Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

There are two elections coming up, though. I guess D66 could pull a GL, as Van Ojik led the party as placeholder from 2012 until 2015 including the municipal, European and provincial elections. However, the difference with GL is that D66 are bound to lose a lot in the provincial and European elections unless something changes. They should probably just call a leadership election to be held in early February and be done with it.

I bet VVD and CDA would be happy with a placeholder though. D66 is clearly the unstable factor in the government: if anyone is going to pull the plug, it's D66. And they won't do so without a permanent leader.

[DavidB.]

The D66 MPs elected Rob Jetten as their new parliamentary group leader. A leadership election will follow later, but it seems obvious that Jetten would be a candidate.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What are positions of new leader on ecological issues and migration politics? Some major differences compared to Pechtold in different policies?

[DavidB.]

What are positions of new leader on ecological issues and migration politics? Some major differences compared to Pechtold in different policies?

Jetten has always carefully toed the party line so I don't know how, if in any way, he would differ from Pechtold.

[mvd10]

I (as always) agree with David's analysis. I don't know whether Kaag is really suitable to be a party leader, she's new in politics and she might prefer being minister over getting really political (though her speech seems to suggest something else). If Kaag wants it it probably is hers though, I imagine they definitely want a woman if possible lol (and the circlejerk over Kaag's speech was astounding). Ollongren is hated by too many people, Jetten and Paternotte are too inexperienced. If Kaag (or another minister) becomes party leader they'll also need a new fraction leader. Maybe that's something for Jetten. Jetten definitely was seen as the crown prince, even more so than Paternotte imo. Maybe Pia Dijkstra for fraction leader? But she's probably too old and I don't think she's interested. She could be a placeholder for Jetten or Paternotte I suppose.

Well, I atleast got something right . I imagine Jetten will be end up being the lijsttrekker/leader too, there is little point in choosing a relatively inexperienced but very promising person like Jetten as party leader if you don't atleast intend him to be lijsttrekker and face of the party in the future. If they wanted Kaag or Ollongren as lead candidate they probably would have picked someone who looks more like a placeholder (more experienced MP with less leadership ambitions).

[DavidB.]

They could theoretically also wait for a while and see whether he becomes as popular as desired. If not, they can elect a different leader (but it would probably have to be Kaag or Ollongren, no MP is going to challenge Jetten anymore) and claim Jetten was always just going to be the parliamentary leader. But I agree that it's much more likely that he will indeed become party leader now. Good grief. Dude seems like an empty suit to me.

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-tax-chevron/unions-accuse-chevron-of-massive-tax-avoidance-via-the-netherlands-idUSKCN1MJ1C3

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Damn the union workers must’ve been really ticked off.

[DavidB.]

The dividend tax will not be abolished. Instead, a number of measures aimed at lowering other taxes for both multinational corporations and SMEs are taken. The total package will cost 1.9 billion euros a year, equivalent to the costs of the proposed abolishment of the dividend tax.

Embarrassing for the VVD, but definitely the best decision and voters will forget about it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The new D66 leader doesn't seem to be popular and has made some embarassing media appearances. The decline of D66 will continue. Pechtold has left a sinking ship.

[DavidB.]

It does appear as if "Robot" Jetten isn't ready for this yet. His promotion came at the worst time. Meanwhile I'm still picking up certain signs suggesting that Kaag may interested.

A seat loss for D66 in the next election is inevitable, but they definitely won't fall back as much as in 2006 (admittedly a low bar), and if they actually pull the plug on the coalition by themselves they may be able to minimize their losses. Though this could easily backfire too, especially with their stability-oriented, highly educated electorate. The old D66 adagium "Regeren is halveren" (=governing means decreasing by half) still seems the best bet to me.

[DavidB.]

