Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

When do you think Abe likely holds the next election then?

It is either early 2021 or perhaps even July 2020.  With the Olympics pushed back one year there is a real risk that Abe becomes a lame duck PM.  I think within the LDP the view of Abe as an election asset is declining so Abe's ability to get a unprecedented 4th team in Sept 2021 or to influence his successor is now in doubt even as the LDP leadership are still 100% behind Abe.  What Abe has to do is to show that he is an election winner which makes a July 2020 election possible.  If Abe does not go that route then an election in early 2021 would be the only other option.  For sure Abe has to get the next lower house election done well before the Sept 2021 LDP prez election and ergo well in advance of Oct 2021 when it is due legally.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

When do you think Abe likely holds the next election then?

It is either early 2021 or perhaps even July 2020.  With the Olympics pushed back one year there is a real risk that Abe becomes a lame duck PM.  I think within the LDP the view of Abe as an election asset is declining so Abe's ability to get a unprecedented 4th team in Sept 2021 or to influence his successor is now in doubt even as the LDP leadership are still 100% behind Abe.  What Abe has to do is to show that he is an election winner which makes a July 2020 election possible.  If Abe does not go that route then an election in early 2021 would be the only other option.  For sure Abe has to get the next lower house election done well before the Sept 2021 LDP prez election and ergo well in advance of Oct 2021 when it is due legally.

Isn't it the case that the Japanese opposition would have a harder time the less time they have until the next election?

[jaichind]

Isn't it the case that the Japanese opposition would have a harder time the less time they have until the next election?

Agreed on principle.  Abe surprised DPJ and JRP in 2014 so they could not come up with viable candidates and work out tactical alliances.  In 2017 to some extent DP was sort of ready but the opposition was in the middle of a realignment. 

This time around it seems for competitive seats CDP DPP SDP and JCP are mostly on the same page which candidates will take on the LDP-KP 1-on-1.  Main problem now is trying to get RS to come along.  DPP's Ozawa which was in the same party as RS leader Tarō Yamamoto during the 2017-2019 period under PLP and then LP has been tasks to work things out with Yamamoto.  One big unknown will be where outside of Osaka JRP will run and what impact that will have on competitive seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't it the case that the Japanese opposition would have a harder time the less time they have until the next election?

Agreed on principle.  Abe surprised DPJ and JRP in 2014 so they could not come up with viable candidates and work out tactical alliances.  In 2017 to some extent DP was sort of ready but the opposition was in the middle of a realignment. 

This time around it seems for competitive seats CDP DPP SDP and JCP are mostly on the same page which candidates will take on the LDP-KP 1-on-1.  Main problem now is trying to get RS to come along.  DPP's Ozawa which was in the same party as RS leader Tarō Yamamoto during the 2017-2019 period under PLP and then LP has been tasks to work things out with Yamamoto.  One big unknown will be where outside of Osaka JRP will run and what impact that will have on competitive seats.

Based off the best knowledge we have rn, what are the most competitive seats? I assume Tokyo-1 is one of them?

[jaichind]

Based off the best knowledge we have rn, what are the most competitive seats? I assume Tokyo-1 is one of them?

There are a lot of them since the role that JCP would play will make a fairly large difference.  Out of the 226 seats the LDP-KP won out of 289 in 2017 I count 49 of them that could fall to the united opposition  and another 6 more that could fall to JRP.  Out of these I would say 5 are almost certain to fall to the united opposition and another 3 are certain to fall to JRP.

On the flip side LDP-KP could re-capture up to 7 seats from the opposition with 2 of them certain to go to LDP (mostly due to opposition defections to LDP.)

A lot of the variably comes down how well the united opposition vote fuse and the role JRP would play to split the LDP and/or the anti-LDP vote.  Tokyo 1st is actually considered fairly safe for CDP who should hold it unless JCP runs a candidate which seems unlikely.

Tokyo, just like 2017, will be a big unknown as it seems that the JRP will run a lot of candidates this time with fairly unknown impact on if they take more votes away from LDP or from the united opposition.

