Where is the "wave"?

[Talleyrand]

Looks like once again, forum Dems are growing delusional with their predictions of gains.

Looking at house ratings, Dems are definitely going to lose at least one seat (MN-01) and there are few realistic opportunities for gains.

I only count these as possibilities- and none of them are probable besides FL-27.

FL-27
VA-10
NE-2
CA-49

....so where is the "wave"?

[BudgieForce]

Looks like once again, forum Dems are growing delusional with their predictions of gains.

Looking at house ratings, Dems are definitely going to lose at least one seat (MN-01) and there are few realistic opportunities for gains.

I only count these as possibilities- and none of them are probable besides FL-27.

FL-27
VA-10
NE-2
CA-49

....so where is the "wave"?

Then your not looking very hard.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Idk how you determined that those are the only plausible pickups. In midterm years, the party out of power usually makes gains, especially if you have a president as unpopular as Trump. The dynamic is that the president's party is not motivated to turn out if they see that party as overstepping their authority or not living up to campaign promises, while the opposition party is energized and turns out, making the midterm electorate skewed towards the party out of power.

Also, the generic ballot has Ds up about 8%, which would indicate a wave, and while it is still early, that kind of lead at this point typically doesn't drop.

[heatcharger]

I didn't realize it was now forum consensus that there will be a wave. Most people believe Republicans will retain the house.

You forgot:

WA-8
TX-23
PA-15
FL-26
CA-39
CA-21
CA-10
CA-25
MI-11

[Nyvin]

Looks like once again, forum Dems are growing delusional with their predictions of gains.

Looking at house ratings, Dems are definitely going to lose at least one seat (MN-01) and there are few realistic opportunities for gains.

I only count these as possibilities- and none of them are probable besides FL-27.

FL-27
VA-10
NE-2
CA-49

....so where is the "wave"?

You're a clown if you really believe this.

Weren't you the one saying it was absolutely impossible Trump wins the GOP Primary last year?

[Mr.Phips]

Lol, this post reminds me of what a lot of Dems were thinking in October 2009.

[windjammer]

You will find them if you go to the beach

[Dr. Arch]

[DrScholl]

Most of the prognosticators have moved at least a dozen Republican seats to the toss up category, whereas there are few Democratic seats on the toss-up list. I'd be surprised if MN-1 flipped in this environment, so it's far from a guaranteed pickup for Republicans. It seems like you are trying to console yourself with this post more than anything else.

[Mr. Smith]

Where was it 2010 at this point for the GOP? Where was it in 2006?

[IceSpear]

Way more House seats than that would be vulnerable if the generic ballot does end up as D+7 or higher.

The problem is, Dems also led big on the generic ballot in October 2013. So you can't take it for granted that politics will stay in a vacuum for a year.

[Vosem]

14 Republican-held seats have a median rating of Leans D or Tossup from the three major prognosticators. 20 more Republican-held seats have a median rating of Leans R. That's where the wave would be coming.

[Virginiá]

The problem is, Dems also led big on the generic ballot in October 2013. So you can't take it for granted that politics will stay in a vacuum for a year.

To be fair, the brief lead you're talking about only lasted through part of September and all of October. After that it weakened considerably. It was also weakening after Q1 2013. As of now, Democrats have held a 7 - 10 point lead in the generic ballot on RCP for all of 2017. Further I would also argue that the reason Democrats were never going to hold it after 2012 under Obama was because he was a reasonably unpopular Democratic president, and the party that controls the White House almost always sees a drop in enthusiasm / midterm fortunes, which is compounded the more unpopular that president is. It was never realistic to expect Republicans to get washed away a year later in 2014. Now that it's a deeply unpopular Republican president and the Dem base is fired up, there is every reason to believe these numbers will stick, more or less.

In fact, to OP's question, a wave does seem to be visible on the horizon, but like many, maybe he doesn't want to recognize it or doesn't believe these numbers will hold:

• Large, sustained lead on generic ballot without break
• Undeniable enthusiasm gap and an energetic Democratic base
• Big fundraising advantage for individual candidates
• Historic number of candidates running in Dem primaries

Seriously, I don't get what else OP could ask for. If he demands Democrats be leading polls in head on race polls this early, that may be too much. If a wave is coming, I doubt you'll see candidate vs candidate polls with large Dem advantages until late next year. This is probably going to be a situation where neither side (wave vs no wave) can convince each other it is/isn't coming until next Fall, in which case it's pointless to argue since everyone is already dug in.

