Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

After Kurz/Strache agreed on a plan to grant South Tyrolians Austrian citizenship, Italy is now shifting more and more against allowing it (after saying they are open to it before):

https://www.ft.com/content/c4d5ef34-e4d2-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Already sounds more productive than our government

Not really a hard feat to accomplish though, to be honest...

[TheSaint250]

Already sounds more productive than our government

Not really a hard feat to accomplish though, to be honest...

So very true

[Tender Branson]

The government will present itself in parliament today for the first time.

The opposition actually attacked Kurz (!) for ignoring parliament and heading to Juncker, Tusk and Tajani - before appearing in parliament.

Also, 8 new MPs will be sworn in today to replace the new cabinet members. Sobotka will become the new President of Parliament, FPÖ's Kitzmüller will replace Norbert Hofer as 3rd President.

[Zinneke]

Tender is it true that if the Sudtiroleans get citizenship they would be the only Austrian citizenship allowed to have dual citizenship?

[Tender Branson]

Tender is it true that if the Sudtiroleans get citizenship they would be the only Austrian citizenship allowed to have dual citizenship?

Not sure if I fully understand your question, but here is the relevant part of the Coalition Contract:

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Link

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So, they can request Austrian citizenship (with all duties included) and keep their Italian citizenship.

Also, dual-citizenship is generally not allowed in Austria (allowed only if you are born to an Austrian mother/father with the other parent being from another country), or if you get citizenship for outstanding services to the Republic (such as scientists, sportspeople, musicians, etc.)

Which means that South Tyrolians would be the only ones who'd get dual citizenship as a group of people, together with Holocaust victims who had to leave Austria after the Nazis took power here.

[Tender Branson]

Internal SPÖ-poll (Jaksch & Partner) for the April 22 state election here in Salzburg:

34% ÖVP
24% FPÖ
23% SPÖ
10% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% FPS
  1% SBG

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/umfrage-vier-monate-vor-der-landtagswahl-oevp-voran-fpoe-zweite-21939088

Another new Salzburg state election poll by GMK for the weekly "Bezirksblätter" newspaper shows completely different results:

41% ÖVP
18% SPÖ
16% FPÖ
11% Greens
  5% NEOS
  5% SBG
  3% FPS
  1% Others

https://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/lokales/die-schwarz-gruene-koalition-geht-sich-auch-in-zukunft-aus-d2342583.html

[Tender Branson]

Even though the Greens are a total joke right now, their "Star Wars" campaign for the Jan. 28 Lower Austria state election is pretty good:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ2vXE1uj8o

Each of their candidates is shown as a "Star Wars" rebel, followed by "[name] fights for ... [issue]."

[TheSaint250]

What’s SBG?

[Tender Branson]

What’s SBG?

Member of the Salzburg state government Mayr's new centrist party. Mayr is a former ÖVP-mayor, then joined the Team Stronach and when Frank Stronach pulled out of politics (because his party was a joke), he formed his own party. Mayr is responsible for housing (construction) in the state government, but is very much without a chance to enter the state parliament on his own next April.

[Tender Branson]

By a 52-39 margin, Austrian voters think Kurz will be a good/successful Chancellor.

96% of ÖVP-voters say so and 68% of FPÖ-voters.

70% of SPÖ-voters and 62% of NEOS-voters disagree (sample size was too small for Pilz-voters I guess).

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20171221_OTS0009/profil-umfrage-jeder-zweite-glaubt-dass-kurz-einen-guten-bundeskanzler-abgeben-wird

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/FPÖ remain very stable at the top in the new Research Affairs poll out today:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Erstes-Zeugnis-fuer-die-Regierung/313984158

Also:

By a 77-15 margin, Austrians want to remain in the EU. Support has increased a lot (+15%) in the past year because of Brexit and Trump.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Zustimmung-zur-EU-waechst/314057366

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll (Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies, Dec. 18-21):

31% ÖVP
28% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% LiPi
  2% Others

Did ÖVP-FPÖ keep their campaign promises in their new coalition contract ?

