Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Update:



Gov. Mikl-Leitner and the ÖVP today:





FPÖ:



The SPD-isation of the FPÖ begins ...

[windjammer]

Wait,
Why are you saying the SPDisation of the FPO?
I mean, they literally the worst candidate ever and they still increased their score

[Tender Branson]

Wait,
Why are you saying the SPDisation of the FPO?
I mean, they literally the worst candidate ever and they still increased their score

Because the FPÖ was polling between 19-23% before the election and ended up with around 15%. While only a state election, this is very good news for Kurz because there have been polls out recently which had voters thinking that Strache prevailed over Kurz in the coalition talks and is the actual "leader" of the government. This was certainly proven wrong today and it's also bad for the FPÖ's chances to win the Carinthia state election on March 4. In the state elections in Tyrol and Salzburg, the ÖVP will also dominate.

[DavidB.]

Don't think this is SPDization at all. Has much more to do with the specific issue regarding Landbauer.

[MaxQue]

Don't think this is SPDization at all. Has much more to do with the specific issue regarding Landbauer.

Given the FPO unwillingness to deal with Landbauer, I would say it's tarring all the party.

[DavidB.]

Don't think this is SPDization at all. Has much more to do with the specific issue regarding Landbauer.

Given the FPO unwillingness to deal with Landbauer, I would say it's tarring all the party.

Perhaps; perhaps not. In any case not the same as SPDization.

[Tender Branson]

Clickable map of party strength by town:

http://m.noen.at/noe-wahl/ergebnisse/gemeinde

While it might not be full "SPDisation", the FPÖ will have a really hard time against the Kurz ÖVP.

I think the FPÖ will really underperform in the next state elections to April ...

[Tender Branson]

Currently, the FPÖ is looking for a "nice way out" for Landbauer:

Even though the FPÖ keeps strongly backing their disgraced state leader Udo Landbauer and calling the election result a "big victory with gains that other parties can only dream of", it seems that Landbauer could still be out of the running for the FPÖ's single government post under the Proporz-system. The FPÖ could choose another government member. Why ? It is likely that the other parties could remove all of Landbauer's political power if the FPÖ still chooses him as government member ... He'd cash in 16.000€ per month without having any work to do. Which is certainly not something that the FPÖ prefers.

https://derstandard.at/2000073253280/DieFPOe-sucht-ein-Exit-Szenario-fuer-Udo-Landbauer

[Tender Branson]

53% of FPÖ-voters from the federal election in October either stayed home or voted for other parties in the Lower Austrian state election yesterday:

Oct. 2017 FPÖ/FLÖ-vote in Lower Austria: 282.000 votes (26.0%)

Yesterday: 134.000 votes (14.7%)

Turnout was 85% in October, but only 67% yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

State election results yesterday by gender:



And by education (only 1% with a university degree voted for the FPÖ):



And by age:



And by blue-collar workers vs. white-collar employees:



And voter transfers:

http://orf.at/wahl/noe18/#migration

[DavidB.]

Insane how many people who voted FPÖ in the GE 2017 stayed home yesterday. That was always going to happen to a certain extent, of course, as their electorate is simply less likely to vote in second-order elections, but the negative press for Landbauer undoubtedly contributed to the magnitude of it. Another effect has been that 1/3 of Stronach 2013 voters stayed home, only 1/5th voted FPÖ (probably much higher in the GE) and sizeable groups of voters went from TS to ÖVP and SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Insane how many people who voted FPÖ in the GE 2017 stayed home yesterday. That was always going to happen to a certain extent, of course, as their electorate is simply less likely to vote in second-order elections, but the negative press for Landbauer undoubtedly contributed to the magnitude of it. Another effect has been that 1/3 of Stronach 2013 voters stayed home, only 1/5th voted FPÖ (probably much higher in the GE) and sizeable groups of voters went from TS to ÖVP and SPÖ.

I think that the argument is still valid that 50% of FPÖ-voters are die-hard followers or virtually die-hard Nazis, who don't give a damn about a songbook with "Step on the gas, we'll make it to 7 milllion !" that was distributed by Landbauer's fraternity, of which he was Vice-President.

While the other 50% of FPÖ-voters are simply protest-voters, who maybe have a tiny piece of conscience left. Those were the 50% that stayed home yesterday or voted for the ÖVP and others.

