Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era  (Read 133903 times)
freek
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« Reply #775 on: November 24, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »

So to those angry at the purges as of late in the SP, where would those voters go?
Only option I can imagine is BIJ1, it participated in the 2017 elections as "Artikel 1". It is not communist though, it is a 'Black Lives Matter', pro-LGBTQIA+-rights, pro-intersectional feminism party.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #776 on: November 25, 2020, 04:44:42 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 04:54:53 AM by Zinneke »

Cas Mudde on the FvD implosion :

https://www.sv.uio.no/c-rex/english/news-and-events/right-now/2020/from-wilders-to-baudet-and-back-to-wilders-again.html

Quote
What Changed?

Why was this one scandal too far? Accusations of antisemitism and racism have followed Baudet, and several of his now challengers (like Senator Annabel Nanninga), for years. He has warned against the “homeopathic thinning” of the Dutch people and has used the (Nazi) term “Boreal world”. And he has met with Jean-Marie Le Pen in Paris in 2009 and with notorious American racist Jared Taylor in Amsterdam in 2017. In other words, this was far from the worst scandal for the party and for Baudet himself.

What has changed is that the Dutch media has lost its fascination with Baudet. Bored by the one-dimensionality of far-right mainstay Geert Wilders, one of the few Dutch political leaders without a university degree, the Dutch media was enamored by the attractive, eccentric, and self-confident Baudet. Moreover, expressing a deep-seated classism, they trivialized his racist and sexist statements as “provocations” of a “frat boy” – after all, how could some like “us”, a university-educated white man, be a racist? But with time it became increasingly difficult to deny the racism and sexism, while Baudet became more and more hostile towards the media.

In many ways, Baudet is just a rehash of Pim Fortuyn, the right-wing populist trailblazer that started the mainstreaming and normalization of far-right opinions and parties in the Netherlands. Like Baudet, Fortuyn was eccentric and university-educated, “our kind of people”, which helped him overcome accusations of racism in the broader establishment and media. Fortuyn was tragically assassinated shortly before the 2002 election, which made him the Jimmie Hendrix of Dutch politics; i.e. he died at his prime. Undoubtedly, had Fortuyn lived to lead his List Pim Fortuyn, LPF, his personality would have caused a party implosion too.

I would disagree with Mudde though here. What changed was the demographic was directly targeted  on any accusation targeted, and that even though JFVD had links with Erkenband they had plausible deniability. Here they were caught red handed, a lot like how in Flanders the Schild & Vrienden movement was. The contrast in reactions is damning though : De Wever kicked out S&V immediately but was politically punished for it. Here it remains to be seen but the general reaction is : "what a load of neo-nazi tossers" and the party is in dissaray.

What's more, I pointed out the structural issues with the Dutch far right before. One is that very particular brand of political entrepreneurs inspired by Fortuyn that seek to pretend to build an organic political movement but end up running it like a court. Wilders was smart enough though to not even bother with the whole movement thing. 2 members : himself and his organization. That's the only way the Dutch far right can work. It helps that Wilders, although unhinged in some aspects, can work the Hague circuit well.

Its true that Baudet had become a bit stale, and that his resignation is, as some are speculating, a way to refresh his credentials as the rude frat boy kicked out of his party again.  I don't think its the main reason for his departure.
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freek
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« Reply #777 on: November 25, 2020, 08:06:48 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 09:07:12 AM by freek »

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #778 on: November 25, 2020, 08:57:56 AM »


W E W
E
W
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PSOL
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« Reply #779 on: November 25, 2020, 11:15:50 AM »


W E W
E
W
Could you help those who can’t speak Dutch pls, thx.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #780 on: November 25, 2020, 12:38:25 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 12:49:32 PM by Zinneke »


W E W
E
W
Could you help those who can’t speak Dutch pls, thx.

google translate does the job but the main significance is Wilders actually commenting on a competitor, and his condescending tone yet blatant attempt to attract certain FvD types. He could have stuck the knife in further and signalled his disgust at antisemitism (which is one of his strongest "yeah but" arguments when accused of being a neo-fascist), but here he is actively taking the side of Baudet, most likely for electoral purposes.
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jeron
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« Reply #781 on: November 25, 2020, 01:16:05 PM »

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.

Baudet doesn’t have the right to organise a leadership election or a party conference as hé is not part of the executive committee anymore. The problem is that Baudet can send emails to the members and has the passwords for the social media accounts and uses those accounts. A split in the party seems inevitable now. Either FvD with Baudet reinstated as its leader, but that probably means that half of the senators would leave.
Or FVD without Baudet, but that probably means Baudet starts a new party.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #782 on: November 25, 2020, 07:43:13 PM »

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.

So who is in the party leadership of the FVD exactly?
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jeron
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« Reply #783 on: November 26, 2020, 06:01:06 PM »

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.

So who is in the party leadership of the FVD exactly?

