Less than 2 weeks out, your VA Gov race prediction.

[PragmaticPopulist]

My prediction is somewhere between Northam +3 and Northam+5. If Gillespie win, it'll be a nail-bitter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unless Quinnipiac has changed its methods since the primary, I'm viewing the Northam+7 poll with skepticism. Quinnipiac consistently had Perriello narrowly leading in it. My prediction is somewhere between Northam +3 and Northam+5. If Gillespie win, it'll be a nail-bitter.

I think you're mixing your polls; the last Q poll was Northam +14 (53-39).  I do think that was an outlier (and so was the Hampton poll with Gillespie +8), and your prediction is in the same range as mine.

[Gass3268]

Unless Quinnipiac has changed its methods since the primary, I'm viewing the Northam+7 poll with skepticism. Quinnipiac consistently had Perriello narrowly leading in it. My prediction is somewhere between Northam +3 and Northam+5. If Gillespie win, it'll be a nail-bitter.

I think you're mixing your polls; the last Q poll was Northam +14 (53-39).  I do think that was an outlier (and so was the Hampton poll with Gillespie +8), and your prediction is in the same range as mine.

Fox had the recent poll that was Northam +7

[SoLongAtlas]

VA: Northam by 3.

[Virginiá]

Northam:  +6 to +8
Murphy:    +15 to +18

I'm not sure about the VA LtGov/AG, but I think if Northam wins, they will follow him into office.

[Mr.Phips]

50-47 Northam.

[Bidenworth2020]

50.6% Northam

46.9% Gillespie

[Fuzzy Bear]

Gillespie   50.25
Northam  49.10

[Skill and Chance]

GOV

Northam 49/47

LT GOV

Vogel 49.6/49.3 after recount

AG

Herring 51/46

HoD

59R/41D (D+7)

[MT Treasurer]

VA-GOV

49.5% Northam (D)
47.3% Gillespie (R)
3.2% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

50.7% Fairfax (D)
48.8% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

No idea what will happen, though. I have a hard time believing that Republicans can really win a statewide race here, honestly. VA's strong Democratic lean/trend and it being an off-year election/the federal opposition party turnout phenomenon should save the Ds in the end, though Gillespie has run a pretty good campaign so far, it seems. He obviously knows his state well, but like I said... I just don't think the votes are there for him to win. Lean D.

There's also the possibility that Democrats actually outperform their polling average.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Northam 51.22%
Gillespie 46.26%

While the above outcome is still possible, this wouldn't surprise me:

Northam 49.43%
Gillespie 47.81%

[Skill and Chance]

Northam 51.22%
Gillespie 46.26%

While the above outcome is still possible, this wouldn't surprise me:

Northam 49.43%
Gillespie 47.81%

I am torn between the standard Republican takes all the undecideds in VA scenario, which wold result in something like this with Northam +1-2 and the polls are hedging on truly insane Dem postgrad turnout in NOVA and Richmond/Charlottesville and all the statewide Dems get Obama 2008 numbers.  If it's another 2013, Vogel should take LG.

[Dr. MB]

Northam 48–47 or Gillespie 48–47

[ChelseaT]

Northam 51-46

[Devout Centrist]

52-44 Northam

[OneJ]

Going a little bold and will say +5-+7 in favor of Northam.

[fluffypanther19]

northam win: margin is probably around 2-4

gillepsie win: margin is up to a percent , maybe 1.5 if he is really overperforming, probably less though

[NewYorkExpress]

GOV: Northam 50, Gillespie 47, Hyra 3

Lt. GOV: Fairfax 50.4%, Vogel 49.6%

Attorney General: Herring 51, Adams 49

House of Delegates: 55-45, D+11

[JonHawk]

I think it will come within 1-2 points either way, but i think Northam takes it...barely.

Northam - 48.7
Gillipsie - 47.6
Hyra - 3.7

[Vern]

Gillepise wins by 1.2%

Vogel wins by .8%

Herring wins by 3.2%

[President Johnson]

Governor:

Northam: 50.21%
Gillespie: 47.06%

Lieutenant Governor:

Vogel: 48.08%
Fairfax: 47.66%

VA-GOV

49.5% Northam (D)
47.3% Gillespie (R)
3.2% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

50.7% Fairfax (D)
48.8% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

No idea what will happen, though. I have a hard time believing that Republicans can really win a statewide race here, honestly. VA's strong Democratic lean/trend and it being an off-year election/the federal opposition party turnout phenomenon should save the Ds in the end, though Gillespie has run a pretty good campaign so far, it seems. He obviously knows his state well, but like I said... I just don't think the votes are there for him to win. Lean D.

There's also the possibility that Democrats actually outperform their polling average.

Fairfax won't outperform Northam.

[Skill and Chance]

Governor:

Northam: 50.21%
Gillespie: 47.06%

Lieutenant Governor:

Vogel: 48.08%
Fairfax: 47.66%

VA-GOV

49.5% Northam (D)
47.3% Gillespie (R)
3.2% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

50.7% Fairfax (D)
48.8% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

No idea what will happen, though. I have a hard time believing that Republicans can really win a statewide race here, honestly. VA's strong Democratic lean/trend and it being an off-year election/the federal opposition party turnout phenomenon should save the Ds in the end, though Gillespie has run a pretty good campaign so far, it seems. He obviously knows his state well, but like I said... I just don't think the votes are there for him to win. Lean D.

There's also the possibility that Democrats actually outperform their polling average.

Fairfax won't outperform Northam.

Yep, if VA-GOV is only Northam +2, LG is going to a recount at best for Fairfax.  He can't withstand even the slightest Shy Republican polling error.  Although it's worth noting that the VA 2013 polling was accurate for LG and AG and only overstated McAuliffe's margin at the top of the ticket.

[heatcharger]

^ There’s no Libertarian candidate on the ballot for either the LG or AG races. Therefore in all likelihood Fairfax and Herring will get a higher vote % than Northam.

[Skill and Chance]

^ There’s no Libertarian candidate on the ballot for either the LG or AG races. Therefore in all likelihood Fairfax and Herring will get a higher vote % than Northam.

Thinking about margin here.  I wouldn't assume libertarians are hurting Dems in margin terms, probably the opposite.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Governor:
Northam wins 53.25%
Gillespie 45.63%
Hyra 1.12% (Yellow makes the text hard to read, so the Libertarians don't get a color )*

Northam wins by 7.62%

LG:
Fairfax 51.63%
Vogel 48.37%

Fairfax wins by 3.26%

AG:
Herring 55.08%
Adams 44.92%

Herring wins by 10.16%

House of Delegates: I could see this being anywhere from D +8 to D +12, so I'll split the difference and say D +10

*I think almost all of Hyra's votes this time around will be from folks who would've held their noses and voted Gillespie in a two-way race rather than voting for a Democrat.  There's basically no reason for anyone who'd ever consider voting Democratic to vote third party this cycle, especially after what happened in 2016.