Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north, south east of Limburg and possible betuwe voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

It looks similar like this so far
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/74/Tweede_Kamerverkiezingen_2003.png/800px-Tweede_Kamerverkiezingen_2003.png

[SunSt0rm]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

Those are just lib dems places or Labour places like the GE2017 in the UK

[SunSt0rm]

Expected end result 46.5-49.5-4

I am going to sleep

[SunSt0rm]

Result Referendum

For 46.5%
Against 49.5%
Blanc 4%

[SunSt0rm]

Two hypothetical coalition questions:

1. If GL were to win the most seats for a left-wing party, what would be some likely coalitions?

2. In the (very) hypothetical scenario that parties were willing to work with PVV to form a coalition, which parties would be most likely to do so? I assume FvD is one of them.

EDIT: One more question:

The VVD leadership election in which Rutte won was seen as the right-liberals vs. more right-wing conservatives (iirc). After Rutte leaves, what are the chances of the conservative faction taking control of the party?

1. Klaver wanted a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA government during the 2017 election. You could add PvdD and CU as well in the combination. Such an option is very unlikely as CDA more or less ruled it out during the 2017 campaign and the VVD-CDA-D66-GL negotiations failed because of differences between CDA/VVD and GL. Purple Plus VVD-PvdA-D66-GL could be an option, but also unlikely as  GL moved left since 2010.

2. It is very unlikely that the PVV is ever in a government since 2012. The only parties that could work with PVV are probably FVD and SGP and maybe 50+. It very much depends if VVD and CDA ever change their stance of never governing with PVV.

3. The next likely successor of Rutte is Dijkhoff currently factionleader of in parliament. He is probably more conservative than Rutte. He recently has highlighted right wing proposals as cutting welfare of people who are unwilling to work and sending refugees back after more than 5 years. MVD or David probably know more about Dijkhoff than me

[SunSt0rm]

Polls will close in 15 mins.
Exit poll of Zuid Holland will be presented at 21:00 local time
On 21:20 exit polls of Noord Brabant will be shown
On 21:40 for Gelderland
Finally on 22:00 the exit polls of the Senate will be given

[SunSt0rm]

ZH exit poll compared to 2015
VVD 15.6% (-1.9%) 9 seats (-1)
PVV 6.8% (-7.4%) 4 seats (-4)
D66 8.0% (-4.8%) 4 seats (-3)
CDA 7.9% (-4.1%) 4 seats (-3)
PvdA 8.5% (-1.4%) 5 seats (-)
SP 4.3% (-5%) 2 seats (-3)
SGP 4.1% (-0.7%) 2 seats (-1)
CU 6.0% (+1.3%) 3 seats (-)
GL 8.4% (+3.7%) 5 seats (+2)
PvdD 4.5% (+0.4%) 2 seats (-)
50+ 5.1% (+1.4%) 3 seats (+1)
Denk 3.4% (+3.4%) 2 seats (+2)
FvD 16.1% (+16.1%) 10 seats (+10)

[SunSt0rm]

Noord Brabant exit poll
VVD 15.9% (-1.4%) 10 (-)
CDA 13.3% (-3.8%) 8 (-1)
SP 9.4% (-6.6%) 5 (-4)
PVV 7.8% (-4.9%) 4 (-3)
D66 8.9% (-3.1%) 5 seats (-2)
PvdA 6.6% (-1.4%) 4 seats (-)
GL 8.2% (+3.7%) 5 seats (+2)
50+ 4.6% (+0.3%) 2 seats (-)
PvdD 3.6% (+0.5%) 2 seats (-)
CU/SGP 2.4% (+0.4%) 1 seat (-)
Local 2.5% (+0.7%) 1 seat (-)
FvD 14.1% (+14.1%) 8 seats (+8)

Denk under threshold

[SunSt0rm]

-So far its clearly that FvD is the big winner of the election. It could possibly be the largest party, although I expect the VVD will hold it.

-The government suffers losses. Small loses for VVD, decent loss for CDA and D66. CU very stable.

-SP and PVV are also the big losers. PVV losing lot of voters to FvD.

-Decent gains for GL, but I expected the gains be bigger tbh

[SunSt0rm]

-So far its clearly that FvD is the big winner of the election. It could possibly be the largest party, although I expect the VVD will hold it.

-The government suffers losses. Small loses for VVD, decent loss for CDA and D66. CU very stable.

-SP and PVV are also the big losers. PVV losing lot of voters to FvD.

-Decent gains for GL, but I expected the gains be bigger tbh

As for FvD, could someone tell me how Eurosceptic they are?