[jaichind]

There will be a by-election in 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district April 26 due to the death of the LDP incumbent back in Dec 2019.  The opposition will run a united front candidate 田中健(Tanaka Ken) who is a DPP MLA in the prefecture with the backing of CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP to take on LDP.   田中健(Tanaka Ken) had run in 2017 as HP candidate but lost to the LDP incumbent.  Just to troll the united opposition PNHK will run a candidate with the exact same name (田中健(Tanaka Ken)) who is a minor ex-DPJ politician at the district level in Tokyo but have since joined PNHK.

In 2017 it was

LDP   55.87%
HP     33.42%
JCP    10.70%

PR vote for this district in 2017 was

LDP  31.86%
KP    14.44%         
HRP   0.36%
JRP    4.01%
HP    25.45%
CDP  15.65%
SDP   0.84%
JCP    7.40%

On paper if the joint opposition candidate can consolidate the old HP, CDP, SDP and JCP PR vote he could squeak out an victory if the PNHK candidate can pick up some JRP and dissident LDP PR voters.  In reality a good part of the 2017 HP PR vote will go LDP and with lower turnout in a by-election the best the United opposition candidate can do is to keep it close.   On thing going for the united opposition candidate is that the LDP candidate will not be the son of the old LDP incumbent but a local LDP MLA in the prefecture assembly.  At least the LDP will not have the sympathy factor on its side and the LDP MLA will have to work hard to get the full support of the old LDP MP support network.

[jaichind]

It seems in the 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by e-elections the PNHK tactic of nominating a candidate with the same name as the united opposition candidate is an attempt to disrupt the election system.  This is because in Japanese elections there are no pre-printed ballots and instead the voter just writes down the name of the candidate they wish to vote for.  Now the election commission is stuck on how to count a vote for 田中健(Tanaka Ken) since there are two of them running.

[Tintrlvr]

It seems in the 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by e-elections the PNHK tactic of nominating a candidate with the same name as the united opposition candidate is an attempt to disrupt the election system.  This is because in Japanese elections there are no pre-printed ballots and instead the voter just writes down the name of the candidate they wish to vote for.  Now the election commission is stuck on how to count a vote for 田中健(Tanaka Ken) since there are two of them running.

This seems like a problem they must have encountered before in 70 years of democratic elections...

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/30/national/politics-diplomacy/name-kanji-pair-elected-saga-poll-voters-fail-differentiate-incumbent-challenger/#.Xoi8jFMpAwA



I guess the election commission will do something similar

[jaichind]

Now that Japan is all done with the Unified Local elections in 2019 plus a bunch of prefecture assembly elections in late 2019 I went through all prefecture assemblies can categorized those elected into LDP+ (LDP and other non-KP allies, pro-LDP independents, or LDP rebels), KP, OPPN (non-JCP Center-Left opposition forces - CDP DPP SDP and allies), TP (Third Pole - Center-Right opposition forces - JRP, TPFA, NPD, TCJ and allies), and JCP.

The most recent prefecture assemblies were all elected in April 2019 except for

岩手Iwate) Sept 2019
宮城(Miyagi) Oct 2019
福島(Fukushima) Nov 2019
茨城(Ibaraki) Dec 2018
東京(Tokyo) June 2017
沖縄(Okinawa) June 2016

