2016: Ben Carson/Tim Scott vs Hillary Clinton/Cory Booker

[NewYorkExpress]

Donald Trump does not run for the Republican nomination, and Ben Carson is able to harness the anti-establishment energy to win the nomination. He selects Tim Scott as his running mate.

Hillary Clinton survives a contentious primary, and fearful of losing Black voters to the Scott/Carson ticket, selects Cory Booker as her running mate.

Who wins, why, and does any Independent or minor party have a significant result (Sanders, Johnson, Stein)?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Carson was one of the weakest potential GOP candidates, honestly maybe the weakest. He doesn't have the appeal to WWC voters that Trump did and, although he's a minority, he probably only performs a couple points better than Trump among blacks if even better at all. I think Carson would actually hold up decently in the South, so he manages to keep NC, but he collapses in the Midwest, barring his home state of Michigan, where he keeps it pretty competitive.

Fmr. Sos/Sen./FLOTUS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Dr. Ben Carson (R-MI) / Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Carson is an insanely weak candidate to be nominated, as such, he loses key states. McMullin wins Utah very narrowly (within 5%), and Hillary flips Arizona, Montana, and Indiana. Booker helps keep key states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Maine in the Clinton column, but they aren't much of a concern anyways, as Carson wouldn't really do much against her in those states. The saving grace of the GOP tickit is Tim Scott, who allows the party to hold on to North Carolina and Georgia, both narrowly.

[Lechasseur]

Carson is an insanely weak candidate to be nominated, as such, he loses key states. McMullin wins Utah very narrowly (within 5%), and Hillary flips Arizona, Montana, and Indiana. Booker helps keep key states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Maine in the Clinton column, but they aren't much of a concern anyways, as Carson wouldn't really do much against her in those states. The saving grace of the GOP tickit is Tim Scott, who allows the party to hold on to North Carolina and Georgia, both narrowly.

Probably something like this