When will Cabbarus County,NC go democrat?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss. this one isn't quite as ripe as say, Tarrant county, but I'd still say 2028.

[Keep cool-idge]

Not for a while yes it has had swings to the democrats it’s a county that hasn’t voted democrat since Truman and before FDR was a leaning republican swing county.

[RINO Tom]

Not for a while yes it has had swings to the democrats it’s a county that hasn’t voted democrat since Truman and before FDR was a leaning republican swing county.

Meh. Look at how fast the suburban counties around Fulton County, GA shifted from 2004-->2016. Or NoVA in that time period. Or Orange County, CA.

Weren't those all pretty much caused by demographic change or an influx of transplants?  Not saying those were the only reasons, but those changes easily provided the margin of victory.  What is Cabbarus like?  I know nothing about it.  Would it be caused by one of those changes or a predicted exodus of formerly Republican voters?

[mvd10]

I think for a lot of these wealthy Republican suburban counties it's either 2020 or not in the forseeable future. It's hard to find a Republican more toxic to wealthy conservatives than Trump. Even if they nominate Cotton or so he'll definitely do better than Trump with wealthy voters. Romney won people earning over 100k 54-44 while losing 51-47 overall. GWB outperformed similarly with wealthy voters (58-41 with wealthy voters vs 51-48 with the general electorate). If the Republicans nominate Pence or Cotton (which is a big if though) in 2024 wealthy voters probably will go back to the Republicans, especially if the Democratic incumbent is someone like Warren or Sanders.

[RINO Tom]

I think for a lot of these wealthy Republican suburban counties it's either 2020 or not in the forseeable future. It's hard to find a Republican more toxic to wealthy conservatives than Trump. Even if they nominate Cotton or so he'll definitely do better than Trump with wealthy voters. Romney won people earning over 100k 54-44 while losing 51-47 overall. GWB outperformed similarly with wealthy voters (58-41 with wealthy voters vs 51-48 with the general electorate). If the Republicans nominate Pence or Cotton (which is a big if though) in 2024 wealthy voters probably will go back to the Republicans, especially if the Democratic incumbent is someone like Warren or Sanders.

More* wealthy voters will go back to the Republicans.  Let us not forget that the exit polls looked like this in literally the tailor made matchup for wealthy voters to vote Democrat and many less wealthy voters to vote Republican:

Under $30k: 53% DEM, 41% GOP
$30k-$50k: 51% DEM, 42% GOP
$50k-$100k: 50% GOP, 46% DEM
$100k-$199k: 48% GOP, 47% DEM
$200k-$250k: 49% GOP, 48% DEM
Over $250k: 48% GOP, 48% DEM

[mvd10]

I think for a lot of these wealthy Republican suburban counties it's either 2020 or not in the forseeable future. It's hard to find a Republican more toxic to wealthy conservatives than Trump. Even if they nominate Cotton or so he'll definitely do better than Trump with wealthy voters. Romney won people earning over 100k 54-44 while losing 51-47 overall. GWB outperformed similarly with wealthy voters (58-41 with wealthy voters vs 51-48 with the general electorate). If the Republicans nominate Pence or Cotton (which is a big if though) in 2024 wealthy voters probably will go back to the Republicans, especially if the Democratic incumbent is someone like Warren or Sanders.

More* wealthy voters will go back to the Republicans.  Let us not forget that the exit polls looked like this in literally the tailor made matchup for wealthy voters to vote Democrat and many less wealthy voters to vote Republican:

Under $30k: 53% DEM, 41% GOP
$30k-$50k: 51% DEM, 42% GOP
$50k-$100k: 50% GOP, 46% DEM
$100k-$199k: 48% GOP, 47% DEM
$200k-$250k: 49% GOP, 48% DEM
Over $250k: 48% GOP, 48% DEM

Well, scoring 48% of the wealthy voters in a two-party system is really pathetic for a right-wing party (but then again, Trump did much better with less wealthy voters), and even candidates like Romney or Bush did relatively bad with wealthy voters compared to European right-wing parties. Most European countries have more than 2 big political parties, but if you add up all parties that are considered right-of-centre I think the European right scores better with wealthy voters (and worse with working/middle-class voters) than the American right.