A senator is still part of it and a member of the European Parliament as well. The secretary stood down today after some kind of deal with Baudet was struck. There will be a referendum among the party members about the leadership of the party and in turn Baudet will renounce on any official position within the party for the time being. This caused considerable backlash within the party though, because some feel that Baudet should be thrown out of the party altogether. Two senators, the council members in Amsterdam and about ten provincial council members left the party. The number 3, 4 and 5 of the list for the upcoming elections also left the party. Senator Nicki Pouw accused Baudet of making antisemitic and racist remarks during a meeting last Friday. Baudet of course denied this, but her statements were backed up by others.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #784 on: December 10, 2020, 09:28:43 AM »

Baudet stays on as FVD leader btw.
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jeron
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« Reply #785 on: December 10, 2020, 12:56:50 PM »


He does after an internal referendum. It is unclear what is left of the party though. Only 2 of the original 12 senators are still party members. The FVD members of the European parliament left the party. In the latest polls FVD is down to 3 or 4 seats. Joost Eerdmans, who was number four on its election list, and Annabel Nanninga, FVD leader in Amsterdam, announced their intention to form their own party. It is getting crowded to the right of VVD.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #786 on: December 11, 2020, 02:41:04 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2020, 10:09:42 AM by Zinneke »

Hugo de Jonge withdraws as CDA Lijstrekker to focus on Corona policy. Likely due to the burnout experience of his predecessor. New elections expected at CDA then. Omzigt must be favorite.
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freek
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« Reply #787 on: December 11, 2020, 12:04:12 PM »

Hugo de Jonghe withdraws as CDA Lijstrekker to focus on Corona policy. Likely due to the burnout experience of his predecessor. New elections expected at CDA then. Omzigt must be favorite.
That De Jonge has to focus on the corona policy caused internal unrest in the party as well. It was perceived that De Jonge was unable to give enough attention to his party leadership, and the polls were not great either.

Current favourite is finance minister Wopke Hoekstra. Last summer he declined to take part in the leadership election, but he is seen as the only one who would be able to take on Mark Rutte and the VVD. But it depends on Pieter Omtzigt, it is unclear if he would support Hoekstra. The party hopes for some kind of a dual candidacy. Hoekstra as PM candidate, Omtzigt as leader in parliament.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #788 on: December 12, 2020, 10:11:08 AM »

Hoekstra has become the campaign leader.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #789 on: December 13, 2020, 06:05:54 PM »

Been noticed a lot on Dutch political twitter how the Den Haag circuit seem to have adopted Hoekstra as a darling much quicker than De Jonge, and that this has some undertones of a classism that goes relatively unnoticed in the Netherlands. Hoekstra is of a more traditional elite background (well very elite background - Leiden law faculty that seems hell bent in running the country, then McKinsey, and ever present Shell), De Jonge went to a technical school. This is ending up looking like a party stitch up from the powers that be to close observers but low info voters might see Hoekstra as a strong challenger to Rutte as to who can live up to the Dutch tight-fisted stereotype (no cents more to the pensionado countries, etc..)


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Zinneke
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« Reply #790 on: January 04, 2021, 08:23:38 AM »

New topic for the election or can a mod change the thread title?

Anyway 89 parties have registered their names to be on the ballot. They have to submit lists and other official documents.

FvD's breakaway is called JA21 (Yes21)

The full list of the new parties :

Lijst Henk Krol
OPRECHT
Directe Democratie Partij
HET NIEUWE GELUID (HNG)
Idr1
Algemene Politieke Partij Nederland
Partij voor Ontwikkeling
Splinter
NIDA
Liberaal Nederland
JA21
Partij Zonder Naam
het Zetel Genootschap
Wij zijn Nederland
KINDPARTIJ
Blije Burgers
Volksbesluit
INL
Politieke Partij Nexus
Samen Sterk (USM)
EVERT!
Partij van de Eenheid
Partij voor de Kinderbelangen
Partij voor de Republiek
Nuchter Nederland
De Jongeren Partij


I'll do a rundown of those on the ballot when it is confirmed.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #791 on: January 05, 2021, 03:13:29 AM »

By the way, the Netherlands is the last country in the EU to be starting vaccinations and its fair to say the government is taking quite a bit of heat because of it. The Tweede Kamer has been recalled and there is going to be a lot of grandstanding by the opposition as to why this fiasco happened (especially when you consider NL's reputation).

Hugo De Jonghe admitted they could have vaccinated faster, but he also rightly pointed out that a lot of countries have only started a symbolic media campaign and that the Netherlands was waiting to make sure everything was in place for an efficient vaccination programme.

 I expect CDA and VVD to suffer the polls because of this.  


Also Theo Hiddema has now left the FvD finding its platform too populist and orientated towards the Coronavirus crisis. THis now leaves the FvD as a Baudet personality vehicle, and he'll have nothing to lose. Don't count him out yet, he's proven to be an effective campaigner that can outflank Wilders, who has a more "old school" approach to the Den Haag circuit.
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PSOL
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« Reply #792 on: January 05, 2021, 08:31:12 AM »

B1JI polled enough for one seat. If they can play their cards right, I could see them taking a lot of grassroots support from SP and DENK. Good riddance.
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freek
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« Reply #793 on: January 07, 2021, 12:10:18 PM »
« Edited: January 14, 2021, 05:48:04 AM by freek »

New topic for the election or can a mod change the thread title?

