Donald Trump (D-NY)/Tim Kaine (D-VA) vs. Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Nikki Haley (R-SC)

[OBD]

The primary season has just ended, and Trump and Rubio have won their respective parties's primaries. 2016 is gearing up to be one of the most divisive elections of all time, with Trump's blistering attacks on Rubio and the Republican Congress. Will Rubio lead the Republicans back to the White House? Or will Trump score the upset victory?

Polling, July 2016
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 42%
Gary Johnson 2%
Jill Stein 1%
Undecided/Other 6%

[Kingpoleon]

313: Marco Rubio/Nikki Haley - 47.5%
225: Donald Trump/Tim Kaine - 43.2%
Ed Case/Jane Kim(Independent) - 2.6%
Others - 6.7%

Hawaii voted heavily for Ed Case, to be clear.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So Trump wouldnt be a birther in this scenario

[darklordoftech]

What would Trump's platform be? No Democrat is going to run on birtherism, border control, or anti-terrorism.

[OBD]

Uhh, this is actually more like a story than a predictions thread. Just fyi.

[OBD]

Statewide Polling, July 15, 2016

In the middle of sunny July, Marco Rubio has a sizable advantage, putting traditional Democratic states like New Mexico and Oregon into competition. That said, Trump still has a path to victory, albeit a narrow one.

Swing State Polling

Oregon
Donald Trump 48%
Marco Rubio 42%
Undecided/Other 10%

Nevada
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 8%

New Mexico
Donald Trump 49%
Marco Rubio 44%
Undecided/Other 7%

Colorado
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 46%
Undecided/Other 7%

Iowa
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 6%

Minnesota
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 47%
Undecided/Other 6%

Wisconsin
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 7%

Michigan
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 46%
Undecided/Other 6%

Ohio
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 6%

Florida
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 8%

North Carolina
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 7%

Virginia
Donald Trump 47%
Marco Rubio 47%
Undecided/Other 6%

Pennsylvania
Marco Rubio 46%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 9%

New Hampshire
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 8%

Maine AL
Marco Rubio 45%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 10%

[OBD]

On the Campaign Trail, July 2016

Marco Rubio
The Rubio team played it safe in July, campaigning swing states in the Midwest and Northeast, plus Nevada and Virginia. Interestingly, Rubio did make an appearance in New Mexico with Susana Martinez, an indication he may be targeting the state.

Donald Trump
Donald Trump campaigned heavily in the Midwest, promising more jobs and an improvement in the economy. His blunt criticizing of the Obama administration and numerous gaffes lead to his Midwest campaign hurting him more than helping him, at least so it seemed.

August 2016 Nationwide Polling
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 41%
Other/Undecided 9%

[Lord Admirale]

I think Trump could make West Virginia, Kentucky, and a few southern states more competitive, while Rubio would do better in affluent suburban states. Either way, a very interesting timeline!

[OBD]

Statewide Polling, August 1, 2016

Rubio continues to widen his already sizable lead heading into August, gaining about a point on Trump across the board. New Mexico has been reclassified from 'Lean Trump' to Tossup, and Washington has been reclassified from 'Likely Trump' to 'Lean Trump', an interesting development in the solid Atlas red state. In other news, Iowa has been reclassified from 'Lean Rubio' to 'Likely Rubio', Indiana has been reclassified from 'Likely Rubio' to 'Solid Rubio', Wisconsin has been reclassified from 'Tossup' to 'Lean Rubio

Swing State Polling

Washington
Donald Trump 50%
Marco Rubio 41%
Undecided/Other 9%

Oregon
Donald Trump 47%
Marco Rubio 42%
Undecided/Other 11%

Nevada
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 8%

New Mexico
Donald Trump 48%
Marco Rubio 44%
Undecided/Other 8%

Colorado
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 8%

Iowa
Marco Rubio 52%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 6%

Minnesota
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 47%
Undecided/Other 5%

Wisconsin
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 7%

Michigan
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 6%

Ohio
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 6%

Florida
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 6%

North Carolina
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 8%

Virginia
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 47%
Undecided/Other 6%

Pennsylvania
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 8%

New Hampshire
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 7%

Maine AL
Marco Rubio 46%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 9%

[OBD]

On the Campaign Trail, Early August
Sensing an opportunity to retake the Pacific Northwest, Marco Rubio campaigned hard on the West Coast. He also attacked Trump's age and lack of political experience, as well as his party flip-flopping over the years. His vice president, Nikki Haley campaigned for him in the Midwest and Virginia with prominent regional Republicans like Scott Walker (R-WI) and John Kasich (R-OH).

