Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[windjammer]

Sorry, one more follow-up to the coalition question:

If there were enough seats, would a GL-D66-SP-PvdA-50+ coalition with PvdD and DENK support be possible? Would parties work with DENK, and would D66 leave the government for this type of deal?

I'm not sure but I believe that 50+ voters are quite rightwing so the idea of a coalition with Denk etc seems implausible to say the least.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

DENK, I think, is far too toxic for any party to support, even more so than the PVV. There are other big problems as well: they and SP hate hate hate each other because of the PKK issue and the PvdA resent them for stealing part of their base.

[DavidB.]

Speaking of PvdD, and I swear I saw someone mention at some point that they got quite a lot of a protest in the kinds of places you wouldn't necessarily expect. So, beyond the obvious kind of person who would vote for a party like them, who is voting PvdD as a protest option?

People who are less likely to be interested in politics and may feel either apathetic to or disgruntled with "The Hague", but to whom animal welfare is specific and important enough to take interest in, and who view the PvdD as "outsiders" by focusing on this specific issue. There are quite a lot of these people.

Sorry, one more follow-up to the coalition question:

If there were enough seats, would a GL-D66-SP-PvdA-50+ coalition with PvdD and DENK support be possible? Would parties work with DENK, and would D66 leave the government for this type of deal?

I don't think we're ever going to have a coalition without either VVD or CDA participating in it. The numbers just aren't there.

In any case, the above option would be too difficult even if it were numerically possible. I suspect GL could perhaps be open to working together with DENK in some way in the future, but this is going to take time, and it will probably have to occur on a local level first. DENK-SP (the SP hate DENK, DENK hate Sadet Karabulut) and DENK-PvdA (they both hate each other) cooperation would be even more difficult. D66-SP is also a difficult combination nationally, and D66 would definitely prefer the current government over a hotchpotch coalition like this. 50Plus' voters are quite similar to PVV voters in terms of attitudes on immigration and "culture wars", and the leadership knows it.

[DavidB.]

Fully enjoying the ride with VVD Foreign Ministers handpicked by Mark Rutte because they are loyalists. Zembla journalists found out that during a recent closed-off meeting, Minister of Foreign Affairs Stef Blok claimed that he does not know any multicultural society that is peaceful. "Give me an example of a multi-ethnic or multicultural society still inhabited by the native population (...) with a peaceful state of coexistence. I don't know one." People would be genetically predisposed "not to be able to bond with strangers", which is the reason why societies "reach their boundaries quickly" when it comes to taking in immigrants. He therefore calls himself "pragmatic when it comes to xenophobia."

Blok claims to understand native Dutch people in minority-majority neighborhoods in Amsterdam and The Hague and says that it is much easier to appreciate multiculturalism if you live in Benoordenhout, a highly affluent, 95%> white neighborhood in The Hague. He also called Suriname a "failed state" and blames it on multiculturalism, and he voiced his skepticism of EU refugee quota, as Eastern Europeans would never accept taking in immigrants: "Even if we twist their arms to their back and they say "yes", it will not happen. Take a walk on the streets of Warsaw or Prague, there are no colored people there. These people would leave within a week. They would probably literally be beaten up. They wouldn't have a life there."

As a consequence, a sh**tstorm has unleashed on Blok, with the parliamentary foreign policy spokesmen of government parties D66 and Blok's own VVD rushing to condemn his statements, together with pro-refugee organizations and the like.

[mvd10]

Time for Hans van Baalen







A true visionary. Courageous souls like Hans van Baalen will always come to save the nation in her darkest hours.

Sadly van Baalen isn't a Rutte loyalist. Heck, he probably got a kick upstairs to the European Parliament because he was too critical of Rutte (also the reason why this national treasure didn't get the cabinet job he deserves). It's still not too late Mark. Whenever the next VVD minister resigns you can bring Hans in. Picking a MEP with very close ties to Monsanto, the Ukrainian government and the car industry would piss off all the right people. Time to reap those leftist and right-wing populist tears .