But it is still kinda shocking and a shame that 9% of eligible voters (134.000 out of 1.4 million eligible) voted for the FPÖ yesterday, fully aware of the Nazi songbook thing.

[DavidB.]

I thought this article in the Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German) was quite good on Landbauer and the fact that it seems one can get away with anything Nazi-related in Austrian politics nowadays. Can't say I fully agree with the alarmist tone and conclusions, but it was an interesting read. My main criticism is: was it ever different? The author of the article suggests that the Overton Window has shifted, but I don't know.

In other news, Strache came under attack today because in September he suggested independence for the Serb Republic within Bosnia in a TV interview to a Serb channel:
https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-heinz-christian-strache-under-attack-for-bosnia-comments

Had missed this. Good that he is breaking the taboo on this. Don't know if independence is the right way to go forward, but the current constellation doesn't work.

[Tender Branson]

I thought this article in the Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German) was quite good on Landbauer and the fact that it seems one can get away with anything Nazi-related in Austrian politics nowadays. Can't say I fully agree with the alarmist tone and conclusions, but it was an interesting read. My main criticism is: was it ever different? The author of the article suggests that the Overton Window has shifted, but I don't know.

The state prosecution is investigating 4 people who were responsible for creating and distributing the songbooks though.

Landbauer is not among them, for now. But could be later on, depending what these 4 people are saying in their trials.

So, he may "get away with it" ... or not.

[Omega21]

Why isn't anyone mentioning the NÖ (Lower Austria) SPÖ politician who is now in jail because he is suspected to have molested children? On top of that, it was found that he had a Nazi Cult in his basement (uniforms, grenades, propaganda etc.).

Both parties definitely need to take action against this kind of sh*t, although FPÖ probably needs to do more than the SPÖ.

http://www.krone.at/1626307

[DavidB.]

Why isn't anyone mentioning the NÖ (Lower Austria) SPÖ politician who is now in jail because he is suspected to have molested children? On top of that, it was found that he had a Nazi Cult in his basement (uniforms, grenades, propaganda etc.).

Part of the reason is probably that Nazi pedo gangs are clearly unrelated to the SPÖ ideology, but one cannot deny that there is an awkwardly close relation between neo-Nazi elements in Austrian society and the FPÖ. This means scandals with neo-Nazism hurt the FPÖ more than pedo scandals hurt the SPÖ. It's natural. On the other hand, scandals with expenses/accusations of corruption/unethical bonuses tend to hurt social democratic politicians and parties more than conservative politicians and parties.

[Tender Branson]

Why isn't anyone mentioning the NÖ (Lower Austria) SPÖ politician who is now in jail because he is suspected to have molested children? On top of that, it was found that he had a Nazi Cult in his basement (uniforms, grenades, propaganda etc.).

Part of the reason is probably that Nazi pedo gangs are clearly unrelated to the SPÖ ideology, but one cannot deny that there is an awkwardly close relation between neo-Nazi elements in Austrian society and the FPÖ. This means scandals with neo-Nazism hurt the FPÖ more than pedo scandals hurt the SPÖ. It's natural. On the other hand, scandals with expenses/accusations of corruption/unethical bonuses tend to hurt social democratic politicians and parties more than conservative politicians and parties.

The "real scandal" besides the horrible crimes is that the SPÖ-PedoNazi politician was already arrested last Thursday, but the scandal was only made public yesterday, one day after the election ... (which the FPÖ is now using as an attack, to take the attention away from their own Nazi scandal).

Plus, another bombshell today: One of the 4 people which are under investigation by the state prosecution for creating and distributing the FPÖ Nazi songbook ... is in fact an SPÖ member.

Also, the important FPÖ-leader of Upper Austria, Manfred Haimbuchner, has strongly attacked his own party today and called for "weeding out the idiots within, who still have a clear Nazi-mindset". He said: "Those who still think along these [Nazi] lines today, are sick in their head." Haimbuchner is always mentioned to follow Strache as FPÖ-leader once he retires.

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Wer-heute-noch-in-diesen-Kategorien-denkt-der-ist-nicht-ganz-dicht;art383,2800052

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/noe-nazibuch-affaere-trifft-auch-spoe/308.925.177

In other news, Chancellor Kurz met PM Orban of Hungary in an official state visit today:

http://orf.at/stories/2424526/2424527

[TheSaint250]

Also, the important FPÖ-leader of Upper Austria, Manfred Haimbuchner, has strongly attacked his own party today and called for "weeding out the idiots within, who still have a clear Nazi-mindset". He said: "Those who still think along these [Nazi] lines today, are sick in their head." Haimbuchner is always mentioned to follow Strache as FPÖ-leader once he retires.