Pref.     LDP+      KP        LDP++     OPPN      TP           JCP
北海道 53.00%   8.00%   61.00%   36.00%   0.00%   3.00%  Hokkaido
青森    64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   22.92%   0.00%   6.25%  Aomori
岩手    29.17%   2.08%   31.25%   52.08%  10.42%  6.25%  Iwate
宮城    55.93%   6.78%   62.71%   25.42%   3.39%   8.47%  Miyagi
秋田    62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33%  Akita
山形    65.12%   2.33%   67.44%   27.91%   0.00%   4.65%  Yamagata
福島    53.45%   6.90%   60.34%   31.03%   0.00%   8.62%  Fukushima
茨城    80.65%   6.45%   87.10%    9.68%    0.00%   3.23%  Ibaraki
栃木    72.00%   6.00%   78.00%   18.00%   2.00%   2.00%  Tochigi
群馬    70.00%   6.00%   76.00%   20.00%   0.00%   4.00%  Gunma
埼玉    53.76%   9.68%   63.44%   30.11%   0.00%   6.45%  Saitama
千葉    60.64%   8.51%   69.15%   27.66%   1.06%   2.13%  Chiba
神奈川 52.38%   7.62%   60.00%   35.24%   0.00%   4.76%  Kanagawa
山梨    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Yamanashi
東京    18.11% 18.11%   36.22%     4.72% 44.09% 14.96%  Tokyo
新潟    62.26%   3.77%   66.04%   32.08%   0.00%   1.89%  Niigata
富山    85.00%   2.50%   87.50%     7.50%   0.00%   5.00%  Toyama
石川    74.42%   4.65%   79.07%   18.60%   0.00%   2.33%  Ishikawa
福井    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Fukui
長野    50.88% 15.79%   66.67%   22.81%   1.75%   8.77%  Nagano
岐阜    73.91%   4.35%   78.26%   19.57%   0.00%   2.17%  Gifu
静岡    61.76%   7.35%   69.12%   29.41%   0.00%   1.47%  Shizuoka
愛知    57.84%   5.88%   63.73%   34.31%   1.96%   0.00%  Aichi
三重    50.98%   3.92%   54.90%   43.14%   0.00%   1.96%  Mie
滋賀    47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   38.64%   0.00%   9.09%  Shiga
京都    50.00%   8.33%   58.33%   18.33%   3.33% 20.00%  Kyoto
大阪    18.18% 17.05%   35.23%     2.27% 60.23%   2.27%  Osaka
兵庫    50.00% 15.12%   65.12%   18.60% 10.47%   5.81%  Hyōgo
奈良    62.79%   6.98%   69.77%   11.63%   9.30%   9.30%  Nara
和歌山 69.05%   7.14%   76.19%   11.90%   2.38%   9.52%  Wakayama
鳥取    60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   28.57%   0.00%   2.86%  Tottori
島根    75.68%   5.41%   81.08%   13.51%   0.00%   5.41%  Shimane
岡山    72.73%   9.09%   81.82%   14.55%   0.00%   3.64%  Okayama
広島    65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   21.88%   1.56%   1.56%  Hiroshima
山口    68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26%  Yamaguchi
徳島    68.42%   5.26%   73.68%   21.05%   0.00%   5.26%  Tokushima
香川    68.29%   4.88%   73.17%   21.95%   0.00%   4.88%  Kagawa
愛媛    65.96%   4.26%   70.21%   10.64% 17.02%   2.13%  Ehime
高知    59.46%   8.11%   67.57%   18.92%   0.00% 13.51%  Kōchi
福岡    60.92% 11.49%   72.41%   25.29%   0.00%   2.30%  Fukuoka
佐賀    76.32%   5.26%   81.58%   13.16%   0.00%   5.26%  Saga
長崎    69.57%   6.52%   76.09%   21.74%   0.00%   2.17%  Nagasaki
熊本    81.63%   6.12%   87.76%   10.20%   0.00%   2.04%  Kumamoto
大分    53.49%   6.98%   60.47%   34.88%   0.00%   4.65%  Ōita
宮崎    66.67%   7.69%   64.36%   20.51%   0.00%   5.13%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 76.47%   5.88%   82.35%   11.76%   3.92%   1.96%  Kagoshima
沖縄    31.25%   8.33%   39.58%   43.75%   4.17% 12.50%  Okinawa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total   58.27%   7.95%   66.22%   22.99%   5.60%   5.19%  (straight average)
Total   52.75%   9.44%   62.19%   22.11%  10.26%  5.44%  (weight by population)

LDP-KP dominates all prefecture assemblies except for 東京(Tokyo) (dominated by Third Pole TPFA), 大阪(Osaka) (dominated by Third pole JRP), 岩手(Iwate) (dominated by pro-Ozawa forces) and 沖縄(Okinawa) (dominated by anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance)

LDP utterly dominates rural prefecture while Third Pole parties are stronger in urban areas.  JCP stronger in urban areas like 東京(Tokyo), 京都(Kyoto) as well as old JCP stronghold of 高知(Kōchi) and of course anti-base 沖縄(Okinawa). OPPN is stronger in old DPJ strongholds of 愛知(Aichi), 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga), and 大分(Ōita) (which is more of an old SDP stronghold.)   In old DPJ stronghold of 北海道(Hokkaido) the local non-LDP vote continue to be split between OPPN and Third Pole regionalist NPD giving the LDP a strong edge in terms of seats.   Within the OPPN bloc, CDP tends to be stronger in urban and Northern areas plus especially 北海道(Hokkaido) while DPP tends to be stronger in rural and Southern areas.

