Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam and some student cities are still left as biggest resources for the for side

[DavidB.]

Rotterdam:
Leefbaar 11 (-3)
VVD 5 (+2)
PvdA 5 (-3)
D66 5 (-1)
GL 5 (+3)
DENK 3 (+3)
NIDA 2 (nc)
SP 2 (-3)
CDA 2 (-1)
PVV 2 (+2)
PvdD 1 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)
CU-SGP 1 (nc)

Leefbaar-VVD-CDA-D66 have a majority: 23 seats. The former Left Alliance are at 14. Together with D66 they reach 19, but from there it would become damn difficult. Muslim parties got well over 10% of the vote. The loss of the SP feels especially good to me. Leo de Kleijn is really an a**hole and deserved to lose for going full intersectionalist and continuing to embrace NIDA instead of following Lilian Marijnissen's more "workerite" way. Working-class voters were right to reject the SP Rotterdam.

[DavidB.]

In Amsterdam, GL-D66-PvdA have a majority; I'd be really surprise if they would not form a coalition.

[SunSt0rm]

Against is probably going to win. I dont see how for can overcome Amsterdam and the student cities with the vote left

[DavidB.]

Against is probably going to win. I dont see how for can overcome Amsterdam and the student cities with the vote left

The map is really interesting, with the opposing coalition formed of highly educated young people and minorities on the one hand and voters for non/anti-establishment parties and random Northerners on the other hand. The "against" vote is slightly stronger in the Frisian regions with less of a socialist tradition, which is also interesting.

I think the areas most supportive of the law correlate quite well with the areas where the combined score of VVD-CDA-D66-CU was strongest while D66 did badly, which makes a lot of sense, but in a weird way. And then there's the Bible Belt, of course.

[SunSt0rm]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north, south east of Limburg and possible betuwe voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

It looks similar like this so far
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/74/Tweede_Kamerverkiezingen_2003.png/800px-Tweede_Kamerverkiezingen_2003.png

[DavidB.]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

[SunSt0rm]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

Those are just lib dems places or Labour places like the GE2017 in the UK

[DavidB.]

Haha, yeah, agreed

Leiden:
D66 9 (-3)
GL 8 (+4)
VVD 6 (+1)
PvdA 4 (-1)
CDA 3 (-1)
SP 3 (-2)
Sleutelstad Party 2 (+2)
CU 1 (nc)
Leefbaar 0 (did not run; -2)
PvdD 0 (-1)

58.5%-36.4% against in the referendum.

Leiden had a D66-VVD-SP-CDA government. Painful losses for D66 and the SP. Like in Amsterdam, GL-D66-PvdA is an option here; but because of the fact that D66 are in the driver's seat here, D66-GL-VVD would also be possible. Interesting that the PvdD lost their seat.

Meanwile, Baudet is calling into question the Amsterdam result. Really disappointing behavior.

[SunSt0rm]

Expected end result 46.5-49.5-4

I am going to sleep

[DavidB.]

Goodnight!

[DavidB.]

Two random funny things:
- In Amsterdam, Sylvana Simons/BIJ1 seem to have missed out on a seat. LOL!
- In Brunssum, controversial, insane and probably corrupt Jo Palmen won the election again and even gained a seat.

The big patterns of the evening are as follows:
- Again gains for local parties
- More fragmentation on the local councils; more parties necessary for coalitions
- Losses of the traditional left to one-issue parties (elderly parties, Muslim parties, PvdD) and local parties; Christian parties and VVD not really affected by this trend
- Increasing polarization by participation fringe parties DENK, PVV, FvD, and/or small Muslim parties; DENK and PVV also outside Randstad metro

[mvd10]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

Isn't Haren quite left-wing? Normally these wealthy but progressive-leaning places have an overperforming VVD which compensates for the other right-wing parties underperforming, but the VVD only performs slightly better than nationwide in Haren. I believe it's literally the only municipality out of the 20/30 wealthiest municipalities to vote PvdA in 2012. Then again, I imagine leftists in Haren aren't very workerist .

The map indeed seems to be a combination of young people in university cities and people who lost confidence in the system (and used to vote PvdA in the past) which gives you an old PvdA victory map.

As for a Dutch Labour-Tory map: I imagine 2012 VVD vs PvdA would be 2015, as VVD-PvdA probably is a very class-based classical left-right battle. This referendum could be 2017, when Labour won wealthier places because either Brexit or supercharged turnout from less fortunate people. And young people probably voted hard against the referendum while they voted for Labour in the UK. GOP-Dem would just be right-wing parties vs left-wing parties (that would count PVV, CU and FvD as part of the right and D66 as part of the left). Some wealthier suburbs that voted VVD would be closer or even swing to the left because other right-wing parties barely win votes (Dutch Connecticut ) while parts of Groningen (or Limburg) where the VVD isn't popular but CDA and PVV are would go for the right.

