Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Still won’t be enough to finally get the LDP out of office.

"There is no one else "

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tokyo Governor election will be July 5th 2020.  Koike will faces no real opposition with LDP and other opposition parties not running a candidate.  Only candidates running are fringe parties like PNHK, HRP, Far Right JFP (led by 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)  who also ran in 2016) and minor Leftist Olive Tree.

Does JFP have any connection to the various post-Ishihara excrescences (JRP 1.0, PFG, PJK, etc.) or is Sakurai his own man?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

An interesting if somewhat unrelated thing: how much does the bureaucratic regulations surrounding electioneering in Japan (the deposit costs, the limitations on campaigning, etc) contribute to the heavily pro-incumbent political culture of the country?

My understanding is: Enormously so. At the time that Abe first returned to power in 2012 I remember that being commented on as in fact the main reason why the LDP just kept on coming back come what may. Of course, the playing field has become even more structurally favorable to the LDP since then through things like the constant hookups and breakups of the various opposition forces, the persistence of the right-of-center "third pole", and the lurch to the right among younger voters coupled with the lowering of the voting age.

ETA: Incumbents also have various informal means of circumventing the tight campaigning regulations via the koenkai system that non-incumbents do not. We once had a poster called "koenkai" who, true to form for someone with that username, was an unapologetically pro-establishment evangelist for the administrative state. I think his avatar was R-NH.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B2%A1%E5%B1%B1%E7%9C%8C%E8%AD%B0%E4%BC%9A
The LDP domination of prefectural assemblies in Chugoku is so complete it's almost absurd.

Yep, Chuugoku is currently one of the LDP heartlands (and I think it has been for a while now). Abe himself is from the Shimonoseki area at the western tip of Honshu.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've always hated me some Abe, but I've never wished a condition this chronic or this painful on him. Definitely the end of an era for Japan, and it must be said that he has done a little good in addition to much bad (I'd definitely rather be a woman in the Japanese workforce now than in 2012, for instance, although my view is that "womenomics" was too little too late in terms of the toxicity of Japanese gender relations).

The Daily Beast is being pretty tasteless about this, using puns like "unable to stomach the job" and implying--perhaps correctly, but now really isn't the time to say it--that Abe's real concern is reducing his legal liability for this cabinet's corruption issues.

The factional issues in the LDP were at one time ideological, markedly and infamously so, but these days the whole party is pretty thoroughly captive to the Nippon Kaigi way of doing things.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I cannot stand Abe mostly because of his heterodox economic policies.  Unfortunately unless it is 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) there is very little chance LDP will change course on that front.

Would you still be willing to make money as a sex trafficker if you could get away with it, jaichind? (Note for newer posters: He actually did say this back in the day.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

What are the substantive arguments for and against the plan, as you understand them?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

The world will watch in anticipation as to how this plays out. Abe's continued efforts to amend the Constitution & allow nationalists in his cabinet have made him generally unpopular among the Japanese people, especially with the younger generations of voters who were raised on a pacifist, liberal education. And despite his party's strong grip on power, he managed to implement only a limited track-record. The effects of Abenomics aren't yet clear, & the public isn't yet ready to accept changes to Article 9.

You have it backward. Abbe was pretty popular among young people. It was the older groups that were most anti-Abbe

Yeah. Japan is similar to Israel in that younger people without a personal experience with serious existential threat from war tend to be more militaristic and more socially conservative than their parents and grandparents, not less.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

What are the substantive arguments for and against the plan, as you understand them?

See

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

On paper it is about being more "efficient" by reducing layers of government.  In practice it s a multi-step process of
a) Making Osaka at par with Tokyo and from there locking in JRP as long time ruling party of Osaka
b) Then push the East-West Japan differences and how the West has been underdeveloped relative to the East just like Osaka has been underdeveloped relative to Tokyo last few decades
c) Then make the argument that Osaka should be a second capital of Japan and capital of West Japan
d) JRP moves in and becomes the dominate party of West Japan

Now d) becomes a stretch but JRP is allowed to dream.

Interesting. I love peripheral Japan and think it's been screwed hard in the postwar era but I hate the JRP, so this'd be a tough call for me as an Osaka voter.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I remember that after the end of Junichiro Koizumi’s tenure as PM in 2006, there was a stretch of six years where a series of PMs all served for less than two years each. That situation lasted until Abe took the reigns again in 2012. Now that Abe is leaving again, is there a significant chance of a repeat of the 2006-2012 situation with PMs?

The 2006-2012 situation has recurred periodically throughout postwar Japan's political history (there was a similar revolving door between Nakasone and Koizumi in the late 80s and 90s). So I don't know but my heart says maybe.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What are Suga and Ishiba like? Ultra-hawkish economic wets like Abe, or would one or both of them be a change of pace?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Quick and dirty map of the LDP prefecture vote:



Red=three Suga votes, pink=two; dark green=three Ishiba votes, light green/chartreuse=two; gold=three Kishida votes, yellow=two; grey=one vote for each.

jaichind can correct any mistakes. The overall macro pattern seems to be that Suga crushed it in Eastern Japan--especially, but not only, the Tokyo area--whereas Western Japan was more competitive at least on the LDP-prefectural-elite level.

The home prefectures are Kanagawa (immediately south of Tokyo) for Suga, Tottori (dark green on the Sea of Japan coastline) for Ishiba, and Hiroshima (gold on the Inland Sea coastline) for Kishida. My guess is that local/regional clientelist networks and a mild favorite son effect probably explain the greater competitiveness of Western Japan as a whole.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How do you pronounce 'Suga'? Because we need a new title.

"Soo-gah", with the "oo" clipped and shortened. I propose something like "Gimme Some Suga, Baby". Or maybe we should start a new thread entirely?