Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[Vega]

With the LDP winning the election in a resounding fashion, it is time to see what the Fourth Abe Cabinet does while in power for the next four years, and whether Shinzo Abe will indeed be at the helm for all of it.

[jaichind]

Abe's uncertain grip on power

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Michael-Cucek/Abe-s-uncertain-grip-on-power?utm_content=buffer023cd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[jaichind]

Post election Yomiuri poll of party support

LDP     43 (+10) - standard post election, will decline over time
KP        4 (+1)
JRP       2(+1)
HP        5 (-3)
CDP     14 (+10)
SDP       1 (nc)
JCP       3 (nc)

[Tintrlvr]

Has there been any chatter or developments on the future of the opposition?

I think the opposition (or at least the left-opposition in the form of the CDP) is actually probably best served by staying divided; one of the big problems for the DPJ was always that its coalition was too fractious, such that it was unable to set forth what it stood for other than opposition to the LDP, which was never enough except when the LDP was catastrophically unpopular (and then led to three years of divided and feckless governance). A more ideologically unified opposition party stands to do better and carve out its own niche.

[Dereich]

Has there been any chatter or developments on the future of the opposition?

I think the opposition (or at least the left-opposition in the form of the CDP) is actually probably best served by staying divided; one of the big problems for the DPJ was always that its coalition was too fractious, such that it was unable to set forth what it stood for other than opposition to the LDP, which was never enough except when the LDP was catastrophically unpopular (and then led to three years of divided and feckless governance). A more ideologically unified opposition party stands to do better and carve out its own niche.

Would it though? It's not like the Japanese Socialist Party did much better for forty years before reforming into the DJP.

[Tintrlvr]

Has there been any chatter or developments on the future of the opposition?

I think the opposition (or at least the left-opposition in the form of the CDP) is actually probably best served by staying divided; one of the big problems for the DPJ was always that its coalition was too fractious, such that it was unable to set forth what it stood for other than opposition to the LDP, which was never enough except when the LDP was catastrophically unpopular (and then led to three years of divided and feckless governance). A more ideologically unified opposition party stands to do better and carve out its own niche.

Would it though? It's not like the Japanese Socialist Party did much better for forty years before reforming into the DJP.

The JSP was much more left-wing than the CDP is, and subject to stronger competition on the left by the JCP. And the JSP also was opposing the LDP in a period of almost continuous, rapid economic growth - it was always going to be difficult for an opposition party to make headway in good economic times.

And the successor to the JSP is the SDP, not the CDP (or the DPJ before it).

[Vega]

CDP chief Yukio Edano balks at merging with other parties.


Probably a smart move, though I won't be surprised if they change their stance on ex-DP Councillors.

[Lachi]

Koike will not be resigning:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/25/national/politics-diplomacy/koike-says-wont-resign-kibo-no-head-poor-election-showing/#.WfBrCMmpWUk

Also, we have some extremely sore losers in Aichi's 7th district:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/25/national/politics-diplomacy/aichi-voting-office-overwhelmed-calls-right-wing-campaign-alleges-foul-play-re-election-shiori-yamao/#.WfBrJ8mpWUk

[jaichind]

Post election bounce puts Abe Cabinet approval above water again

[jaichind]

It seems everyone is waiting on
a) Will Koike quit HP leadership and who will be in the HP leadership
b) What are the various heavyweight ex-DP MPs are going to do
c) What will the DP Upper House MPs going to do

All three will affect each other.  But no one is making any moves until there is some clarity on any of the issues above.

[jaichind]

Asahi post election poll has

Abe Cabinet approval 42(+2)/39(-1)

Party support

LDP  39
KP     4
JRP    2
HP     3
CDP  17
SDP   1
JCP    3

[Lachi]

As I have already posted, Koike has already stated that she will NOT step down.

[jaichind]

As I have already posted, Koike has already stated that she will NOT step down.

I know. But that could change any time.  Koike said as HP was being formed that she will NOT be the leader.  Then out of nowhere she came out and surprised her own people saying that she will lead HP.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So my understanding is that even though LDP-KP has the 2/3 majority it needs in both houses to pass its constitutional amendments through the Diet, it will still need to pass in a popular referendum. Have there been opinion polls on this? Are the people still generally pacifist despite consistently delivering supermajorities to revisionist parties? How would the referendum campaign shake out once it actually began? Would turnout be higher than the rather low GE turnout? Which sides would prefer higher/lower turnout?

[Dereich]

So my understanding is that even though LDP-KP has the 2/3 majority it needs in both houses to pass its constitutional amendments through the Diet, it will still need to pass in a popular referendum. Have there been opinion polls on this? Are the people still generally pacifist despite consistently delivering supermajorities to revisionist parties? How would the referendum campaign shake out once it actually began? Would turnout be higher than the rather low GE turnout? Which sides would prefer higher/lower turnout?

Komeito isn't really in favor of removing pacifism from the constitution and has dragged its feet and stalled whenever the issue came up in the past. I believe Komeito's reluctance to amend the constitution is the main reason it still hasn't happened, even though Abe has tried several times and had his super-majority before now. I'd think that they'll do the same thing this time around and stall until public pressure forces Abe to back down again.