Donald Trump, for some reason we don't really understand, spent a ton of time in West Virginia and Kentucky. He may be trying to capitalize on his support for coal there. Additionally, he spent a little time in Virginia and the rest of the Midwest.

Mid-August National Polling
Marco Rubio 52%
Donald Trump 41%
Undecided 7%

[OBD]

BERNIE SANDERS MULLS INDEPENDENT RUN!?!
Stating that Donald Trump was too conservative for the Democratic Party, and citing that his supporters are encouraging him to run, Bernie Sanders announced he was considering an independent run. The Trump team and the DNC are currently trying to encourage him not to run, as he would be a death knell to their campaign.

Mid-August National Polling, with Bernie Sanders
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 35%
Bernie Sanders 7%
Undecided 8%

[OBD]

Statewide Polling, August 15, 2016 (no Bernie)

As Bernie Sanders looms large over the race, Trump has continued to lose ground to Rubio. Oregon has moved from "Lean Trump" to "Toss-up", Nevada moves from "Toss-up" to "Lean Rubio", as does Michigan. In a stunning turn, Trump is within striking distance in West Virginia and Kentucky, and is closer than expected in Tennessee, possibly due to his support of coal and support from Joe Manchin, Steve Beshear, and Jim Webb. Tennessee is now "Likely Rubio", and West Virginia and Kentucky are "Lean Rubio". All 3 states were "Solid Rubio" two weeks ago. Indiana, as well, is now "Likely Rubio".

Swing State Polling

Washington
Donald Trump 48%
Marco Rubio 42%
Undecided/Other 10%

Oregon
Donald Trump 45%
Marco Rubio 43%
Undecided/Other 12%

Nevada
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 7%

New Mexico
Donald Trump 47%
Marco Rubio 45%
Undecided/Other 8%

Colorado
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 8%

Iowa
Marco Rubio 53%
Donald Trump 41%
Undecided/Other 6%

Minnesota
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 46%
Undecided/Other 6%

Wisconsin
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 7%

Michigan
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 7%

Ohio
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 6%

Florida
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 5%

North Carolina
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 41%
Undecided/Other 9%

Virginia
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 46%
Undecided/Other 6%

Pennsylvania
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 7%

New Hampshire
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 6%

Maine AL
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 46%
Undecided/Other 7%

West Virginia
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 10%

Kentucky
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 41%
Undecided/Other 11%

[The Govanah Jake]

#MakeWestVirginiaBlueAgain

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Trump is running as a pro-coal, but otherwise left-wing populist, I think he wins West Virginia and Kentucky and makes states like Arkansas and Louisiana competitive.

[OBD]

If Trump is running as a pro-coal, but otherwise left-wing populist, I think he wins West Virginia and Kentucky and makes states like Arkansas and Louisiana competitive.

I agree. As the (*FAKE NEWS* (jk)) media doesn't poll (supposedly) uncompetitive states, they haven't discovered Trump is doing well in the south yet.

[The Govanah Jake]

If Trump is running as a pro-coal, but otherwise left-wing populist, I think he wins West Virginia and Kentucky and makes states like Arkansas and Louisiana competitive.

Also speaking of Left Wing Populist, why wouldn't Trump be leading in states like Michigan if he is doing well in West Virginia and Kentucky

[OBD]

If Trump is running as a pro-coal, but otherwise left-wing populist, I think he wins West Virginia and Kentucky and makes states like Arkansas and Louisiana competitive.

Also speaking of Left Wing Populist, why wouldn't Trump be leading in states like Michigan if he is doing well in West Virginia and Kentucky

While he is doing well among the voters that propelled him to victory in OTL '16, he isn't doing well amongst the traditional Democratic base. While this isn't a big deal in West Virginia and Kentucky, as well as the South, it hurts him in more liberal states.

[OBD]

Internal Democratic Polling shows close races in AR, LA. Trump to campaign in the South
In an interesting development, Donald Trump claimed internal polling showed that he was leading in Kentucky and West Virginia, and very close to Rubio in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Thus, he is campaigning heavily in that region.