RIP to former Prime Minister Wim Kok (PvdA), who just passed away at age 80. Kok led the two purple governments (PvdA-VVD-D66, 1994-2002), was PvdA leader for sixteen years, Finance Minister in the Lubbers-III government for five years (1989-1994), and trade union leader for twelve years. He will be remembered as the union man who ultimately sang the praises of the PvdA "losing its ideological feathers" and embracing the Third Way. Kok led the last coalition before the Fortuyn revolt. At the time, Purple was popular, but everyone who thinks of Purple now thinks of Fortuyn and his electoral success. Afterwards, Kok made a lot of money at ING Bank, Shell, and KLM: he undoubtedly embodies the PvdA's embrace of capitalism.

[DC Al Fine]

RIP to former Prime Minister Wim Kok (PvdA), who just passed away at age 80. Kok led the two purple governments (PvdA-VVD-D66, 1994-2002), was PvdA leader for sixteen years, Finance Minister in the Lubbers-III government for five years (1989-1994), and trade union leader for twelve years. He will be remembered as the union man who ultimately sang the praises of the PvdA "losing its ideological feathers" and embracing the Third Way. Kok led the last coalition before the Fortuyn revolt. At the time, Purple was popular, but everyone who thinks of Purple now thinks of Fortuyn and his electoral success. Afterwards, Kok made a lot of money at ING Bank, Shell, and KLM: he undoubtedly embodies the PvdA's embrace of capitalism.

Not a fan of those Purple cabinets for obvious reasons. RIP.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl conducted a poll for the Provincial Elections in March.

These elections are very important, because the Provincial States (PS) elect the Senate, which used to be depoliticized in less politically polarized and fragmented times, but has now taken up an increasingly important political role. This means lacking a majority in the Senate is a real problem for any government.

Rutte's governments have lacked a majority in the Senate from May 2011 until the formation of the current coalition, so it's not the end not to have a majority, but it requires striking deals with additional parties. Since "constructive" opposition parties are running out of seats, this may prove more difficult now than it was at the time. But I'm sure SGP and PvdA will ultimately be willing to lend a helping hand to Rutte. GL will want to avoid to do so.

Voting behavior for PS19 by GE17 vote, compared to PS15:



The government has a one-seat majority in the Senate and needs a miracle to keep this majority, because D66 and CDA are destined to lose large numbers of seats in the PS and (therefore) in the Senate. The VVD are made of teflon and seem stable, CU will also be stable. Big winners in the PS elections will be GL and FVD. The PvdA may lose even more compared to their catastrophic result in PS15, which may damage Asscher's position (if they're lucky - he probably needs to go for them to be able to rebuild).

The picture is one of small gains for the left, big gains for the far-right (FVD +8%, PVV stable), losses for the center-right, and more losses for the "establishment 4" of VVD, CDA, D66, PvdA.

[parochial boy]

So, are privatised hospitals going bankrupt and kicking out patients a testament to the success of the Dutch healthcare system?

[mvd10]

There are several hospitals relatively close to the bankrupt hospitals and all patients found places in nearby hospitals while personnel of the closed hospitals very likely will find work at nearby hospitals. It's a sad situation, but it isn't like there are thousands of people without any access to good healthcare. Before being privatized these hospitals were racking up huge losses (but then the government subsidized it). Those hospitals went bankrupt because patients went to other hospitals with better reputations and a higher quality of care. It looks like there just was a surplus of hospitals in Flevoland and the Amsterdam region. That being said, it's still a very sad situation of course. Even though the bankruptcy of these hospitals might not be that bad if you put it into perspective it's fully understandable why people living close to these hospitals (or the people working there) are angry.

[DavidB.]

It's getting increasingly challenging with the level of fragmentation we're currently experiencing, and there seems to be no quick fix or potential solution with the system that we have (which is unlikely to change). We'll have to deal with it. I guess we'll have a two-horse race election once in a while, which makes coalition formation easier, but elections like in 2010 and 2017 with that level of fragmentation will likely only become more prevalent in the future. It is what it is.

FVD are a new populist right-wing party focusing on direct democracy, opposition to mass immigration, opposition to the EU, maintaining Dutch traditions and values, and lowering taxes for small and mid-sized businesses. They mainly attract voters from PVV, CDA and VVD.