[jaichind]

So my understanding is that even though LDP-KP has the 2/3 majority it needs in both houses to pass its constitutional amendments through the Diet, it will still need to pass in a popular referendum. Have there been opinion polls on this? Are the people still generally pacifist despite consistently delivering supermajorities to revisionist parties? How would the referendum campaign shake out once it actually began? Would turnout be higher than the rather low GE turnout? Which sides would prefer higher/lower turnout?

Polling is all over the place but I suspect it will be negative.  The way things work is the more Abe is for  something public opinion usually turns against it.   Also KP is not really on board. I am beginning to think nothing will happen on this.  Abe just wants the issue and will never take the risk of trying and getting totally humiliated if and when not all of LDP or KP is on board or is beaten badly in a referendum.   I think Abe's goal is to stay PM until 2021.  All this Constitutional change is a bunch of baloney.   

[jaichind]

Asahi post-election poll on Constitutional change on Clause 9.  For/Against 36/45.  I am sure if you change the wording on how it will change in theory you can get a majority for.  But it really depends.

[Silent Hunter]

Clause 9 is the one renouncing war of course.

[jaichind]

Japan's deputy PM says party won election 'thanks to North Korea'
Friday, October 27, 2017 01:38 AM
Tokyo (DPA) -- Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso on Friday tried to explain comments he had made attributing his party's election victory to North Korea.
"It's the government that decides how to address the series of threats from North Korea, so I believe the Japanese people chose the government or the combination of political parties that can best respond" to the matter, Aso told reporters on Friday. Aso, who also serves as finance minister, said on Thursday the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) resounding victory in Sunday's general election was "clearly partly thanks to North Korea."
Aso's remarks were "outrageous," said Akira Nagatsuma, a senior lawmaker of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. They suggested Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition "exploited" the North Korean nuclear threat for political gain. Abe's LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito Party won a major victory in Sunday's election for the powerful lower house. In August, Aso appeared to defend Adolf Hitler's motive for the genocide of Jews during World War II.
"Hitler, who killed millions of people, is no good even if his motive was right," Aso told lawmakers then.

[Lachi]

I'm surprised that no one has defected to another party yet. Unless it isn't being reported on.

[jaichind]

Party of Hope to forgo immediately naming Diet leader
Friday, October 27, 2017 03:22 AM
TOKYO, Oct. 27 Kyodo
The opposition Party of Hope, led by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike from outside the Diet, is planning not to pick a leader for its parliamentary operations until after the upcoming special Diet session starting Nov. 1, sources close to the party said Friday.
The special session is set to run for only about a week to take care of procedures following Sunday's House of Representatives election in which the Party of Hope performed poorly while the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe maintained a two-thirds majority.
The party absorbed the conservative wing of the collapsing Democratic Party ahead of the election, but ended up gaining fewer seats than the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which was formed to take on the liberal Democratic Party members who could not or would not join the Party of Hope.
Koike's party will hold a meeting of its lawmakers Friday afternoon to plan its next steps. She apologized to party members Wednesday for the party's disappointing performance in the election but insisted she wants to remain its leader.
She is likely to appoint former Democratic Party Secretary General Atsushi Oshima as both secretary general and policy chief, and make former Democratic Party member Hirofumi Ryu chief of Diet affairs, the sources said.
In the Diet vote for prime minister set for Nov. 1, the party is considering voting for former Democratic Party member Motohisa Furukawa in light of his relatively long career in parliament and previous Cabinet experience, the sources said.
Separately Friday, the leader of the still-extant Democratic Party said he will step down as soon as the rest of the party decides what to do about its regional branches and its remaining lawmakers in the House of Councillors.
Seiji Maehara made the remark at the outset of a meeting of the party's upper house members and those in the lower house who ran as independents in Sunday's election, having refrained from joining either the CDPJ or the Party of Hope.
"I am painfully aware of my responsibility. I will resign after determining a certain direction (for the party)," Maehara said.
In the meeting, the lawmakers are expected to deliver their verdict on Maehara's decision to attempt to essentially merge the Democratic Party with the Party of Hope after the House of Representatives was dissolved on Sept. 28.
Maehara, who had at that point been in charge of the party for less than a month, repeatedly urged Koike to run in the election so she could lead the party in the Diet.
But Koike refused either to run or to take on all of the Democratic Party's candidates, prompting the emergence of the CDPJ. The CDPJ ended up taking 55 seats to the Party of Hope's 50, both dwarfed by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party with 284 seats.

[jaichind]

I'm surprised that no one has defected to another party yet. Unless it isn't being reported on.

Me too.  I guses everyone is looking at what the Upper House DP MPs will do and who Koike puts in charge of HP.   If In the end Koike steps down or takes a nominal leadership of HP the the old DP Right will just take over HP completely and then go from there to figure out what to do next (like if HP will get an alliance with CDP and/or JRP)   What is also suprising is how few ex-DP independent MP have moved.  I guess they are wait and see as well. 

[jaichind]

Clause 9 is the one renouncing war of course.

Correct.  I am sure getting rid of Clause 9 will not pass the diet or a referendum. A version that could but seems less and less likely is to update Clause 9 saying Self Defense Force exists and is legal.   

[NewYorkExpress]

In other news...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/27/japanese-student-sues-over-schools-order-to-dye-hair-black

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Do any local experts know if this 18 year-old girl has a case?

[jaichind]

It seems there are pressure for on Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) to resign as JRP leader given the JRP poor performance, especially in the Osaka district seats.