Blok should have watched his tongue and he shouldn't have mentioned ethnicity or genetic stuff (or the Suriname being a failed state part, which is very undiplomatic) but I think there are a quite lot of people who agree with him. I wasn't really outraged about it when I read it, he probably has a point with most multicultural experiments failing. But he's Foreign Minister so he really can't say those things. Ironically Rutte picked Blok because Blok has the reputation of a cautious man who doesn't make stupid gaffes. Lol. What Blok said about migrants in Eastern Europe is especially awkward because spreading refugees more equally over all of Europe (instead of the Northern countries where they want to go) is cabinet policy.

[njwes]

Apart from the bits you pointed out, he's not wrong. (Well, can't speak to the condition of Suriname's society, but that part didn't do him any favors.

I'd imagine that his sentiments are widely held among the public, even if some are afraid to admit it--in which case I imagine this might push a few people closer to FvD

[mvd10]

I looked it up and ironically Benoordenhout (the affluent place in The Hague Blok mentioned) overwhelmingly voted VVD. The one precinct in the area voted 48% VVD (21% is the national average). The Hague is more right-wing than Amsterdam or Utrecht though, VVD and D66 were tied in the wealthier areas there.

Apart from the bits you pointed out, he's not wrong. (Well, can't speak to the condition of Suriname's society, but that part didn't do him any favors.

I'd imagine that his sentiments are widely held among the public, even if some are afraid to admit it--in which case I imagine this might push a few people closer to FvD

Blok is a VVD politician. Or do you mean this will spark another national debate which would benefit FvD? I do agree that similar sentiments are probably held by a sizable amount of the public, including a lot of voters the VVD needs to win because you can't win by just racking up the margin in Aerdenhout and other wealthy Randstad commuter towns lol (and even those voters are surprisingly right-wing on identity issues). Twitter reactions are overwhelmingly negative, but Dutch Twitter is a notoriously left-wing echo chamber (with a few far-right trolls too) where anything remotely associated with the VVD is loathed. But I hope they'll poll it. Maurice de Hond, we need you more than ever!

But the main problem with what Blok said is that's it's completely undiplomatic, rather brash (probably not something you want in your Foreign Affairs Minister) and seems to contradict coalition policy.

In 2004 Stef Blok actually chaired a parliamentary commission that concluded Dutch immigration/integration policy over the past 30 was largely successful. Lol.

[DavidB.]

Blok was mostly right imo (except for the Suriname comments, as calling it a failed state seems overly harsh), and most VVD voters probably don't mind. From an electoral perspective this isn't going to harm the VVD, but the remarks on Suriname are damaging to the Dutch-Surinamese relationship, which is already quite rocky: we currently do not have an ambassador in Suriname, as the Dutch government's pick was rejected.

Blok assuming that such comments behind closed doors remain private seems awfully naive. On the upside, to me it is encouraging that VVD politicians who actually hold power make such comments behind close doors: this was not "PVV statute labour" but a politician speaking his mind. It seems as if many VVD politicians have slowly come around and now basically don't disagree all that much with a party like FVD on immigration anymore: it is the EU, direct democracy, the "conspiratorial" vibe, and geopolitical issues (Russia) where they find FVD to be most objectionable.

[Beezer]

[windjammer]

Dear god,
This is ridiculous

[mvd10]

Well, Baudet did write a book about a gigolo once.

Obvious tactical mistake by Baudet though. In the eyes of the Baudetjugend only women can be seen as sexual lust objects. Baudet's downfall is now imminent .

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

In Poland even for the left-wing politician it would be seen as not appropriate.

[mvd10]

In Poland even for the left-wing politician it would be seen as not appropriate.