What I would concede is that geographic distribution, gerrymandering and incumbency could mean Democrats come up short even with a wave environment. It's also possible some major unexpected event could come just in time to blunt a backlash against Republicans, although this is something that should be accounted for in any election and thus isn't good to rely on, as it's so ambiguous.

[IceSpear]

The problem is, Dems also led big on the generic ballot in October 2013. So you can't take it for granted that politics will stay in a vacuum for a year.

To be fair, the brief lead you're talking about only lasted through part of September and all of October. After that it weakened considerably. It was also weakening after Q1 2013. As of now, Democrats have held a 7 - 10 point lead in the generic ballot on RCP for all of 2017. Further I would also argue that the reason Democrats were never going to hold it after 2012 under Obama was because he was a reasonably unpopular Democratic president, and the party that controls the White House almost always sees a drop in enthusiasm / midterm fortunes, which is compounded the more unpopular that president is. It was never realistic to expect Republicans to get washed away a year later in 2014. Now that it's a deeply unpopular Republican president and the Dem base is fired up, there is every reason to believe these numbers will stick, more or less.

In fact, to OP's question, a wave does seem to be visible on the horizon, but like many, maybe he doesn't want to recognize it or doesn't believe these numbers will hold:

• Large, sustained lead on generic ballot without break
• Undeniable enthusiasm gap and an energetic Democratic base
• Big fundraising advantage for individual candidates
• Historic number of candidates running in Dem primaries

Seriously, I don't get what else OP could ask for. If he demands Democrats be leading polls in head on race polls this early, that may be too much. If a wave is coming, I doubt you'll see candidate vs candidate polls with large Dem advantages until late next year. This is probably going to be a situation where neither side (wave vs no wave) can convince each other it is/isn't coming until next Fall, in which case it's pointless to argue since everyone is already dug in.

What I would concede is that geographic distribution, gerrymandering and incumbency could mean Democrats come up short even with a wave environment. It's also possible some major unexpected event could come just in time to blunt a backlash against Republicans, although this is something that should be accounted for in any election and thus isn't good to rely on, as it's so ambiguous.

I agree that the fundamentals of 2018 look great for Dems. Party out of power, consistent generic ballot polls, etc. The thing is, as you alluded to in your last paragraph, it can change on a dime. And a year is an eternity in politics. As you said with the generic ballot, the Republicans shut down the government and gave the Dems a huge lead. Then a malfunctioning website turned that into a huge Republican lead. Hillary looked like a shoo in pre-Comey letter, which was a mere week and a half before the election. McCain was very competitive with Obama before the economic collapse 2 months before the election. The list goes on.

I think it's fair to say a D wave is plausible, possibly even likely. I don't think it's the foregone conclusion many are treating it as though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Maybe the real wave is the friends we'll make along the way?

[pbrower2a]

What creates a wave?

1. "Tired" Presidency. Typically the sixth year of a two-term President -- 1958, 2014.
2. Weakened Presidency due to scandal or incompetence.  -- 1974, 2006
3. Well-funded, well-organized opposition campaign  -- 1994, 2010
4. Cultural change to the detriment of the President's Party -- 1920, 1946, 1980
5. Economic meltdown -- 1930, 2008
6. Reverse wave undoing a previous wave.

My guess, based upon the last 100 years.

[Kamala]

If there's a so-called "wave," Lieburals, how come the Democrats haven't won back the House and Senate yet?

[Virginiá]

If there's a so-called "wave," Lieburals, how come the Democrats haven't won back the House and Senate yet?

+1

Kamala has done it again!

[PAK Man]

I'm pretty sure there weren't indications 2014 was going to be a wave until late summer of 2014.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I didn't realize it was now forum consensus that there will be a wave. Most people believe Republicans will retain the house.

You forgot:

WA-8
TX-23
PA-15
FL-26
CA-39
CA-21
CA-10
CA-25
MI-11

I'm not sure this is true.  Maybe it's time for a new poll; I'll start one.

[MarkD]

One bit of proof that a wave is already happening is the sheer number of Democrats who have announced they're running for the House, or who have filed with the FEC that they are running.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=269326.0

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The only democratic wave that is going happen is drunk hippie liberals surfing in Hawaii to comfort themselves after a disastrous 2018 midterm that gives the GOP a supermajority.

[DrScholl]

The only democratic wave that is going happen is drunk hippie liberals surfing in Hawaii to comfort themselves after a disastrous 2018 midterm that gives the GOP a supermajority.

The only way that happens is if there is cheating and judging from how low Trump is willing to go, there probably will be attempts. Some of you all will probably be out there stuffing ballot boxes, lol.

[Doimper]

Regardless of what happens, somebody is going to bump this thread in November 2018

[Pericles]

Right here.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo