Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

Had never heard of that Felix Klos guy, by the way. Hot damn, does he look like a pretentious a**hole. Though I see the irony of an FVD member saying this 100 euros that he wrote his own Wikipedia article. He looks like the kind of guy who could absolutely be on the D66 list (and a potential EP leadership bid could parachute him up on the list), but I think there's no doubt that In 't Veld will lead the next D66 delegation.

[mvd10]

Peak 21st century politics: PVV The Hague municipal council member Willie Dille claims to have been raped and abused by a group of Muslims 1 year ago. She claims fellow municipal council member Arnoud van Doorn (Muslim convert, leader of some local Muslim party) sent them to do it. Big if true. Arnoud van Doorn is a very nasty and radical man (converts are the worst lol), and to be honest I wouldn't be surprised at all. Then again, PVV members also are known for having a ''big fantasy'' . Like I said: very big if true.

The VVD is in trouble again. Rumour has it that Wybren van Haga (VVD MP who got in trouble because he broke some rental rules as landlord) isn't allowed to speak with the media and only gets sh**t committees. Van Haga seems to be pissed off because of it. And now a story has broken out that van Haga didn't completely sewer ties with his businesses, apparently there is some classic construction which allows him to be de facto in charge. Personally I think the whole situation surrounding van Haga is a witch hunt. Since van Haga was known as a independent-minded right-wing municipal council member in Haarlem they might be in trouble if he decides he's tired of it and leaves the party since that would cause them to lose their majority. Now, they're going to lose their majority in the senate in a few months anyway and they probably would have SGP support, but losing the majority still would be a bad sign. So van Haga has some room to f**k around I suppose.

[mvd10]

Ok, this escalated quickly. Willie Dille, the woman who claimed she was raped by Muslims who were sent after her by fellow council member Arnoud van Doorn, has committed suicide. Apparently Dille has spoken with both the police and mayor Pauline Krikke (The Hague, VVD) and they advised her to file a police report, but she didn't do it.

[DavidB.]

An incredibly sad story. I have to say that I was skeptical at first, but now it has been revealed that the mayor of The Hague, Pauline Krikke, knew about Dille's story, as did the police. Dille's video with subtitles can be viewed here. If this really happened, this country is sick.

[DC Al Fine]

An incredibly sad story. I have to say that I was skeptical at first, but now it has been revealed that the mayor of The Hague, Pauline Krikke, knew about Dille's story, as did the police. Dille's video with subtitles can be viewed here. If this really happened, this country is sick.

Honestly I'm surprised similar scandals (eg Rotherham) haven't caused mass riots. The police not doing their jobs because they're worried that arresting rapists might create anti-immigrant sentiment is a big effort into deal. It's outrageous.

[DavidB.]

An incredibly sad story. I have to say that I was skeptical at first, but now it has been revealed that the mayor of The Hague, Pauline Krikke, knew about Dille's story, as did the police. Dille's video with subtitles can be viewed here. If this really happened, this country is sick.

Honestly I'm surprised similar scandals (eg Rotherham) haven't caused mass riots. The police not doing their jobs because they're worried that arresting rapists might create anti-immigrant sentiment is a big effort into deal. It's outrageous.

The aspect of absurdity is important here, I think. These sorts of things are so incomprehensible that many people might literally be unable to allow the idea that they happen to enter their "system". People might not call into question the facts, but it's not the same.

These things mean that the state has completely failed its task to protect its citizens, which is the most fundamental task of the state. But for individuals, life goes on just like before, and cognitive dissonance is easy to sustain. People protesting the state of affairs will then be viewed as lunatics with too much time on their hands.

[mvd10]

There is even less support for eliminating the dividend tax. Apparently it will cost 2 billion euros now. Support has dropped to 15%. I'm pretty sure the dividend tax won't be eliminated in the end. By March 2019 the coalition probably will have lost its majority in the senate (even if you count SGP), so they'll have to work with some opposition parties and their first demand will be to reinstate the dividend tax. Personally I'm conflicted on it. I support the idea on paper, but in practice most of the tax cut will go to foreign governments (many international tax deals) instead of investors in Dutch corporations which makes it a rather inefficient tax cut.