This is the Netherlands though. I doubt many people outside of the Bible Belt will care. And even if they care it probably won't change their likelihood to vote FvD anyway. Thierry Baudet was open about inhaling lavender and being so infatuated with a woman that he stopped masturbating (true story) and nobody cared.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Thierry Baudet was open about inhaling lavender and being so infatuated with a woman that he stopped masturbating (true story) and nobody cared.

what

[Beezer]

Well, #NoFap is pretty popular on the right...

[mvd10]

Thierry Baudet was open about inhaling lavender and being so infatuated with a woman that he stopped masturbating (true story) and nobody cared.

what

Yes, the saviour of the Dutch nation state and Western Judeo-Christian culture.

David has been conspicuously absent. I suppose he's having the time of his life somewhere right now.

[mvd10]

The photo we deserve, not the one we need

[DavidB.]

In the eyes of the Baudetjugend only women can be seen as sexual lust objects.

I beg to differ...

David has been conspicuously absent. I suppose he's having the time of his life somewhere right now.

Hahaha, the time of my life writing a long-ass paper while my room is as hot as Ayelet Shaked, sure. Baudet is not my type

what

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ORJiFt6LC0

[mvd10]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu6sxy_dgWM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJNooZwsxj0

More goldmines

Anyway, majorities of voters disapprove of Blok's comments on Suriname (60%) and multicultural societies (55%). Even most VVD voters seem to disapprove of Blok. Still, the VVD doesn't lose any votes because of it. The VVD is a teflon party, the last time the VVD lost a serious amounts of votes was when VVD voters had to pay more health insurance contributions (they wanted to means-test premiums, the plan was quickly scrapped).

Jozias van Aartsen (ex-VVD leader, former interim Amsterdam mayor) is rather worried about the VVD. He says the VVD is too populist and too negative about religious Muslims (he's talking about Salafi Muslims). Sure Jozias, being #woke worked so well for us in the early and mid 2000s . During his term as mayor van Aartsen also was heavily criticized for being too soft on illegal refugees who were squatting several buildings in Amsterdam. I think the national VVD is very happy that he's gone now tbh. Van Aartsen is a known moderate/social liberal, but ironically he also tried to keep Wilders in the VVD when Wilders was a rebellious VVD MP. It's clear that people like van Aartsen have lost any remaining influence they had in the VVD, Rutte 'converted' and the people who are waiting to take over also are quite right-wing.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu6sxy_dgWM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJNooZwsxj0

What a douchebag.

[DavidB.]

Jozias van Aartsen (ex-VVD leader, former interim Amsterdam mayor) is rather worried about the VVD. He says the VVD is too populist and too negative about religious Muslims (he's talking about Salafi Muslims). Sure Jozias, being #woke worked so well for us in the early and mid 2000s . During his term as mayor van Aartsen also was heavily criticized for being too soft on illegal refugees who were squatting several buildings in Amsterdam. I think the national VVD is very happy that he's gone now tbh. Van Aartsen is a known moderate/social liberal, but ironically he also tried to keep Wilders in the VVD when Wilders was a rebellious VVD MP. It's clear that people like van Aartsen have lost any remaining influence they had in the VVD, Rutte 'converted' and the people who are waiting to take over also are quite right-wing.

Van Aartsen was also the mayor of The Hague who said that "no lines were crossed" when protesters in The Hague chanted "death to the Jews" and waved their ISIS/Hezbollah flags in the summer of 2014. So tolerant.

Anyway, majorities of voters disapprove of Blok's comments on Suriname (60%) and multicultural societies (55%). Even most VVD voters seem to disapprove of Blok.