Haimbuchner seems to be a FF FPÖ leader (from what I can tell)

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ (!) government has just decided to dissolve the Far-Right Germania fraternity:

http://orf.at/m/stories/2424602/2424603

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ (!) government has just decided to dissolve the Far-Right Germania fraternity:

http://orf.at/m/stories/2424602/2424603

The state prosecution has now ordered the confiscated Nazi songbooks to be tested chemically.

This is important, because the Nazi parts of the confiscated songbooks were blacked out.

If the tests reveal that they were only blacked out a week ago, FPÖ-leader of Lower Austria Udo Landbauer has a big problem and could be tried in court for Neo-Nazism.

If the texts were blacked out already 20 years ago, when he was only 10 years old, he could "get away with it" ...

It is also important to know when the texts were blacked out, because the period of limitation is 10 years.

https://derstandard.at/2000073374637/NS-Liederbuch-Welche-Huerden-es-auf-dem-Weg-zur-Aufloesung

Plus, the FPÖ will decide tomorrow if Landbauer will become Lower Austria government member for the FPÖ or not.

It is likely that Gottfried Waldhäusl, currently their group leader in the state parliament, will become government member - while Landbauer becomes state parliament group leader instead.

https://derstandard.at/2000073365105/FPOe-trifft-am-Donnerstag-Entscheidung-ueber-Landesrat

[Tender Branson]

Gay marriage debate in parliament today:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180131_OTS0215/debatte-zur-ehe-fuer-alle-im-nationalrat

It will become legal no later than Jan. 1, 2019 by Constitutional Court order - but the 3 opposition parties (SPÖ+NEOS+Pilz) have submitted a request today to allow it earlier this year.

ÖVP+FPÖ are blocking it. The ÖVP wants "are careful legal review" over the next year, while the FPÖ opposes it in general and favours the current civil union law.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING:

Udo Landbauer (FPÖ) steps down from all political offices.

https://mobil.derstandard.at/2000073429845/FPOe-Spitzenkandidat-Landbauer-legt-alle-politischen-Funktionen-zurueck

Good.

[Tender Branson]

Ahead of the February 25 state election there, the Tyrol-FPÖ is also in trouble now (but certainly not to the extent of the Lower Austrian FPÖ):

https://derstandard.at/2000073440449/Tiroler-FPOe-Wahlkampf-Denn-sie-wissen-nicht-was-sie-plakatieren

The Tyrol-FPÖ decided to put up election posters with the name of 19 big Tyrolian companies with more than 500 workers each next to their company headquarters, reading "You are the motor of our economy !"

Problem: the FPÖ didn't ask the companies before. Now they are suing the FPÖ because they want nothing to do with the FPÖ and asked via court to remove the posters in the whole state.

I expect no more than 15% for the Tyrol-FPÖ either in the state election, which would be far below the 25% in the federal elections last year and also below their record in state elections under Jörg Haider in the late 90s ...

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, Chancellor Kurz demanded/forced Landbauer (FPÖ) to resign behind closed doors - which Strache accepted. If true, it would mean that Kurz is at least standing by his word to weed out Nazis in his coalition.

The FPÖ now wants to leave their scandal behind and set up a commission with historians to investigate the FPÖ's ties to the far-right fraternities, in an attempt for transparency.

I think this is too little and too late though. The FPÖ will "suffer" (but still gain from their low levels) in the next state elections, but the ÖVP will be the real winner.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5365178/Wie-die-OeVP-den-Ruecktritt-von-Udo-Landbauer-erzwang

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll about the FPÖ's Nazi songbook scandal:

68% find it unacceptable and want a full investigation
18% say it was blown out of proportion by leftist media to hurt the FPÖ
  9% have not heard about the story so far
  5% are undecided/have no opinion

The 68% btw break down into 33% of hard opponents who say it was always clear that the FPÖ and fraternities are Nazis and this is just another case, while 35% say it is not acceptable and want a full investigation.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-grosse-ablehnung-germania-8852931