[PSOL]

Can anyone tell me why the animal rights party hasn’t merged with the greens? Like do they attract different demographics or what?

[DavidB.]

Can anyone tell me why the animal rights party hasn’t merged with the greens? Like do they attract different demographics or what?

The PvdD are both much more "radical" in terms of worldview (degrowth, localization, hence euroskepticism) and much less willing to compromise than GL. In terms of voter demographics there is considerable overlap (but also differences: PvdD attract voters who do not necessarily identify as left-wing), but those who built the PvdD project generally have a different background than the GL leadership: they usually weren't part of the "left-wing bubble". So a different crowd, a different worldview, and a different strategy.

Moreover, parties generally only merge when all potential partners are in decline and face an existential crisis. The PvdD have only been growing. No need for them to merge with anybody.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It would even make more sense if they merge with SP but there is no need for them, and even if they polled below 3% they wouldn't still merge, cause they're trying to establish animal parties worldwide.

[PSOL]

Is the lasting effects of pillarisation that prominent in the Dutch system? How has the country not broken apart yet from the ongoing addition of parties in the parliament? There aren’t enough flags or colors on a rainbow to accommodate all the parties.

[DavidB.]

Is the lasting effects of pillarisation that prominent in the Dutch system? How has the country not broken apart yet from the ongoing addition of parties in the parliament? There aren’t enough flags or colors on a rainbow to accommodate all the parties.

The fragmentation is more of a consequence of pillarization not lasting... depillarization caused voters to actually choose between parties. The country has not fallen apart because most parties essentially almost want the same things - or, to put it differently, there are different long-term visions and different short-term visions, but the medium-term goal of almost all parties is the same: a prosperous and safe Netherlands with a decent welfare state embedded in a prosperous Europe.

The number of parties is not the problem. The effective number of parties is: the lack of big parties and abundance of mid-sized parties is.

[mvd10]

I'd caution with predicting doom by the way. The last couple of elections the end results have differed significantly from polling a few months before. In 2017 the PVV was polling in first while VVD was polling at 25 seats, but in the end VVD-CDA-D66-CU got a majority despite not having polled a majority in a single poll after the refugee crisis in August 2015. There was a last minute swing towards the VVD because of the Turkey row, but I wouldn't be surprised if most of the swing would have happened anyway because in the end voters wanted a party that could get some things done (as opposed to the PVV whose only purpose is to push the overton window to the right during elections). A few weeks before the 2012 election SP and VVD were tied at 23% with PvdA at 12% or so, in the end the result was 27% VVD, 25% PvdA and 10% for the SP. In 2010 there also were rather wild swings. At first CDA was in first with PVV in second, then PvdA surged after announcing popular Amsterdam mayor Cohen would be their candidate and in the end VVD (who were polling at historic lows in 2008 and 2009) surged and took it because of their relatively strong campaign which focused on the issues (voters appreciated it). In 2006 you had a similar government (CDA-VVD-D66 instead of VVD-CDA-D66-CU) which also pushed for unpopular policies and was seen as a government that didn't care about the poor. At one point a poll had the PvdA at 60 seats (!), but in the end they won 33 seats (SP won a whopping 25 seats though) and the CDA had a relatively easy election victory. Heck, even the VVD polled at 30-35 seats at one stage of the campaign because of the media attention the Rutte vs Verdonk leadership battle got, they ended up winning 22 and after the 2006 election they had a few terrible years (yet they won in 2010). The Dutch electorate is very volatile, so don't be surprised if the next general elections produce a completely different result.

Then again, the 2015 provincial elections already gave a rather splintered result (with VVD as the largest party with 16% of the vote) and I don't really see how any party will get a dominating result in the provincial elections (yeah, at this stage winning 20% of the vote is dominating lol). The coalition will almost certainly lose its majority in the senate and a new coalition would need a senate majority anyway, so I guess that even if in the 2021 (or 2019/2020) elections voters swing behind 1 party and produce a relatively stable result there still would be a ideologically incoherent coalition (VVD-CDA-D66-GL-CU or so) or a coalition without a senate majority.

