|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 25, 2020, 02:02:31 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-WaPo/Scher: Northam +5
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: VA-WaPo/Scher: Northam +5  (Read 1547 times)
RogueBeaver
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,864
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 31, 2017, 02:17:46 pm »

49/44. Fairfax +6, Herring +8.
Logged
#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,923


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2017, 02:18:21 pm »

Sounds right.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,478
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2017, 02:21:20 pm »

Yep. Now that WaPo has accepted that the race is within single digits (their previous poll was Northam +13), it is made painstakingly clear that Quinnipiac is a laughingstock of a pollster.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,974
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2017, 02:22:36 pm »

Lol, this poll screams herding, but also more realistic.

I wonder if Quinnipiac will roll with 17, haha
Logged
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,622


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2017, 02:22:46 pm »

The way they report it as "statistically insignificant" is stupid.
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,774
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2017, 02:23:11 pm »

Yep. Now that WaPo has accepted that the race is within single digits (their previous poll was Northam +13), it is made painstakingly clear that Quinnipiac is a laughingstock of a pollster.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,974
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2017, 02:28:31 pm »

Trump's approval rating is at 38%, plus the indictments this week. Not a great headwind for Gillespie here at the end.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,974
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2017, 02:40:46 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2017, 02:53:15 pm by Gass3268 »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillespie can't win with those numbers in DC suburbs.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,974
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2017, 02:44:28 pm »

Poll also shows that Northam voters are more enthused than Gillespie voters.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,032
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2017, 02:45:38 pm »

Every undecided will vote Republican. Lean Gillespie.
Logged
AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,529
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2017, 02:50:00 pm »

Well there's one outlier quickly closing up (was Northam + 13 last poll)
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,601


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2017, 02:50:27 pm »

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,372
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2017, 02:51:49 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.



he can't win 27% ?  seriously?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,974
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2017, 02:52:40 pm »

Every undecided will vote Republican. Lean Gillespie.

Would still only go 49-47 as the libertarian is getting 4% (adds up to 101, probably due to rounding).
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,974
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2017, 02:53:36 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.



he can't win 27% ?  seriously?

*can't win with those
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,032
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2017, 02:55:12 pm »

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.

Just like he crushed expectations in the primary?
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,601


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2017, 02:56:40 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.



he can't win 27% ?  seriously?

*can't win with those

The regional numbers are a bit strange. Literally the only region Gillespie is winning is SW Va., but he's still within 5? SW Va. is a huge area (I just drove through it), but it's not that dominant in state politics. No region of Virginia has the ability to deliver the state all by itself.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would say that was more Corey Stewart crushing expectations. If Stewart had won the nomination, he would probably be doing just as well. Any losses in NoVa. among the establishment GOP crowd would be made up with working class whites and a bigger margin in SW.
Logged
Cactus Jack
azcactus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,967
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2017, 02:58:48 pm »

If Stewart had won the nomination, he would probably be doing just as well.

LMAO

Welcome to ignore.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2017, 03:24:32 pm »

Praying that Quinnipiac is right just to piss off Wulfric.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2017, 03:27:10 pm »

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.

Gillespie almost beating Warner had nothing to do with him as a candidate it was a wave year and turnout collapsed.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,478
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2017, 03:34:43 pm »

Praying that Quinnipiac is right just to piss off Wulfric.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to throw a temper tantrum over a governor's race well away from my home state. If Quinnipiac is right, I'll be happy to call them the Virginia Gold Standard. But for now, because they are such an outlier, they are junk until proven otherwise.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2017, 05:07:47 pm »

More believable than the last one. What I don't get is how Northam only has a 5 point lead in a sample where D's outnumber R's by 8 points and where Northam has 96% of Democrats, is winning independents, and is taking more R's from Gillespie than Gillespie is taking D's. Wouldn't that suggest he should be leading by more than 5 points in this sample?

Go to question 6 and filter by party and then to question 19 where the party ID is 32D-24R-32I

Among D's (32%): Northam 96, Gillespie 3
Among R's (24%): Northam 6, Gillespie 91
Among I's (32%): Northam 48, Gillespie 45

These numbers don't add up

Their LV screen must be very R friendly. Either that or they're applying some special sauce to herd to the consensus. The regional splits also make no sense unless you're assuming massive turnout in R areas and low turnout in D areas.
Logged
Ridin' with Biden
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2017, 08:26:27 pm »

Trump's approval rating is at 38%, plus the indictments this week. Not a great headwind for Gillespie here at the end.

Sad! Will Enron Ed have to resort to flying in Lyin' Ted for last minute support?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2017, 09:28:28 pm »

Either way, one or more pollster groups is extremely wrong here.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.127 seconds with 14 queries.