Anyway 89 parties have registered their names to be on the ballot. They have to submit lists and other official documents.

FvD's breakaway is called JA21 (Yes21)

The full list of the new parties :

Lijst Henk Krol
OPRECHT
Directe Democratie Partij
HET NIEUWE GELUID (HNG)
Idr1
Algemene Politieke Partij Nederland
Partij voor Ontwikkeling
Splinter
NIDA
Liberaal Nederland
JA21
Partij Zonder Naam
het Zetel Genootschap
Wij zijn Nederland
KINDPARTIJ
Blije Burgers
Volksbesluit
INL
Politieke Partij Nexus
Samen Sterk (USM)
EVERT!
Partij van de Eenheid
Partij voor de Kinderbelangen
Partij voor de Republiek
Nuchter Nederland
De Jongeren Partij


I'll do a rundown of those on the ballot when it is confirmed.
Parties have to turn in their candidate lists on February 1st.

Parties that didn't manage to get into parliament in 2017 also need to pay a €11250 deposit (returned when the party passes 0.5% of the votes), and 580 'declarations of support' to participate in all electoral districts. This is the largest hurdle for new parties, because there have to be 30 for each electoral district (there are 19 of these). For the 20th district (the Caribbean BES islands), 10 suffices. The forms have to be signed at the municipal hall, and co-signed by a civil servant, i a 4 week period between January 4 & February 1.

Previously, aspiring parties would post near a municipal hall and convince passers-by to sign the declaration. Currently, most municipalities have switched to work by appointment only. Hopefully, this limits the number of participating parties a bit.

My guess is that ~10 parties manage to participate in the whole (or almost the whole) country, probably all from this group. Some of them are eerily silent on social media though.

Code Oranje
JA21
BIJ1
Lijst Henk Krol
Splinter
Vrij en Sociaal Nederland
Piratenpartij
NIDA
Volt
Boer Burger Beweging
Libertaire Partij (formerly Libertarische Partij)
NL Beter (and/or Zorgend Nederland)
De Feestpartij
Jezus Leeft
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freek
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« Reply #794 on: January 07, 2021, 12:28:24 PM »

B1JI polled enough for one seat. If they can play their cards right, I could see them taking a lot of grassroots support from SP and DENK. Good riddance.
Not from DENK. Completely different cultural background. Almost every non-muslim left DENK when Sylvana Simons left in 2016.

I don't really buy BIJ1 gaining a seat. The party only barely managed to win a seat in Amsterdam council in 2018, which is their stronghold. The Dutch/Surinamese Creole population is too small, even if you add Dutch/Antillean and others. And PvdD is also picking up lots of votes of disappointed SP & GroenLinks voters.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #795 on: January 07, 2021, 12:56:40 PM »

It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).
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freek
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« Reply #796 on: January 11, 2021, 12:30:17 PM »

It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).
EU funds politics is hardly a topic.
Environment is, though. Especially in connection with the climate crisis, wind mill construction, housing shortage and protesting farmers because of nitrogen emissions.

Also an important issue is something which is probably best translated as the 'tax benefits scandal'. In short: after some fraud cases regarding the handing out social benefits, very strict anti-fraud laws were implemented. Turns out, these laws had unintended consequences: harsh treatment of 'fraud cases' as a missing signature on a form or a mother who supplied her child on benefits with some groceries once in a while. In many cases, tens of thousands of euros had to be repaid.

Both the Tax Agency (which handed out the benefits and handled the fraud cases) and the government were not very helpful in supplying relevant information to those who were affected, and to parliament. This may have some consequences the following weeks, resignation of the government is not out of the picture.
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freek
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« Reply #797 on: January 11, 2021, 12:48:37 PM »

Because of the Covid-19 issues, the election process on has been altered in some ways.

  • Instead of 2 weeks, new parties now have 4 weeks to collect 580 declarations of support
  • Voters have always been allowed to vote by proxy, and may still do so. But a voter may now vote for 3 others on their behalf instead of 2.
  • Voters are still allowed to vote in a random polling station in their municipality, but an exception has been made for the newly created 'restricted polling stations' in homes for the elderly and in hospitals. Here only residents/patients are allowed entrance. The municipality supplies an official poll observer.
  • There will be early voting on a limited number of polling stations per municipality on Monday & Tuesday (March 15 & 16). Early voting is completely new for the Netherlands. It is primarily intended for voters with health risks, but not limited to them. These ballots will be counted on Wednesday, counting will start from 07:30am.
  • All voters over 70 are allowed to vote by mail, and will be automatically mailed a ballot. Vote by mail was already possible, but only for citizens living abroad. It was not possible to include those under 70 with medical problems, due to logistics. The postal vote is not mandatory for the elderly, they may also opt to vote in person instead. There will also be drop-off boxes for mail ballots. Ballots have to be received by the municipality on March 17.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #798 on: January 13, 2021, 04:24:26 PM »

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« Reply #799 on: January 13, 2021, 05:02:31 PM »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html
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