Part of the reason for LDP domination in rural prefectures is that a lot of the seats elected in rural prefecture tend to have a lot of 1- or 2- member districts which are easily dominated by the LDP whereas urban prefecture tend to have a lot more 3- 4- or even larger districts where non-LDP parties tend to wins some seats even as the LDP will win the most seats.

In terms of seats elected out of a total of 2679 seats it was

LDP        1302
KP           206
PGR            1 (奈良(Nara) based LDP ally)
JA               1 (福岡(Fukuoka) based LDP ally)
TPFA          49 (東京(Tokyo) pro-Koike party)
JRP            71
TCJ              1 (愛知(Aichi) based Right wing DPJ splinter - allied with JRP)
LPI              5 (岩手(Iwate) anti-Ozawa DPJ splinter and LDP ally)
DPP         123
CDP         135
Minor Left  10
SDP           32
JCP          139
Ind.         604

For CDP and DPP totals I included those elected under the banner of their local affiliates which might not be named DPP or CDP exactly.

Out of 604 independents

257 caucused with LDP or LDP allied blocs or are LDP rebels
7 caucused with KP
24 caucused with Third Pole parties or allied blocs   
316 caucused with OPPN parties or allied blocs
 
A lot of the old DPJ incumbents ran this time as independents with de facto or de jure backing of a combination of CDP DPJ and SDP as a result a lot of elected independents end up caucusing with OPPN blocs.    

The same chart as of Mid 2018 before this latest round of prefecture elections starting with 茨城(Ibaraki) in Dec 2018

Pref.     LDP+      KP        LDP++     OPPN      TP           JCP
Total   57.80%   8.08%   65.87%   22.40%    5.95%   5.77%   (straight average)
Total   52.88%   9.62%   62.50%   21.08%  10.30%   6.12%   (weight by population)

Other than JRP making large gains against LDP in  大阪(Osaka), the LDP gaining ground and JRP mostly disappearing in rural prefectures relative to 2015. One exception to this is 愛媛(Ehime) where the local JRP was fairly strong in 2015 and made even further gains from both the LDP and OPPN.   JRP also retained some strength in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 奈良(Nara) mostly due to their close proximity to 大阪(Osaka).  In 北海道(Hokkaido) LDP also makes gains relative to 2015 since the DPJ-NPD alliance of 2015 broke up with NPD not backing CDP but backing LDP in some seats which shifted the balance further toward the LDP.

Non-JCP OPPN gaining ground in the Tokyo suburb Kanto regions of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), and 神奈川(Kanagawa) while also losing ground in rural prefectures to LDP.  JCP lost ground across the board relative to 2015 which makes sense as 2014-2015 is pretty must peak JCP strength in the post 1990s era.

[PSOL]

How have the parties reacted to the pandemic? Are they shifting blame around, or are they working on minimizing the deaths to their constituents?

[jaichind]

Latest polls has Abe cabinet approval dropping although it is only slightly below water.



LDP support dropping


But so is CDP


It seems overall trust of institutions are falling (cabinet, ruling party, main opposition party) 

[jaichind]

 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election voting over.  Race called for LDP over CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP joint candidate and PNHK.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election voting over.  Race called for LDP over CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP joint candidate and PNHK.

what was the margin?

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election voting over.  Race called for LDP over CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP joint candidate and PNHK.

what was the margin?

Count in progress which is ultra early.  Turnout was low given the virus situation which of course plays to LDP advantage.  Kyodo exit polls has it

LDP candidate getting 84.7% of the LDP vote, 84.8% of the KP vote, and 42.4% of independents
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP getting 86.8% of the CDP vote, 81.0$ of the DPP vote, 83.8% of the JCP vote, 100% of the SDP vote, and 50.7% of the independents vote

The CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP lead over LDP 50.7-42.4 of independents points to a large LDP victory as many anti-LDP voters identify as independents

Exit poll also show that approval/disapproval of government response to the virus as 49.3/43.2       

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This seems to be a decenr end result for Abe Shinzo I guess, taken as a whole.