So 45% of the Dutch agree that there isn't a single successful multicultural country (pretty extreme statement) and 40% think Suriname is a failed state (which seems a ludicrous comment even to me). Don't understand the general media spin as if this is supposedly something positive for the left.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

The photo we deserve, not the one we need

I was thinking what would be reaction of Polish people on the same picture but made by Korwin and then someone in the Internet remind me about that photo where Korwin is sleeping on table while visiting Russia:

[mvd10]

It's komkommertijd ('cucumber time') in the Netherlands, so nothing really is happening. Some parties are preparing for the European elections though. Rumour has it that Malik Azmani will become the VVD lead candidate for the European Parliament. Azmani is known as a hard-liner on immigration/integration, I like him. D66 will organize a leadership election. Prominent MEP and D66 delegation leader Sophie in 't Veld will run again, but she will be challenged my MEP Marietje Schaake and Pechtold's speechwriter Felix Klos.

I don't know anything about the internal workings of D66, but Sophie in 't Veld is a prominent MEP and the current delegation leader, so I guess she should be the favourite to win because of her status in the European Parliament. She tried to recruit M5S for ALDE (wtf) but luckily enough she failed. I believe she's quite critical of the influence American tech giants have in Europe. She's also very pro-EU(duh, D66) and has tried the 'Goldman Sachs and Google don't need the EU, but we normal citizens do'-shtick.

Felix Klos is Pechtold's speechwriter, he also campaigned for both Hillary and Bernie in the US. He predicted Trump would lose in a landslide tho. Klos will be running on a very pro-European platform. I'm not sure whether he stands a chance though (not even sure whether he will get enough signatures to run). I think he does have a bright future in D66 though.

I don't know much about Marietje Schaake other than that she's been a MEP for 10 years.

MEP Esther de Lange probably will be the CDA lead candidate again. The CDA's EU position is rather weird, they used to be extremely pro-EU but under Buma they became more sceptical (or 'nativist') as evidenced by them voting against the EU-Ukraine association agreement because the majority of voters rejected it. But the senate fraction largely voted for the association agreement (remnants of the old 1970s/80s/90s CDA). Out of the mainstream establishment parties CDA has the biggest share of voters who don't feel represented by the elites (not strange since CDA voters are older and mainly rural). It remains to be seen whether CDA's more Eurosceptical course will remain or whether it was a ploy by Buma to win disaffected right-wing VVD voters. Or maybe the CDA will go for the Rutte way in the future: Eurosceptical at home, pro-EU in Brussels .

MEP Paul Tang (who was mentioned as a possible left-wing candidate for the PvdA leadership 2 years ago) probably will be PvdA lead candidate again.

[DavidB.]

The CDA in the EP seem to be more inclined to do what the EPP want than to do what the national CDA want. I have to give the VVD some credit here: they don't just go along with anything ALDE want, as they sometimes rebel and are pretty consistent in what they advocate in The Hague and in Brussels (the "Euroskeptical at home, pro-EU in Brussels" thing is more of a Rutte issue than a VVD MEPs issue imo). By contrast, the CDA's MEPs will blatantly go against the party line in the Netherlands. Their MEPs voted for recognizing Palestinian statehood, for example, despite the HQ opposing it. The reason is that the "old guard" (leftier than the national leadership) is overrepresented among MEPs. I also think the MEP delegation of the CDA has been disproportionately Southern/Catholic for a long time.

Anyhow, I don't expect any changes in the CDA MEPs' pro-EPP, pro-Eurofederalist voting patterns.

[mvd10]

You're probably right about the CDA. The EU-Ukraine association agreement passed the senate because the senate is filled with the old guard. I did not know that CDA MEP's voted for Palestinian statehood though. I'm sure Buma wasn't thrilled about that. Internally there is some opposition to Buma's course but it's probably just the dying old guard. I'm sure the prominent CDA members who were staunchly opposed to working with the PVV in 2010 aren't exactly happy with Buma. Still, Buma's course probably is the right way for the CDA since they have to find a new niche position, and their voters clearly feel more disaffected by the current 'elites' than VVD/PvdA voters.

VVD and ALDE has always been a dubious marriage, the VVD is to the right of ALDE on basically everything. Still, there is no other serious option and there are some other right-wing liberal parties in ALDE too so they'll stay there. But I'm sure that the VVD will continue deviating from ALDE from time to time.