Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the latest projections?

[Hash]

Obligatory Urk results post:

SGP 54.4% (-1.7)
PVV 13.8% (+2.8)
FVD 9.5% (+7.8)
CU 8.1% (-3.5)
CDA 7.8% (-6.4)
VVD 1.7% (-0.1)
Jezus Leeft 1.4% (+0.7)
JA21 0.9%

I guess anti-lockdown rhetoric did find a bit of a receptive audience here.

[Logical]

What are the latest projections?

VVD 35
D66 26
PVV 18
CDA 14
PVDA 9
GL 8
SP 8
FVD 8
PVDD 5
CU 4
JA21 4
VOLT 3
SGP 3
DENK 2
50PLUS 1
BIJ1 1
BBB 1

https://www.verkiezingensite.nl/

[Oryxslayer]

D66 wins the cities of Utrecht, Deventer, Zwolle, as well as Diemen. Large gains in all 4. Additionally  there is Breda with a 5% D66 gain. So yeah, urban areas will be big, just gonna take a while too see these guys go green.

Also I direct your attention to the 6.5% result for VOLT in Utrecht, and the 4% in Diemen.

EDIT: 5.5% for Volt in Groningen which the D66 also carry.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Obligatory Urk results post:

SGP 54.4% (-1.7)
PVV 13.8% (+2.
FVD 9.5% (+7.
CU 8.1% (-3.5)
CDA 7.8% (-6.4)
VVD 1.7% (-0.1)
Jezus Leeft 1.4% (+0.7)
JA21 0.9%

I guess anti-lockdown rhetoric did find a bit of a receptive audience here.

What the hell is Urk?

[Oryxslayer]

Obligatory Urk results post:

SGP 54.4% (-1.7)
PVV 13.8% (+2.
FVD 9.5% (+7.
CU 8.1% (-3.5)
CDA 7.8% (-6.4)
VVD 1.7% (-0.1)
Jezus Leeft 1.4% (+0.7)
JA21 0.9%

I guess anti-lockdown rhetoric did find a bit of a receptive audience here.

What the hell is Urk?

A former island in the IJsselmeer until it was connected to the mainland after WWII via polder. The isolation of the island preserved traditional life and their unique dialect. It's that dot of orange on the map north of Flevoland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the latest projections?

VVD 35
D66 26
PVV 18
CDA 14
PVDA 9
GL 8
SP 8
FVD 8
PVDD 5
CU 4
JA21 4
VOLT 3
SGP 3
DENK 2
50PLUS 1
BIJ1 1
BBB 1

https://www.verkiezingensite.nl/

Quite the landslide for the government. Undeserved, but it isn't as if anyone proposed an alternative.

[danny]

The highest place for Volt that I have seen so far is Wageningen at 8%, high enough to be one of the few places D66 dropped (even though they remain the largest party).

[Oryxslayer]

And Amsterdam is in.

D66 Wins with 22.8%, VVD loses support, GL down 9.4%, 6% for Volt, 5.9% for BIJ1.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's some of the most interesting change-in-support maps from 201&;

D66 gains the most in cities and urban areas unsurprisingly.



You can basically see the VVD gobble up the CDA. They lost ground in the traditional suburbs and gained in the areas with good 2017 CDA numbers.



Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw, here is a map from which one can construct maps from.
All I ask is that I am credited.

[Oryxslayer]

Edam-Volendam doing something weird. Its one of only a few areas where the PVV improved on 2017, and its in the heart of Holland. FvD and JA21 made gains comparable to elsewhere, it was the CDA which fell off. Any explanations?

[Oryxslayer]

Most are asleep at this point so I'll leave this and sign off: all the larger municipalities and some of the smaller ones are noting that these results are only preliminary counts based on usually >80% of the vote. More votes will be counted later, bumping up the more urban parties. This includes Rotterdam which expects a long delay on any results.

I only not this because it appears turnout is down on the results site in a lot of places at first glace, and the votes are nowhere near their final total in 2017 despite the comparable turnout numbers. 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

D66 only 24 seats now, instead of the projected 27.
GL also one seat down, but SP gained one
PvdD gained one seat
And BIJ1 might've missed that seat (is now down one seat, so out of parliament).

Things might still change though. (esp. for the more urban-focused parties, i assume)

Hopefully Jesse Klaver will resign, and he probably will.

BBB also above 50+ lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GL vote tally halved in Amsterdam relative to 2017, and the same happened in Den Haag. BIJ1 votes increase by 2.5x.
Rotterdam is not in yet.

[Zinneke]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

[Zinneke]

Edam-Volendam doing something weird. Its one of only a few areas where the PVV improved on 2017, and its in the heart of Holland. FvD and JA21 made gains comparable to elsewhere, it was the CDA which fell off. Any explanations?

Its historically a fishing port, the kind of Christian one like Katwijk, but that got shafted for a bunch of reasons and is now mostly known for its suicide rate and cocaine trade. Has always been one of the PVV's best towns outside of Limburg that FvD started to take over too. Very lower middle class and white means far right do well.

[Zinneke]

Thanks to all for answers. On a personal note, it’s pretty tragic that I can actually remember when Jesse Klaver was the Guardian’s latest pin up populist slaying great white hope for Europe and European vAlUeS. RIP vrijheidsvechter 😢

And I remember the Times declaring Baudet kingmaker that same election despite having only 2 seats. It just goes to show the tunnel vision of the British press.