Are they like the FPÖ (critical but do not want to leave) or are they for an exit out of the EU altogether?

Baudet is very hard eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU as soon as possible

Henk Otter, Future senate faction leader, is less eurosceptic who wants to reform the EU first before possibly leaving it

The EU election of 2019 will be interesting as FvD splitting views can be exposed

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll Senate
VVD 14.0% (-1.9%) 12 seats (-1)
CDA 11.5% (-3.2%) 8 seats (-4)
D66 8.0% (-4.5%) 7 seats (-3)
PVV 7.7% (-4.0%) 6 seats (-3)
SP 5.6% (-6.1%) 4 seats (-5)
PvdA 8.6% (-1.5%) 7 seats (-1)
GL 10.1% (+4.7%) 8 seats (+4)
CU 5.1% (+1.1%) 4 seats (+1)
50+ 4.3% (+0.9%) 3 seats (+1)
PvdD 4.5% (+1.1%) 3 seats (+1)
SGP 2.5% (-0.3%) 1 seats (-1)
Locals 3.5% (-0.9%) 1 seats (-)
Denk 1.4% (+1.4%) 1 seats (+1)
Fvd 13.3% (+13.3%) 10 seats (+10)

Coalition 31 seats, 7 seats short of majority, so either PvdA or GL is already enough

[SunSt0rm]

Big chances that Forum will become the largest party. They are getting big results in the west (Noord Holland & Zuid Holland)

[SunSt0rm]

Is there a reason why SP did so badly even compared to the other left parties? Who did they lose most of their votes to?

They don't really have clear message, but rather an uninspiring protest party. The party is completely spliited on immigration, whereas their (potential) voters are much more conservative on social issues. The one who wants to be though on immigration and identity move to FvD, whereas the progressive voters go to GL.

[SunSt0rm]

90% counted

FvD 14.4% 13 seats
VVD 13.8% 12 seats
CDA 11.1% 9 seats
GL 10.7% 9 seats
PvdA 8.5% 7 seats
D66 7.7% 6 seats
PVV 7.0% 5 seats
SP 5.9% 4 seats
CU 4.8% 4 seats
PvdD 4.8% 3 seats
50+ 3.3% 2 seats
SGP 2.4% 1 seats
Denk 1.7% 0 seats
Locals 0 seats

VVD+CDA+D66+CU=31 seats, 7 seats short of a majority.

The seat distribution is not sure yet, even if the result is final. Parties are going to negotiate to distribute the left overs. Expect the coalition to distribute their seats as efficient as possible to maximize their seat total and other parties will try as well. The final result, however, wont differ more than 1 seat for each party.

Also notable FvD+VVD+CDA+PVV= 39 seats, which can telling for the next government.

[SunSt0rm]

Not really unexpected, but 50+ faction leader Henk Krol, who sided with Dales, has defected from the party and has formed a new party The Party for the Future together with mp Merel van Kooten who defected from the PvdD a year ago. Expect to see a collapse of support of 50+ in the coming weeks.

Moreover, in the turmoil within Denk, faction leader Azarkan has been ousted from the party by the board chaired by Azarkan

[SunSt0rm]

Some polls now during the Corona Crisis shows that the VVD are surging and a collapse of 50+

Peil:
VVD: 32 seats (+12 pre corona)
PvdA: 19 (+2)
PVV: 18 (-1)
CDA: 17 (+4)
GL: 13 (+1)
FvD: 11 (-5)
D66: 10 (-4)
SP: 10 (=)
CU: 8 (+2)
PvdD: 5 (-1)
SGP: 4 (=)
50+: 1 (-9)
Denk: 1 (-2)
PvdT: 1 (+1) (Krol new Party)

I&O Research:
VVD: 43 (+16)
GL: 16 (-1)
PvdA: 15 (+1)
PVV: 13 (-4)
CDA: 13 (-1)
FvD: 12 (-3)
SP: 11 (+2)
D66: 8 (-2)
CU: 7 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-1)
SGP: 4 (=)
50+: 1 (-9)
Denk: 1 (=)
PvdT: 1 (+1)

Ipsos (before 50+ defection):
VVD: 39 (+12)
PvdA: 15 (+1)
PVV: 14 (-4)
CDA: 14 (=)
GL: 13 (-2)
D66: 12 (-1)
FvD: 10 (-5)
SP: 8 (+1)
50+: 8 (-2)
CU: 7 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-1)
SGP: 3 (=)
Denk: 2 (=)

Favourable Rutte-3 government
Favourable: 67%
Unfavourable: 30%

Before Corona it was negative


Support of current Corona measures: 75% (-15)
Support of economic support measures: 63% (-12)

Support of current loosening Corona measures:
Right: 51%
Going too fast: 23%
Going too slow: 22%

[SunSt0rm]

Official: Government has resigned

[SunSt0rm]

Official: Government has resigned

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?