CDA probably still is the biggest national party, but the VVD did win some votes. It's disappointing that we didn't manage to win the local elections for the first time ever, but it's not a terrible result.

[jeron]

Rotterdam:
Leefbaar 11 (-3)
VVD 5 (+2)
PvdA 5 (-3)
D66 5 (-1)
GL 5 (+3)
DENK 3 (+3)
NIDA 2 (nc)
SP 2 (-3)
CDA 2 (-1)
PVV 2 (+2)
PvdD 1 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)
CU-SGP 1 (nc)

Leefbaar-VVD-CDA-D66 have a majority: 23 seats. The former Left Alliance are at 14. Together with D66 they reach 19, but from there it would become damn difficult. Muslim parties got well over 10% of the vote. The loss of the SP feels especially good to me. Leo de Kleijn is really an a**hole and deserved to lose for going full intersectionalist and continuing to embrace NIDA instead of following Lilian Marijnissen's more "workerite" way. Working-class voters were right to reject the SP Rotterdam.

I don’t see a possibility for a majority coalition with this result. Coalition talks will be difficult

[windjammer]

So there will not be any other referendum anymore?

[Zinneke]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

Isn't Haren quite left-wing? Normally these wealthy but progressive-leaning places have an overperforming VVD which compensates for the other right-wing parties underperforming, but the VVD only performs slightly better than nationwide in Haren. I believe it's literally the only municipality out of the 20/30 wealthiest municipalities to vote PvdA in 2012. Then again, I imagine leftists in Haren aren't very workerist .

The map indeed seems to be a combination of young people in university cities and people who lost confidence in the system (and used to vote PvdA in the past) which gives you an old PvdA victory map.

As for a Dutch Labour-Tory map: I imagine 2012 VVD vs PvdA would be 2015, as VVD-PvdA probably is a very class-based classical left-right battle. This referendum could be 2017, when Labour won wealthier places because either Brexit or supercharged turnout from less fortunate people. And young people probably voted hard against the referendum while they voted for Labour in the UK. GOP-Dem would just be right-wing parties vs left-wing parties (that would count PVV, CU and FvD as part of the right and D66 as part of the left). Some wealthier suburbs that voted VVD would be closer or even swing to the left because other right-wing parties barely win votes (Dutch Connecticut ) while parts of Groningen (or Limburg) where the VVD isn't popular but CDA and PVV are would go for the right.

CDA probably still is the biggest national party, but the VVD did win some votes. It's disappointing that we didn't manage to win the local elections for the first time ever, but it's not a terrible result.

Wouldn't beat yourself up about it. In the same way this election's issues suited GL, it didn't suit Rutte's style nor the VVD's program. I imagine turnout has an impact too. GL benefited from the "national" local debates being about housing in big cities for yuppies civil servants and students, pollution, and Lelystad airport, not to mention the Groningen gas fields and the Belgian nuclear plants being somewhat strong grassroots issues on either side of the country. I don't think GL have really evolved nationally from where they were a year ago, although now that the media are painting Klaver as the winner and the main progressive opposition other voters might follow.

VVD might be worried about the CDA picking off certain parts of their vote now, but the national issues and Rutte's personal popularity is enough for me to think they will perform in provincials too.

I think everybody kind of expected what was going to happen to D66 in the inner cities.

[petr sokol]

Which is the third Muslim party?

Really happy with this result. De Mos and the VVD should now form a government, perhaps with CDA and D66. Absolutely brutal for the PVV. Shows that PVV voters do notice when the party performs well: only a small loss in Almere (from 9 to 7 seats is not great, but respectable), where they are generally doing a good job at representing voters, and huge losses in The Hague, where they are absolutely useless and an embarrassment. Apart from this, 15 parties is really a lot... and 3 Muslim parties with 1 seat each, lol.

[DavidB.]

Which is the third Muslim party?

Really happy with this result. De Mos and the VVD should now form a government, perhaps with CDA and D66. Absolutely brutal for the PVV. Shows that PVV voters do notice when the party performs well: only a small loss in Almere (from 9 to 7 seats is not great, but respectable), where they are generally doing a good job at representing voters, and huge losses in The Hague, where they are absolutely useless and an embarrassment. Apart from this, 15 parties is really a lot... and 3 Muslim parties with 1 seat each, lol.

NIDA, PvdE and Islam Democrats

[_]

Great job on the Netherlands

[DavidB.]

An exit poll by a municipal institute for statistics in Amsterdam shows that turnout among voters with a Turkish background rose from 37% to 47%, essentially the same as turnout in general. The shocker is that a whopping 74% of this group voted for DENK. In 2014, 48% had voted for the PvdA; this time, only 4% did so.

[DC Al Fine]

Which is the third Muslim party?

Really happy with this result. De Mos and the VVD should now form a government, perhaps with CDA and D66. Absolutely brutal for the PVV. Shows that PVV voters do notice when the party performs well: only a small loss in Almere (from 9 to 7 seats is not great, but respectable), where they are generally doing a good job at representing voters, and huge losses in The Hague, where they are absolutely useless and an embarrassment. Apart from this, 15 parties is really a lot... and 3 Muslim parties with 1 seat each, lol.