D66 wants judges to be more ethnically diverse to make people feel better represented. Ironically judges are known for being rather big D66 supporters, which is why so many right-wing voters rail against the judges (their D66-image combined with low sentences in some high profile cases). D66 doesn't want a quota though.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl also polled to which extent people agree with the controversial remarks by Foreign Affairs Minister Stef Blok (VVD). It appears as if most right-wing voters agree with most of what he said. 47% agree with his statement that there is no successful, peaceful multicultural society in which the indigenous population is still there (91% of FVD voters in GE17, 89% of PVV voters, 63% of VVD voters, 53% of CDA voters). 75% agree that it will never be possible to come to an arrangement in which Eastern European countries take in refugees (this goes against the coalition agreement but wasn't the most controversial part - the controversial part was where he said that refugees would literally - sic - be beaten up on the streets in these countries within two weeks). 46% agree with Blok's statement that humans are genetically programmed not to be able to bond with alien people to us (74% FVD, 68% PVV, 63% VVD, 54% CDA). And 59% agree that multiculturalism is very troublesome if you live in a multicultural neighborhood and that it is easy to appreciate multiculturalism if you live in a white neighborhood (91% PVV, 90% FVD, 75% VVD, 72% CDA). I think the percentage of PvdA voters who agree with this statement shows insight in why the PvdA cannot go the Danish Social Democratic way: only 22% agree, compared to 23% of GL voters and 35% of D66 voters - the PvdA is a deeply middle-class party.

Only 34% agreed with Blok's comment that Suriname is a failed state due to ethnic divisions (72% PVV, 53% FVD, 45% VVD, 40% CDA).

49% think he was right to apologize, 45% say it was not necessary (VVD voters: 34/60). 29% say he should resign over these comments (D66 voters: 38/50), 64% say this would be unnecessary.

[mvd10]

Current PvdA voters are deeply middle-class, but I wonder what the results would have looked like with potential PvdA voters. But I agree that they'll never be able to go as far as the Danish social democrats. According to peil.nl's table 66% of PvdA 2012 voters voted for D66, GL, PvdA, DENK or PvdD. And I don't know how reliable peil.nl's demographic breakdowns are, but apparently PvdA slightly overperformed with educated voters even in 2012. According to peil.nl PvdA won 26% of high-educated voters and 21% of (self-described?) high income voters in 2012 while they won 19% and 15% of those groups in 1994. So I guess the PvdA has been deeply middle-class (moreso than the other European social democrats?) for a while.

[DavidB.]

Current PvdA voters are deeply middle-class, but I wonder what the results would have looked like with potential PvdA voters. But I agree that they'll never be able to go as far as the Danish social democrats. According to peil.nl's table 66% of PvdA 2012 voters voted for D66, GL, PvdA, DENK or PvdD. And I don't know how reliable peil.nl's demographic breakdowns are, but apparently PvdA slightly overperformed with educated voters even in 2012. According to peil.nl PvdA won 26% of high-educated voters and 21% of (self-described?) high income voters in 2012 while they won 19% and 15% of those groups in 1994. So I guess the PvdA has been deeply middle-class (moreso than the other European social democrats?) for a while.

Current PvdA voters might indeed be a tad more middle-class than their potential voter base, and I even think the Danish way could be a fruitful electoral strategy for the PvdA - but it will not happen, because the party membership and its core base is too middle-class and ideologically "internationalist" to accept this ever happening.

And as you already alluded to, the PvdA's voter base has been more middle-class than the voter base of the SPD, Danish Social Democrats, UK Labour, Swedish Social Democrats etc. for a long time.