46% Yes
29% No
26% Undecided

Which party was most able to include their policies into the coalition contract ?

26% the FPÖ
20% the ÖVP
32% both equally
22% Undecided

Who profits most from the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition programme ?

49% Companies/Employers
  9% Workers/Employees
24% both equally
18% Undecided

Finally, the poll asked which cabinet members were a "good" or "bad" choice. Except for Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), who gets an initial 44-35 rating, almost all new cabinet members are virtually unknown to the public (even though the ÖVP cabinet members all get higher favorables than unfavorables, while the FPÖ-members are polarizing at a low level). "Don't know them" + "Undecided" are in the 70s.

Link

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz was visiting a hospital today, meeting with surgeons and nurses and handing out toys to children who have to spend Christmas at the hospital because of cancer etc.:

[Tender Branson]

Which of the main policies in the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition contract do Austrian voters approve of and which are they opposed to ?

From the new Research Affairs poll:



* Tougher penalties for criminals, such as murderers and rapists
* Increase the minimum pension to 1200€ per month
* Child tax bonus of 1500€ per child
* More direct democracy with a threshold of 900.000 petition signatures
* Welfare for foreigners only after 5 years of residence in Austria
* A re-introduction of the classic 5-grade system in schools, rather than verbal grading
* Slashing welfare payments to asylum seekers to 365€ per month (from 900€ now)
* Confiscating money and mobile phones from asylum seekers when entering the country
* Introduction of a school vacation week during fall (Oct. 26 to Nov. 2)
* Introduction of tuition fees for university students (500€ per semester)
* Less money for long-term unemployed
* Abolishing the full smoking ban in public (starting in May 2018) that SPÖVP agreed to earlier
* More work-day-flexibility, with a max. extension of daily working hours to 12

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In general, Austrian voters are happy with the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition programme by a 52-36 margin:



And by a 55-34 margin, Austrians are happy with the new cabinet:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Zeugnis-2er-fuer-Tuerkis-Blau/314153860

[Tender Branson]

Another poll out today by the outstanding pollster OGM for the "Kurier" newspaper also shows that the new ÖVP-FPÖ government gets a positive initial rating from Austrian voters:



* 46% approve of the government programme, 21% are opposed.
* 53% say politics/the political climate will become better, 26% worse
* 30% say the FPÖ beat out the ÖVP (19%) in putting their policies into the coalition contract
* 56% approve of the many experts in the new cabinet, 32% disapprove
* 26% say the harmonic relationship between Kurz/Strache will only last a few months, 30% say one year and 22% say until the next election.
* Criticism against the Interior Ministry being awarded to the FPÖ is justified (44%) vs. not justified (39%)
* Voters rate the ÖVP cabinet team positively: by a 40-19 margin, voters approve
* Voters are mixed on the FPÖ cabinet team: 33% approve, 34% disapprove

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/neue-regierung-hat-ueberraschend-starken-rueckenwind/303.323.083

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard" newspaper:

33% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  4% Greens
  2% LiPi
  2% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000070855353/Wuerde-jetzt-gewaehlt-werden-haette-OeVP-leichten-Rueckenwind

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Also, for the Jan. 28 Lower Austria state election, 5 parties will run statewide (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS). The CPÖ and WfNÖ will only run in a few of the 20 or so districts, which means they are meaningless. For the first time since WW2, the KPÖ (Communists) won't run in a Lower Austria state election. List Pilz won't run either (they will also not run in the other 3 state elections early next year). Pirates and Team Stronach are also defunct.