Very likely March 17th as planned

[SunSt0rm]

What is the cause of the recent riots in the Netherlands?

the curfew which is a controversial high political issue too.

Is there a political party in the Netherlands that will run on an anti-curfew, anti-lockdown, anti-mask platform?

FvD is clearly the most anti-corona measure of the current parliament. I believe even PVV support some of the current measures (definetely not the curfew though).

The curfew is somewhat controversial even though it was passed by a large majority in parliament after D66 and leftists parties withdrew their opposition. Though, I believe a majority of the people support the current measures even the curfew from polls

[SunSt0rm]

What is the cause of the recent riots in the Netherlands?

the curfew which is a controversial high political issue too.

Is there a political party in the Netherlands that will run on an anti-curfew, anti-lockdown, anti-mask platform?

Probably best not to group these together as one coherent anti-corona-measures *program* tbh. Best to just accept the mandated masks and push back against all the other restrictions.

The curfew is somewhat controversial even though it was passed by a large majority in parliament after D66 and leftists parties withdrew their opposition. Though, I believe a majority of the people support the current measures even the curfew from polls

There does seem to be a trend in some Western European countries at least from what I've read that there's a pretty substantial disconnect between general polling numbers on "Approve/Disapprove _____ to control the spread of COVID" and the actual feelings of individuals when interviewed, focus-grouped, etc. Seem to remember reading quite a lot of evidence for that last summer and fall in the UK especially--could the Dutch population be similar?

There is certainly a big portion of the population that is done with the lockdown and curfew, but these riots are mostly done by hooligans, far right and youngsters (immigrants) who are you just looking for reasons to riot and looting now and its not about the Covid measures anymore.

[SunSt0rm]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Sounds significant - was this expected?

It is significant from the little I have read. Government basically bypassed parliament when they shouldn't have. The lockdowns do not constitute an urgent situation where government would be allowed to enact such a measure without parliament. And parliament is much more divided over the curfew than government.

Expected - sort of. I think you are going to see a lot of courts take governments to task over measures that don't pass the standards their predecessors wrote. IU think we have seen other occasions in Spain and Germany. I also thought the curfew in Brussels was basically illegal. The problem is, of course, that the anti-curfew movement here is basically hijacked by the Covid-deniers and anti-lcokdown crowd that can't argue a case without looking unhinged.

Somwhat, Government just used the wrong instrument to get it done. They used the emergency route, but the judges argued it apparantly was not acut enough as debates were planned and the curfew was not implemented directly after the announcement. This route can only be used by real emergency like flooding, terrorist attacks when laws can not be implemented the normal way. So apparantly the judges argued that the government should have either completely have bypassed parliament and can use this route or do it the normal way if you consult parliament anyway

[SunSt0rm]

Some campaign news:

Bad news for PvdA, their party is not invited for the first televised election debate 28th of February. The 6 largest party (VVD, PVV, CDA, D66, GL and SP) calculated from 2017 and current polls.

However, the PvdA is invited for the EenVandaag debate on 15th of March 2 days before the official election date and on the first early voting day, where the SP is not invited as they invited only the 6 largest party according to the polls.

The debates will be more important than usual as parties are limited to campaign caused by Covid-19

[SunSt0rm]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Government has successfully appealed the decision and the curfew will stay until friday when the court will make a final decision. In the mean time, government will make a law just in case the appeal will fail next friday

[SunSt0rm]

There was a first round of debates this week on NOS op 3 youtube with a focus on young people (its the "yoof" channel) and all parties in parliament + 3 small ones. Followed by the Big One on RTL Nieuws last night, with the top 6 (Rutte, Wilders, Hoekstra, Klaver, Marijnissen, Kaag).

Wilders turned NOS op 3 down so Rutte was able to just take in the questions on his own. Klaver and Marijnissen were paired which was a bit of a love in, as was Kaag and Segers. Ploumen and Hoekstra offered more of a contrast  Baudet and Denk leader Farid Azarkan had arguably the most confrontational/entertaining one, and the most interesting was the one with Bij1, VOLT and JA21. Nanninga was a last minute replacement for JA21 and I thought she did quite well.


Because I watched the NOS op 3 debates I didn't watch all of the big one yesterday night, on RTL Nieuws, I just saw clips. On the debate stage there was no PvdA as mentioned previously. Instead though you had Rutte for the first time in a while having to face the Left, Wilders as well as CDA all on one platform. His tetchyest moment of the night though came when a victim of the benefits scandal confronted him head on about it.