And the country isn't falling apart because of the large amount of parties lol. If we had FPTP we'd probably end up with only a few parties just like the UK or the US. We might for example see a centre-right movement with parts of CDA and D66 coalesce around the VVD, but that party also would be prone to infighting (just look at the current Tory infighting or the Labour infighting in 2016) while now VVD, CDA and D66 work together relatively harmoniously. FPTP or whatever would just swap tough coalition negotiations for party infighting.

[Diouf]

I don't remember if this has been answered recently, but are there any debate on removing the senate, or at least the powers it has? A fully proportional electoral system is a holy virtue that should be protected at every cost, but there is little reason to complicate things with an additional chamber with a "mid-term election".

[mvd10]

I don't remember if this has been answered recently, but are there any debate on removing the senate, or at least the powers it has? A fully proportional electoral system is a holy virtue that should be protected at every cost, but there is little reason to complicate things with an additional chamber with a "mid-term election".

There are some people who want to do it, but it isn't going to happen because changing the Dutch constitution is extremely hard and in the end most parties oppose it. But there are a lot of people who think the Senate has become too political (originally it was meant to check whether laws are enforceable and in line with the constitution).

Buma harshly attacked VVD healthcare minister Bruins over the closing hospitals. He said ''liberaal rendementsdenken'' (liberal efficiency thinking, keep in mind that over here liberals are ''neoliberals'') caused the closing of these hospitals and that hospitals are more than a bunch of buildings. He did caution against left-wing healthcare plans though, he says society rather than the state should work things out. This isn't the first time Buma attacked the VVD over economic issues, he also said similar things about the VVD's labour market policies 2 years ago. The CDA's drop in the polls is underreported imo. It makes sense considering the CDA has a way higher share of ''boze burgers'' (''angry citizens'') than VVD, D66 or even CU, and this government probably hasn't done a lot to win the confidence of these voters. Unlike Pechtold or Segers (CU leader) Buma always railed against Rutte 2, and I bet there are a lot of culturally conservative voters who liked Buma's opposition to Rutte 2 but now are disappointed in the CDA.

[DavidB.]

I don't remember if this has been answered recently, but are there any debate on removing the senate, or at least the powers it has? A fully proportional electoral system is a holy virtue that should be protected at every cost, but there is little reason to complicate things with an additional chamber with a "mid-term election".

Interestingly there used to be more debate about this issue before 2011 - i.e. before governments with minorities in the Senate became the norm and before the Senate became this politicized. It was the typical kind of statement that you had to write essays for or against in secondary school. D66 and PVV still support abolishing the Senate, but there is barely any discussion about this issue anymore.

Apart from the fact that actually abolishing it would be politically impossible because our constitution is set in stone and can barely be changed (as mvd10 already alluded to), I think the international climate in which "anti-establishment" forces tend to take power (as well as the PVV experiment here) is partly the reason why even D66 don't talk about this anymore - the Senate is valued as a check on "anti-establishment" forces taking (too much) power, even if this is already highly unlikely because of the electoral system for parliament. Moreover, during the Rutte-II government, some Senate decisions were widely appreciated as unpopular legislation that had reached a bare majority in parliament due to shady coalition compromises was rolled back.

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FVD presented their treasurer Henk Otten as leading candidate for the Senate election. I had expected their main intellectual, Professor in Philosophy of Law Paul Cliteur, to be nominated for this. Otten is a safe choice and basically the number two within the party. He differs from Baudet in that he doesn't want much to do with the entire cultural Christian and reactionary ideas of Baudet (as well as his controversial detours) and would instead focus on the basics: lower taxes and less immigration. So more of a guy who is too right-wing for the VVD in all aspects but doesn't really appear to agree with the bigger ideological worldview of Baudet. A source of stability within the party.