[Tender Branson]

Here's an overview of the 4 state elections between Jan.-April 2018 + the one in South Tyrol in the fall:



Governors + coalitions (South Tyrol currently has a SVP/PD coalition)

[Tender Branson]

OGM/Kurier also asked if voters approve or disapprove of key ÖVP/FPÖ policy proposals and only the elimination of the total smoking ban is opposed:



53-22 approve: mandatory memberships in labour unions remain, but with reforms + lower fees
48-28 approve: more direct democracy starting in 2022 + referenda starting @ 900k signatures
49-26 approve: family (or child tax credit), 1500€ per child
64-27 approve: re-introduction of classic grading in schools, rather than verbal grading
48-32 approve: long-term unemployed money should be cut if they repeatedly refuse job offers
62-14 approve: needs-based minimum welfare should be cut and capped at 1500€ per family
47-35 approve: work-day-flexibility should be expanded to allow 12-hour-days
54-34 approve: re-introduction of university tuition fees (500€ per semester)

35-56 oppose: eliminating the total smoking ban in public that SPÖVP previously passed

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz walks & talks with President Alexander Van der Bellen in a park in Vienna today:







Nobody knows what they talked about ...

[rob in cal]

  Wow, pretty nice to see one of my pet intrests (national initiative and referendum) actually being polled as to support level. Also the support level of the overall coalition policies and goals shows that pretty much most of the OVP and FPO electorate are pleased with the coalition so far.

[Tender Branson]

 Wow, pretty nice to see one of my pet intrests (national initiative and referendum) actually being polled as to support level. Also the support level of the overall coalition policies and goals shows that pretty much most of the OVP and FPO electorate are pleased with the coalition so far.

Yeah, that's definitely the case. ÖVP-FPÖ starts with a strong mandate and only the Vienna-based leftist (+journalist) bubble (+Graz and other urban areas) are currently opposed.

But they are continuing to live in their own world right now, maintaining their naive worldview on immigration, whereas 2/3 of Austrian voters have clearly voted for a change and a rebuke of this ridiculous and dangerous immigration policy.

I think Austrians like the fact that the Left got trimmed to just 1/3 of the vote and are mostly concerned with getting a decent tax cut and less immigration from culture-hostile areas such as Africa and the Middle-East + more deportations of criminal foreigners. That's virtually all they want from the new government.

[Tender Branson]

The next 2 weeks will be very uneventful politically, because Austrian Politics will go into Christmas, New Year and Three Kings hibernation.

On Jan. 8th, the campaign for the Jan. 28th Lower Austria state election will start and ÖVP/FPÖ will head to a common work retreat in a Styrian castle to finalize their measures for 2018 (such as putting together a 2018-19 double budget, which will likely be passed in late April after all states have voted). There could also be a first small-to-modest tax cut and the child tax bonus could be passed as well (which can be filed later on with the 2019 taxes).

The 2017 deficit is projected to come in at 0.6-0.8% of GDP btw, so the double budget could see a 0.2-0.6% budget deficit for 2018 and maybe a balanced budget for 2019 ...

[Classic Conservative]

Does the OVP/FPO have a similar proposal to increase the birth rate like other European conservative governments are doing? An example of this proposal is: http://nytlive.nytimes.com/womenintheworld/2016/02/11/poland-approves-monthly-benefit-for-families-to-bolster-low-birth-rates/

[Tender Branson]

Does the OVP/FPO have a similar proposal to increase the birth rate like other European conservative governments are doing? An example of this proposal is: http://nytlive.nytimes.com/womenintheworld/2016/02/11/poland-approves-monthly-benefit-for-families-to-bolster-low-birth-rates/

There's nothing specifically in their coalition contract that mentions "increasing the birth rate", but their planned child tax credit of 1500€ per child for families is probably targeting this issue.

In Poland for example, births rose 8% compared with last year - but deaths also rose by 8%, so there's still more deaths than births in the country. Anyway, these tax credits might be nice for families, but they are often a mixed bag: families like the cash infusion, but don't necessarily spend it on more kids, but rather on existing kids and other stuff. Therefore, the birth rates do not change significantly. If birth rates change at all, it's because of demographic changes - for example that a broader group of young women reach fertility age than the smaller groups before them, or if more immigrant women (with higher fertility) arrive in the country. For example, this helped push Austria's birth rate to over 10/1000 again recently.