Rubio on the Campaign Trail
Meanwhile, Rubio is continuing to take aim at the West Coast, making numerous campaign stops in Oregon and Washington. He also has done multiple runs over the Midwest to drum up conservative support in the region, where he currently leads. The GOP is convinced that Rubio will hold the Appalachian states at the moment, and is not very concerned about Trump campaigning there.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Internal Democratic Polling shows close races in AR, LA. Trump to campaign in the South
In an interesting development, Donald Trump claimed internal polling showed that he was leading in Kentucky and West Virginia, and very close to Rubio in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Thus, he is campaigning heavily in that region.

Rubio on the Campaign Trail
Meanwhile, Rubio is continuing to take aim at the West Coast, making numerous campaign stops in Oregon and Washington. He also has done multiple runs over the Midwest to drum up conservative support in the region, where he currently leads. The GOP is convinced that Rubio will hold the Appalachian states at the moment, and is not very concerned about Trump campaigning there.

I saw this coming.

[OBD]

I saw this coming.

Yeah, I'm trying to use other people's advice for this TL.

[OBD]

Tension on the Democratic Ticket? Tim Kaine calls Trump 'a moron' in phone call
Reports of tension within the Democratic party were amplified when Tim Kaine, in a phone call with Keith Ellison, reportedly called Trump "an idiot and a moron". Kaine was known to be displeased when Trump announced that he was focusing on campaigning in the south. While Kaine has denied this, rumors are circulating that Kaine will drop out and force Trump to pick a new VP.

[OBD]

September 1 National Polling
Marco Rubio 52%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided 6%

[OBD]

Statewide Polling, September 1, 2016

Bernie Sanders will not run, to the relief of the DNC. However, Trump's schism with Tim Kaine is costing him in Virginia and other states. Washington, surprisingly, is now a toss-up. Colorado is now Lean Rubio, as is Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, West Virginia and Kentucky are now tossups, meaning Trump's Southern Strategy may have some merit. Additionally, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana have all become competitive, and their ratings have shifted to Lean Rubio. Mississippi and Missouri are now Likely Rubio.

Swing State Polling

Washington
Donald Trump 47%
Marco Rubio 43%
Undecided/Other 10%

Oregon
Marco Rubio 44%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 12%

Nevada
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 6%

New Mexico
Donald Trump 47%
Marco Rubio 46%
Undecided/Other 7%

Colorado
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 8%

Iowa
Marco Rubio 53%
Donald Trump 40%
Undecided/Other 7%

Minnesota
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 6%

Wisconsin
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 6%

Michigan
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 8%

Ohio
Marco Rubio 52%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 5%

Florida
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 5%

North Carolina
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 7%

Virginia
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 6%

Pennsylvania
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 7%

New Hampshire
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 5%

Maine AL
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 8%

West Virginia
Donald Trump 45%
Marco Rubio 45%
Undecided/Other 10%

Kentucky
Marco Rubio 46%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 11%

Tennessee
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 10%

Arkansas
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 41%
Undecided/Other 9%

Louisiana
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 8%

[Lechasseur]

I'd vote for Trump/Kaine but I think Rubio/Haley would probably win fairly easily.

[OBD]

Statewide Polling, September 15, 2016

With the first debate on the horizon, this update will be concise. Rubio has taken a lead in Oregon and New Mexico and is within striking distance in Washington State. Meanwhile, Trump is surging in Appalachia and the South.

Swing State Polling

Washington
Donald Trump 46%
Marco Rubio 44%
Undecided/Other 10%

Oregon
Marco Rubio 45%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 11%

Nevada
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 6%

New Mexico
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 46%
Undecided/Other 7%

Colorado
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 7%

Iowa
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 41%
Undecided/Other 8%

Minnesota
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 5%

Wisconsin
Marco Rubio 51%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 5%

Michigan
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 9%

Ohio
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 6%

Florida
Marco Rubio 52%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 4%

North Carolina
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 42%
Undecided/Other 8%

Virginia
Marco Rubio 49%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 6%

Pennsylvania
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 8%

New Hampshire
Marco Rubio 50%
Donald Trump 45%
Undecided/Other 5%

Maine AL
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 8%

West Virginia
Donald Trump 48%
Marco Rubio 42%
Undecided/Other 10%

Kentucky
Donald Trump 46%
Marco Rubio 43%
Undecided/Other 11%

Tennessee
Marco Rubio 44%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 12%

Arkansas
Marco Rubio 47%
Donald Trump 44%
Undecided/Other 9%

Louisiana
Marco Rubio 48%
Donald Trump 43%
Undecided/Other 9%