality.

[Hydera]

Do y'all think that we can win Cobb with a majority on the presidential level in 2020? I think there is a 60% of yes, and a 75% chance that we win the county by any means including plurality.

If its Biden then the dems will win it if its Bernie then probably trump wins it back by 3-7%.

[Adam Griffin]

[RINO Tom]

I'm not. Just trying to wage my campaign to eradicate the bizarre belief that Republicans are gonna head in this mystical unicorn socially utopian-tax cutting Susan Collins-like direction, which seems prevalent among Atlas Republicans in general.

You just think people think that.

[Dr. Arch]

Love your maps. This really sheds light on how quickly demographic changes, and thus changes in political leanings, take place.

[RINO Tom]

Love your maps. This really sheds light on how quickly demographic changes, and thus changes in political leanings, take place.

It's way too simplistic, but if we assumed that Whites and Non-Whites voted about like they did in 2016 in Georgia during all of these years, these would be the results.

(Obviously, there weren't elections on five-year intervals, but you get the point.)

2000: 58.80% GOP, 38.50% DEM
2005: 52.40% GOP, 45.41% DEM
2010: 50.81% DEM, 47.40% GOP
2015: 52.97% DEM, 45.40% GOP
2017: 53.89% DEM, 44.55% GOP

Obviously, actual election analysis takes other things into account, but this shows how demographic change alone could theoretically account for an almost 30% swing without a single voter changing his or her mind.  Again, this is unrealistic and just a hypothetical exercise, but that is pretty crazy and needs to be considered more often, IMO.

[Arbitrage1980]

Love your maps. This really sheds light on how quickly demographic changes, and thus changes in political leanings, take place.

It's way too simplistic, but if we assumed that Whites and Non-Whites voted about like they did in 2016 in Georgia during all of these years, these would be the results.

(Obviously, there weren't elections on five-year intervals, but you get the point.)

2000: 58.80% GOP, 38.50% DEM
2005: 52.40% GOP, 45.41% DEM
2010: 50.81% DEM, 47.40% GOP
2015: 52.97% DEM, 45.40% GOP
2017: 53.89% DEM, 44.55% GOP

Obviously, actual election analysis takes other things into account, but this shows how demographic change alone could theoretically account for an almost 30% swing without a single voter changing his or her mind.  Again, this is unrealistic and just a hypothetical exercise, but that is pretty crazy and needs to be considered more often, IMO.

Demographics is destiny. It's the major reason why Democrats want to give citizenship to illegal aliens: doing so will add millions of voters to the party.

[Tintrlvr]

Absolutely a major factor, although the trend map by precinct also shows that heavily white areas closer to Dekalb County like Mountain Park (but not heavily white areas on the exurban fringe) were the areas that swung most strongly to Clinton. So it's a mix of demographic shifts and improvement for the Democrats among college-educated whites, and both factored into the large margin (although one or the other on its own might have been enough for the county to at least just barely flip).

[HAnnA MArin County]

Demographics is destiny. It's the major reason why Democrats want to give citizenship to illegal aliens: doing so will add millions of voters to the party.

Don't worry, Republicans are doing the best they can to keep non-whites from voting.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Demographics is destiny. It's the major reason why Democrats want to give citizenship to illegal aliens: doing so will add millions of voters to the party.

This is true. Most republicans try to simply ignore this issue for fear of being called racist, but if the GOP got the same percentage of the vote by race that Reagan did in his landslide victories, they'd barely scrape a win anymore. Despite GOP pundits calling every single group except for the one that actual gives them 80-90% of their votes "natural conservatives," the white vote has trended republican and that's what keeps things competitive nationally. The question is whether that can continue to be the case if demographics flip Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.