But Trump probably is one of the few Western right-wing populists whose voters are wealthier than the average voter (maybe the Progress Party in Norway or the Swiss People's Party in Switzerland also have relatively wealthy voter bases? I'm not really an expert on these countries ). But if you only count the diehard core Trump supporters that would also vote for him in a parliamentary PR system I'm not sure whether his base is much different from the average right-wing populist party.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think for a lot of these wealthy Republican suburban counties it's either 2020 or not in the forseeable future. It's hard to find a Republican more toxic to wealthy conservatives than Trump. Even if they nominate Cotton or so he'll definitely do better than Trump with wealthy voters. Romney won people earning over 100k 54-44 while losing 51-47 overall. GWB outperformed similarly with wealthy voters (58-41 with wealthy voters vs 51-48 with the general electorate). If the Republicans nominate Pence or Cotton (which is a big if though) in 2024 wealthy voters probably will go back to the Republicans, especially if the Democratic incumbent is someone like Warren or Sanders.

Why would the GOP/RNC want to go back to campaigning like Bush and Romney after Trump electoral win was larger than both of them. Also what if the Sanders wing of the party don't take over which is looking more likely every day after Perez, Northam, and Bauman victories.

[mvd10]

I think for a lot of these wealthy Republican suburban counties it's either 2020 or not in the forseeable future. It's hard to find a Republican more toxic to wealthy conservatives than Trump. Even if they nominate Cotton or so he'll definitely do better than Trump with wealthy voters. Romney won people earning over 100k 54-44 while losing 51-47 overall. GWB outperformed similarly with wealthy voters (58-41 with wealthy voters vs 51-48 with the general electorate). If the Republicans nominate Pence or Cotton (which is a big if though) in 2024 wealthy voters probably will go back to the Republicans, especially if the Democratic incumbent is someone like Warren or Sanders.

Why would the GOP/RNC want to go back to campaigning like Bush and Romney after Trump electoral win was larger than both of them. Also what if the Sanders wing of the party don't take over which is looking more likely every day after Perez, Northam, and Bauman victories.

If Trump loses in a landslide in 2020 (which is certainly possible) I have trouble seeing the GOP continuing with Trumpism. It didn't get them any legislative victories either, and the overwhelming majority of GOP officeholders doesn't like Trump's positions. I don't think the moderates will take over, I think the 2024 nominee will be Tom Cotton (who has some populist leanings, but I'm pretty sure he's a lot less toxic to your traditional suburban Republican).

And maybe the Sanders wing won't completely take over, but a lot of Democratic establishment candidates have adopted Sanders' proposals. And young Democratic voters are quite left-wing. But I do agree that Sanders' most extreme proposals will never be enacted (65% capital gains tax rate lol), but the next Democratic president probably will be pretty left-wing.

[RINO Tom]

I think for a lot of these wealthy Republican suburban counties it's either 2020 or not in the forseeable future. It's hard to find a Republican more toxic to wealthy conservatives than Trump. Even if they nominate Cotton or so he'll definitely do better than Trump with wealthy voters. Romney won people earning over 100k 54-44 while losing 51-47 overall. GWB outperformed similarly with wealthy voters (58-41 with wealthy voters vs 51-48 with the general electorate). If the Republicans nominate Pence or Cotton (which is a big if though) in 2024 wealthy voters probably will go back to the Republicans, especially if the Democratic incumbent is someone like Warren or Sanders.

Why would the GOP/RNC want to go back to campaigning like Bush and Romney after Trump electoral win was larger than both of them. Also what if the Sanders wing of the party don't take over which is looking more likely every day after Perez, Northam, and Bauman victories.

If Trump loses in a landslide in 2020 (which is certainly possible) I have trouble seeing the GOP continuing with Trumpism. It didn't get them any legislative victories either, and the overwhelming majority of GOP officeholders doesn't like Trump's positions. I don't think the moderates will take over, I think the 2024 nominee will be Tom Cotton (who has some populist leanings, but I'm pretty sure he's a lot less toxic to your traditional suburban Republican).

And maybe the Sanders wing won't completely take over, but a lot of Democratic establishment candidates have adopted Sanders' proposals. And young Democratic voters are quite left-wing. But I do agree that Sanders' most extreme proposals will never be enacted (65% capital gains tax rate lol), but the next Democratic president probably will be pretty left-wing.

It seems all of the "demographics is destiny" believers conveniently ignore that it is the oldest Republicans who identify with "Trumpism" and the oldest Democrats that identify with "Clintonism."  It's perfectly reasonable to think the two parties will more closely resemble their younger voters in a few decades, and right now that means a slightly more libertarian GOP and a more Bernie-esque Democratic Party.