Kaag for D66 looked like the surprise of the night but I guess that's also because she was a bit of an unknown quantity.
Marijnissen was good.
Klaver was a little dissapointing, rehearsed and he got the national football team manager wrong. I never understood the Jessiah movement. I thought he was in a solid position last time and bombed the debates too.

Wilders was witty and caricatural but that will bring out the base for him. Remains to be seen how he does vs FvD and JA21. I still think Baudet's more conspiracy/party kartel approach plus full corona scepticism means he is underpolled and perform better than expected from people turning down pollsters or just thinking on the day to vote against measures.


One thing of note though from my outsider's perspective was how the spectrum has drifted left on economics, quite considerably. All of them are in favour of higher taxes on the rich for repaying Corona debt, and Wilders for example was really banging in points about Rutte's austerity.

I have watched the RTL debate and mostly agree with your assessment.
Rutte was solid throughout the debate, but was shaky when he was confronted by a benefit victim. I thought Kaag was a small suprise as this was her first debate and she comes out competent without being out of touch (though I wonder if she really can win votes with her elitist appearance). Marijnissen was also quite good and she did much better than her predecessor that tanked during the previous debates. Wilders just did his thing and was the only person that can really distinguish from Rutte and the other parties who did not really differ much.

The only somewhat loser of the debate were Klaver and Hoekstra. Both came too rehearsed and their answers came out not natural. Its a bit annoying that Klaver has to involve his family on every subject. And Hoekstra could not really distinguish himself of Rutte at all and it seems like they agree on pretty much everything and his only attack on Rutte character was rather weak.

Overall I think there were no real winners and losers of this debate and I dont think it will change the narritive too much the coming weeks. Also notable that pretty much all parties with the exception of Wilders agree on most of the subjects. The movement to the left has caused the right to agree with increasing the tax on the rich and willingness to combat climate change. On Corona, most parties agree with the government policy so far. They were mostly debating on the details of it. Moreover, all parties seem to realize that the next government will likely need 4 or more parties and parties were constructive during the debate rather than combative. At one moment during the debate Klaver was acting the 'enlighted centrist' calling for unity and constructiveness. I wonder though if some left-wing voters are more looking for more confrontation towards Rutte rather being constructive.

Finally, I like the format (though I think the subjects were dull). The conversations with some citizens at this debate was refreshing as it takes the politicians out of their comfortzone where they really can't prepare their answers in advance unlike in normal debates.

[SunSt0rm]

What was the logic behind having a debate with the top 6 parties? It appears that there's a much bigger gap between 7th and 8th than between 6th and 7th.

Some campaign news:

Bad news for PvdA, their party is not invited for the first televised election debate 28th of February. The 6 largest party (VVD, PVV, CDA, D66, GL and SP) calculated from 2017 and current polls.

However, the PvdA is invited for the EenVandaag debate on 15th of March 2 days before the official election date and on the first early voting day, where the SP is not invited as they invited only the 6 largest party according to the polls.

The debates will be more important than usual as parties are limited to campaign caused by Covid-19

I don't know why they chose 6 either but I guess it just gets overcrowded otherwise.

Its already expanded to 6 from 4 which was the format then (it was called the "prime-minister debate"). In 2017 there were some controversities as RTL planned to be origanally be the top 4 but expanded last minute, because the differences between the parties were too small in the polls. Rutte and Wilders then withdrew from the debate not agreeing with the final change. I think this time RTL just want to put a hard limit and expanding too much will leads to be overcrowded, PvdA is just unlucky this time. Next big debate EenVandaag will invite the 6 largest party but according to the current polls. PvdA will be invited and SP will be unlucky.

The final debate at NOS will consists of all parties plus the parties that have splitted during this parliament (JA21, Lijst Henk Krol and Splinter). The 8 largest parties (discussed 7 plus CU) will be invited to the main format, whereas the smaller parties (PvdD, 50+, FvD, Denk, SGP, JA21, LHK and Splinter) will participate in a different format.

The main format will consists of 8 one-to-one debates decided by draw
Wilders vs Kaag
Marijnissen vs Ploumen
Klaver vs Hoekstra
Rutte vs Wilders
Segers vs Klaver
Kaag vs Marijnissen
Ploumen vs Segers
Hoekstra vs Rutte

Most of them will probably be dull. Though there is a classic PVV vs D66 debate and Rutte vs Wilders will be interesting, but only one real right vs left debate (Hoekstra vs Klaver)