[jaichind]

With 56% of the vote counted it is

LDP-KP                    65.4%
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP    34.4%
PNHK                        0.1%

It seems PNHK's maneuvers to nominate a candidate with the same name as the CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate backfired as it  highlighted the issue and voters made sure to vote for 田中　健(42) which is the age of the CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate versus 54.  The Japanese election commission recommended voters write down the of the candidate to distinguish between the two same named candidates.

Otherwise low turnout clearly his helping LDP even though I suspect the count will shift toward CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate later in the count.

For reference in 2017 it was

LDP   55.87%
HP     33.42%
JCP    10.70%

PR vote for this district in 2017 was

LDP  31.86%
KP    14.44%        
HRP   0.36%
JRP    4.01%
HP    25.45%
CDP  15.65%
SDP   0.84%
JCP    7.40%

[jaichind]

This seems to be a decenr end result for Abe Shinzo I guess, taken as a whole.

Yep, this might reignite talks of an early election.  Even if approval of government on the virus crisis is lukewarm at best, the LDP is seen as the party that gets things done and CDP is seen as the party of ideals.  In a crisis you are going to gravitate toward "get things done" party.  Low turnout of course helps as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This seems to be a decenr end result for Abe Shinzo I guess, taken as a whole.

Yep, this might reignite talks of an early election.  Even if approval of government on the virus crisis is lukewarm at best, the LDP is seen as the party that gets things done and CDP is seen as the party of ideals.  In a crisis you are going to gravitate toward "get things done" party.  Low turnout of course helps as well.

Two things came to mind as well.
With corona going around, the atmosphere of Japanese elections (which has restrictions on campaigning not seen in most other countries) is going to make it even harder for the opposition to get its ground game working properly and convinced needed swing voters.
Additionally, the opposition's ability to work together optimally will likely be hampered. It's easier for LDP-KP to serve as an effective fighting vehicle than CDP-DPP-SDP-others.

[jaichind]

With 95% of the vote counted it is

LDP-KP                    63.7%
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP    33.4%
PNHK                        1.5%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch. That swing. The LDP victory margin has more than doubled since 2017.

[jaichind]

All votes counted 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election (turnout was 34.1%)

LDP-KP                    61.3%    66,881
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP    35.4%    38,566
PNHK                        1.6%      1,747

For reference in 2017 it was

LDP   55.87%       96,243
HP     33.42%      57,581
JCP    10.70%      18,437

PR vote for this district in 2017 was

LDP  31.86%
KP    14.44%       
HRP   0.36%
JRP    4.01%
HP    25.45%
CDP  15.65%
SDP   0.84%
JCP    7.40%

[Quincy Kelley]

The question is how long will Abe remain as Prime Minister ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The question is how long will Abe remain as Prime Minister ?

He could still run for yet another term as LDP President, and is perhaps even very likely to do so.
This could mean he is still PM on New Years 2024.

[jaichind]

Latest Mainichi poll has surge in support for JRP.

It has relatively low marks for Abe in handling the crisis and high marks for key governors.  

Which politician has performed the best in this crisis

Osaka JRP governor 吉村洋文 (Yoshimura Hirofumi)   32.7%
Tokyo TPFA govrnor 小池百合子 (Koike)                     10.3%
Abe                                                                        5.9%
Hokkaido LDP governor 鈴木直道 (Suzuki Naomichi)    4.5%
KP leader 山口那津男 (Yamaguchi Natsuo)                   1.7%
JCP leader in the Upper House 小池晃 (Koike Akira)     1.2%

This positive performance perception for Osaka JRP governor 吉村洋文 (Yoshimura Hirofumi) had led to a surge in support for JRP

Party support

LDP     30 (-4)
KP        5 (+2)
JRP     11 (+6)
DPP      2 (+1)
CDP      9 (--)
RS        2 (-1)
JCP       5 (+1)

with the JRP surging ahead of CDP in terms of overall support.  The JRP surge seems to be coming from LDP and independents.

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval is  40(-4)/45(+3)