The reason is that the PvdA has been just as popular with the middle-class demographics (public servants, teachers, etc.) and the "bobo" type of voter that these parties attract as its international counterparts, but that a bigger part of the Dutch working-class historically doesn't vote for the PvdA: a big chunk of the Catholic working class historically voted KVP and then went to the CDA. They might now vote PVV, SP, CDA or even VVD (or stay home), and even if they may consider the PvdA a potential option in their "set of choices", few of them vote for the PvdA on a consistent basis (the 2012 GE, in which voting was rather class-based by Dutch standards, is actually a good example of the exception to this rule).

Two results from this: 1) a Social Democratic party (and the left as a whole!) that is structurally weaker than in Germany, the UK, Sweden and Denmark; 2) a Social Democratic party that is structurally more reliant on middle-class voters (and a middle-class base) than its counterparts - which obviously affects its potential ideological course.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today:

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why is the CDA doing so badly?

[EPG]

"The little party always gets crushed!" - A. Merkel

[bigic]

Except that it's not always true. For example Socialist Party of Serbia hugely improved their result in 2012 after entering government in 2008 (after being in opposition since 2000) as a junior partner of centre-left Democratic Party, a coalition that was controversial because despite both parties claiming to be "social-democratic", Socialist Party of Serbia is the party of Milošević regime, while Democratic Party was one of the regime's greatest opponents.
Sorry for OT.

[windjammer]

Why is the CDA doing so badly?

It's something that always happens in a center-right coalition, the main center right party gains votes from the minor ones.

Additionnally, VVD fits the Netherlands much more than CDA. The Netherlands is the country of drugs after all, not of zealous christians.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Traditionally it's normally the D66 that has wild negative swings when they're in government. My understanding was that the CDA base are old and gradually dying off, but still loyal.

[Tintrlvr]

Traditionally it's normally the D66 that has wild negative swings when they're in government. My understanding was that the CDA base are old and gradually dying off, but still loyal.

On the other hand, I can see why the CDA's vote base might more vulnerable to attack from the "respectable" far-right like the FvD (especially when compared to the PVV) than the other government parties.

[mvd10]

Why is the CDA doing so badly?

Maybe it's a hot take, but I think the CDA has a much larger share of anti-establishment/disappointed voters than the other establishment parties (and CU's voter base is quite loyal for obvious reasons). Buma repeatedly criticized Rutte over the past 5 years and he didn't make any deals with Rutte 2, VVD and PvdA relied on D66, CU and SGP for that. Buma definitely tried to win ''left-wing conservatives'' (people estimate that 40% of voters is in the left-conservative quadrant on a PM-esque test). Both the VVD and the CDA ran a right-wing campaign when it came to cultural issues/immigration, but the VVD campaign still was rather optimistic while Buma ran a fairly pessimistic campaign, and he repeatedly blasted Rutte for ''only seeing the value of money and failing to adress the falling sense of community''. So I guess there are some voters who strongly disapprove of Rutte 2 but didn't quite want to vote FvD/PVV (and eventually ended up voting CDA).

VVD has become a broader party over the years, but the VVD still has a very strong base with wealthy voters in Randstad commuter towns, D66 strongly overperforms with well-educated voters and CU base is loyal (where else would they go lol?). But CDA performs relatively well across all educational and income groups, so a large amount of their voters might be relatively hostile to Rutte 3 compared to the generally more affluent and educated VVD and D66 voters.

Then again, D66 also is losing with left-leaning voters who don't like the corporate tax cuts or the repeal of the dividend tax. There seems to be a decent gap between D66 voters and the D66 leadership when it comes to economic issues. The ''marriage'' between wealthy centrist professionals and more left-leaning D66 voters worked when Pechtold was a charismatic leader who repositioned dying D66 as a staunchly anti-PVV party or when everyone acknowledged that the budget deficit had to be reduced, but I guess a lot of left-leaning D66 voters are disappointed that the current government is following the VVD line on corporate taxes. Though I might want to add that calculations showed that the policies in the coalition agreement wouldn't increase inequality .

Why is the CDA doing so badly?