NIDA, PvdE and Islam Democrats

Lol, Muslims are trying to be the new orthodox Calvinists...

What's the difference between the three parties?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Cracking up that PvdD almost beat SP in Amsterdam.

[DavidB.]

Cracking up that PvdD almost beat SP in Amsterdam.

They did beat the PVV in The Hague (and the SP too). Also funny.

Lol, Muslims are trying to be the new orthodox Calvinists...

What's the difference between the three parties?

PvdE are really full Salafi, "used to be" pro-ISIS etc. NIDA have the most coherent view on society as a whole and are "inspired" by Islam; in Rotterdam they have sought to cooperate with SP, PvdA and GL in a "Left Alliance", but of course the pet issues (covert but clear Erdogan support, anti-Israel) cannot be forgotten either. Not really sure about the Islam Democrats, but they are probably less radical than the PvdE while more explicitly Islamic in voicing their views than NIDA. Though I guess many people simply base their vote on endorsements in the mosque or from neighbors who know candidate 8 on list X is a good guy -- just like a lot of non-Muslim voters do, of course, but I think this phenomenon might be even more relevant within Muslim communities.

Also worth noting that Muslim voters most likely bailed us out in the referendum and made the difference. No data on this yet, but I heard the "against" margins were massive in areas like the Schilderswijk (50%> Muslim) in The Hague, and it's not difficult to understand why that would be the case regarding this law: neighborhoods like these would be target number one for mass surveillance.

[mvd10]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

Isn't Haren quite left-wing? Normally these wealthy but progressive-leaning places have an overperforming VVD which compensates for the other right-wing parties underperforming, but the VVD only performs slightly better than nationwide in Haren. I believe it's literally the only municipality out of the 20/30 wealthiest municipalities to vote PvdA in 2012. Then again, I imagine leftists in Haren aren't very workerist .

The map indeed seems to be a combination of young people in university cities and people who lost confidence in the system (and used to vote PvdA in the past) which gives you an old PvdA victory map.

As for a Dutch Labour-Tory map: I imagine 2012 VVD vs PvdA would be 2015, as VVD-PvdA probably is a very class-based classical left-right battle. This referendum could be 2017, when Labour won wealthier places because either Brexit or supercharged turnout from less fortunate people. And young people probably voted hard against the referendum while they voted for Labour in the UK. GOP-Dem would just be right-wing parties vs left-wing parties (that would count PVV, CU and FvD as part of the right and D66 as part of the left). Some wealthier suburbs that voted VVD would be closer or even swing to the left because other right-wing parties barely win votes (Dutch Connecticut ) while parts of Groningen (or Limburg) where the VVD isn't popular but CDA and PVV are would go for the right.

CDA probably still is the biggest national party, but the VVD did win some votes. It's disappointing that we didn't manage to win the local elections for the first time ever, but it's not a terrible result.

Wouldn't beat yourself up about it. In the same way this election's issues suited GL, it didn't suit Rutte's style nor the VVD's program. I imagine turnout has an impact too. GL benefited from the "national" local debates being about housing in big cities for yuppies civil servants and students, pollution, and Lelystad airport, not to mention the Groningen gas fields and the Belgian nuclear plants being somewhat strong grassroots issues on either side of the country. I don't think GL have really evolved nationally from where they were a year ago, although now that the media are painting Klaver as the winner and the main progressive opposition other voters might follow.

VVD might be worried about the CDA picking off certain parts of their vote now, but the national issues and Rutte's personal popularity is enough for me to think they will perform in provincials too.

I think everybody kind of expected what was going to happen to D66 in the inner cities.

The results are somewhat misleading. CDA participated in more municipalities than the VVD. And I presume people who voted for local parties vote slightly different from the general public. Local parties are very weak in Amsterdam and Utrecht (2 GL strongholds). Local parties are strongest in the south because the KVP (which completely dominated the Catholic vote before depillarisation) used to let local politicians decide on local issues, and southern voters may not like the Hague-centric national parties. Social cohesion through things like Carnaval still exists in the south, so they are much more likely to vote for someone they know personally from for example the carnaval association.

In national elections without local parties and where all parties participate in all municipalities the VVD definitely would have won, otherwise the polls would be off by a lot.

GL profited from the big issues in Amsterdam, but they also managed to make the climate a big issue in the campaign which really helped them. Indeed they were less hurt by local parties participating, but outperforming their general election results in municipal elections still is a great result for them. I think it'd be interesting to look where exactly they won votes. Did they just double down on the kind of people who were already (close to) supporting GL or did Klaver manage to broaden their base to less cosmopolitan voters (which he wanted)?

And D66 always was going to lose. I believe they were leading the national polls by quite a lot 4 years ago, so they were going to lose anyway.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So who are the biggest winners and losers generally so far?