Anyway, Klaver is not a very good campaigner. Last time out he was exposed during the debate. This time out he wasn't really able to do what he does best, which is having a large stage at a university hall and delivers a Jessiah lecture. The fact that PvdD have swung slightly leftwards and more orientated towards becoming "Dark Green" also will not have helped. Thieme was popular with everyone, but for some reason Owenand hasn't dropped the batton.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

why did CDA gain in Schagen?

[jeron]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

Especially in Southern Limburg the culture is quite different. People from there consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country. Generally, they regard the rest of the country as Holland and of course they themselves are not included in that. Little anecdote: A friend of mine who comes from Oss in Northern Brabant (a southern province) went to uni in Maastricht. People asked him if he was from the North, of course he replied no, i am from Oss. The Limburgish people answered: That is the north!
What always surprises me most out there is that people flatout refuse to talk Dutch even when you talk to them in Dutch, but cling to their own dialect instead, even in a city like Maastricht

[jeron]

Thanks to all for answers. On a personal note, it’s pretty tragic that I can actually remember when Jesse Klaver was the Guardian’s latest pin up populist slaying great white hope for Europe and European vAlUeS. RIP vrijheidsvechter 😢

And I remember the Times declaring Baudet kingmaker that same election despite having only 2 seats. It just goes to show the tunnel vision of the British press.

Anyway, Klaver is not a very good campaigner. Last time out he was exposed during the debate. This time out he wasn't really able to do what he does best, which is having a large stage at a university hall and delivers a Jessiah lecture. The fact that PvdD have swung slightly leftwards and more orientated towards becoming "Dark Green" also will not have helped. Thieme was popular with everyone, but for some reason Owenand hasn't dropped the batton.

Klaver's biggest mistake was not going into government jn 2017. It seemed like a smart move at the time and i suppose that he thought he could make the party grow in opposition, but it backfired spectacularly. Gradually the Jessiah image wore off, people lost interest and then Kaag and Volt came along. End of the Jessiah

[Zinneke]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

Especially in Southern Limburg the culture is quite different. People from there consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country. Generally, they regard the rest of the country as Holland and of course they themselves are not included in that. Little anecdote: A friend of mine who comes from Oss in Northern Brabant (a southern province) went to uni in Maastricht. People asked him if he was from the North, of course he replied no, i am from Oss. The Limburgish people answered: That is the north!
What always surprises me most out there is that people flatout refuse to talk Dutch even when you talk to them in Dutch, but cling to their own dialect instead, even in a city like Maastricht

Because I do some groundhopping, and Maastricht is a lovely city, I attended a South Limburg derby between Maastricht and Roda. Huge police presence, mock hangings, songs about WW2 collaboration, game stopped several times for crowd violence, Maastricht fans making a big deal of burning the Limburg flag, but still also finding the time to sing Hollanders Hollanders zet ze maar kapot, Hollanders Hollanders kogel in hun kop", presumably to the referee. Also they insist that Venlo should be part of Brabant, and that the only reason Limburgers aren't independent is because "we hate each other more".

You get the same provincial effect in Belgian Limburg. By far and away the ones who make the most noise about Flemish nationalism favouring Antwerp and Brussels rather than them, always voting for their own, etc.

[Zinneke]

Worth noting JA21 leader Eerdmans has worked before with D66 at the local level in Rotterdam. Dutch local politics is...strange...but its not out of the question, given JA21 inherited a lot of FvD seats in the Senate, that Eerdmans plays a more constructive role with a view to showing voters he won't just stay on the sidelines but actually influence policy.

[Zinneke]

And Eerdmans' local profile is seemingly helping them at the death. VOLT are now slightly ahead but with Rotterdam still to come in and the surrounding towns voting JA21 above their national average they should be able to take a seat.

[H. Ross Peron]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

Especially in Southern Limburg the culture is quite different. People from there consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country. Generally, they regard the rest of the country as Holland and of course they themselves are not included in that. Little anecdote: A friend of mine who comes from Oss in Northern Brabant (a southern province) went to uni in Maastricht. People asked him if he was from the North, of course he replied no, i am from Oss. The Limburgish people answered: That is the north!
What always surprises me most out there is that people flatout refuse to talk Dutch even when you talk to them in Dutch, but cling to their own dialect instead, even in a city like Maastricht

Because I do some groundhopping, and Maastricht is a lovely city, I attended a South Limburg derby between Maastricht and Roda. Huge police presence, mock hangings, songs about WW2 collaboration, game stopped several times for crowd violence, Maastricht fans making a big deal of burning the Limburg flag, but still also finding the time to sing Hollanders Hollanders zet ze maar kapot, Hollanders Hollanders kogel in hun kop", presumably to the referee. Also they insist that Venlo should be part of Brabant, and that the only reason Limburgers aren't independent is because "we hate each other more".

You get the same provincial effect in Belgian Limburg. By far and away the ones who make the most noise about Flemish nationalism favouring Antwerp and Brussels rather than them, always voting for their own, etc.

Interestingly, Limburg also is distinctive in having a much lower birth rate compared to the rest of the Netherlands at least according to data from 2003. https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2003/36/largest-families-in-urk