It's something that always happens in a center-right coalition, the main center right party gains votes from the minor ones.

Additionnally, VVD fits the Netherlands much more than CDA. The Netherlands is the country of drugs after all, not of zealous christians.

CDA isn't really a party for zealous christians though, for that we have SGP and CU. Maybe the most conservative Catholics vote CDA, but that's it. CDA is rather silent on things like abortion (iirc they want to ban it at 22 weeks instead of 24 weeks lol), and the only hot button social issue is ''voltooid leven'' (an even more liberal euthanasia law), which also is opposed by the SP iirc. Buma's rather nationalist and communitarian campaign should have worked rather well on paper actually. But the VVD also ran a good campaign, things were going relatively well (so maybe Buma was too pessimistic) and Rutte got a late boost with the Turkey row.

Electoral geographer Josse de Voogd aptly worded the appeal of the VVD btw. The VVD generally gets the mood of the electorate when it comes to social issues and values: secular and socially liberal, but also conservative on cultural issues (but not in a PVV-way). The VVD might be a bit too ''neoliberal'' for the average voter, but they message it in a very appealing way (''roll up your sleeves and let's fix things'').

[mvd10]

Anyway, we only ever post peil.nl polls here since peil is the only pollster with weekly polls. Ipsos still had the CDA on 16 seats in their last poll a month ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Dutch_general_election

[mvd10]

VVD MP Han ten Broeke just resigned. Apparently he had a relationship with a political assistant in 2013. The woman claimed that the relationship was ''unequal'' since she was in her 20s while ten Broeke was a 44-year old MP. Last week ten Broeke also ran into trouble when HP de Tijd wrote an article about him not reporting some of his business activities.

In 2013 the case was resolved by ten Broeke and VVD fraction leader Halbe Zijlstra who apparently talked with the woman and they convinced her to refrain from reporting it to the police, but HP de Tijd found out anyway and he decided to resign before the sh**t hits the van.

Anyway, the rumour that ''something'' happened which meant ten Broeke would never become minister has been going for a while by now and I believe David even posted something about ten Broeke being caught with a fraction assistant, so for all of your scoops please continue visiting this thread .

[DavidB.]

Why is the CDA doing so badly?

It is mostly classic story of a junior coalition partner whose profile in the government is unclear. The dividend tax repeal is also much more resented by CDA voters than VVD voters. And then there is the fact that Rutte mainly ran on continuation and Buma on change - and this is mainly a government of continuation (as almost all governments in the Netherlands really are, given that we have never had a government without at least one party that was in the previous government - think about that!) I think Peil is overestimating FVD's gains and CDA/VVD's losses by a bit, but it boils down to this, I think.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl poll the same as last week.

32% want the coalition to win a majority in the Senate next year following the Provincial elections, 54% want the government to lose its one-seat majority. These numbers are 44/37 for CDA voters in GE17 and 43/42 for D66 voters - very damning. Only VVD voters overwhelmingly want the government to win a majority: 75/15.

As for Wilders' "draw Mohammed" cartoon contest which sparked outrage in the Muslim world and was subsequently cancelled: 65% think Wilders should not want to organize such a contest, 22% are disappointed he cancelled it, 76% think this was a good decision and 61% think organizing such a contest should be possible in the Netherlands.

Peil.nl also polled the popularity of all ministers. The most notable observation is that PM Rutte's popularity has declined by a lot: from 4th out of 16 ministers in October 2017 to 15th out of 16 at the moment. His personal involvement in the abolishment of the dividend tax is undoubtedly the reason for this.

[DavidB.]

Much ado about asylum policy as of late, since two Armenian children aged 13 and 12 who had been here for ten years were set to be deported to Yerevan. Their mother had already been deported. Their asylum bid had been rejected countless times, since Armenia is a safe country, but Dutch asylum legislation allows applicants to appeal countless times, with the consequence that children are sometimes deported after having lived in the Netherlands for most of their lives. There were many protests for the two children, but first it appeared as if this would not change anything. When the mother (who has pulled many tricks in the background) then made her children disappear on the night before their deportation (they went "into hiding") and the police asked for citizens to help find them (bad idea), Deputy Minister of Immigration Mark Harbers (VVD) decided to use his discretionary powers and make an exception for the two children. This also means their mother will be allowed to return, even though her asylum application was rejected something like eight times. Presumably CU and D66 exerted a lot of pressure on the VVD in order to have Harbers use his discretionary powers, as many members of these two pro-immigration parties cancelled their memberships over this incident. It painfully points at the fact that D66 and CU lost the immigration issue at the negotiating table.

The government parties don't trust each other at all, as D66, CDA and CU keep struggling with the expected abolishment of the dividend tax: for the former two parties, as many as 40% of their voters in 2017 say they doubt they can vote for them again if the dividend tax is actually abolished. As energy prices, healthcare expenses and the VAT will increase sharply next year, the scrapping of the dividend tax for Unilever and Shell seems an even more obscene measure - the optics are really bad.

Embarrassingly, because of this intra-government disagreement, the government agreed on the 2019 budget too late and missed the deadline to have everything calcultated by the Council of State. The Deputy Head of the Council, former minister Piet-Hein Donner (CDA), took the highly unusual step to summon the Deputy Minister of Finance Menno Snel (D66) to his office and have him explain why this happened. In order to maintain its independence and avoid being viewed as partisan, the Council of State can only be in contact with government officials through a special procedure ("Article 24"). This procedure is usually only invoked for about 1% of the budgetary clauses, but was invoked for much more of the budget this time.

I would not be surprised if the government collapsed over the dividend tax, either this year or next year.

Another scandal that has hurt D66 is the fact that Alexander Pechtold's former mistress, who just resigned as a D66 local councillor in Kampen, told the press that Pechtold had essentially forced her to undergo an abortion, treated her badly altogether and blackmailed her over things, threatening to destroy her reputation and her political career. Pechtold has had his fair number of scandals (the "penthouse" he received from a Canadian diplomat keeps sticking too) and D66 fear that this most recent scandal is going to hurt them in the Provincial elections in March. There is speculation about Pechtold resigning at the October party congress. The question is: who would replace him? Minister of the Interior Kajsa Ollongren was always seen as the most likely successor, but her reputation is very tainted after abolishing the referendum, which many D66 members do not like.

Then finally a poll not by Peil: EenVandaag have ditched their cooperation with GfK/De Stemming, which was the worst poll in the 2017 general election, and now have their polls conducted by Ipsos, the best pollster in 2017.

Ipsos/EenVandaag (September 4, numbers compared to GE):
VVD 32 (-1)
PVV 18 (-2)
CDA 17 (-2)
GroenLinks 16 (+2)
SP 14 (nc)
D66 13 (-6)
Forum voor Democratie 9 (+7)
PvdA 8 (-1)
PvdD 7 (+2)
ChristenUnie 6 (+1)
50Plus 5 (+1)
SGP 3 (nc)
DENK 2 (-1)

A very different picture than with Peil, which has CDA and VVD much lower and FVD (and DENK) much higher. Peil wasn't all that inaccurate in 2017 either, so I guess the truth is somewhere in between.

[DC Al Fine]

How are dividends taxed in the Netherlands currently and what is the proposed tax cut?

[DavidB.]

How are dividends taxed in the Netherlands currently and what is the proposed tax cut?

It is now 15% and the government plans to abolish it altogether (Rutte's personal project), even though this was in none of the parties' manifesto. The parties have severely underestimated the backlash this would cause: as it became clear Shell and Unilever were behind this and Rutte used the "we need to attract them after Brexit" argument, the companies themselves are mainly worried about the PR damage and have now said they will move to the Netherlands regardless of whether the dividend tax is abolished. There goes that line of defense for Rutte... It is still wholly unclear how this would benefit the Netherlands - one gets the impression that it doesn't. Meanwhile, it will cost 2 billion euros a year.