Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

So with the Hawk Right wing of HP leaving and Koike totally marginalized with hints that she should leave HP, HP is now pretty much the DP Right of Sept 2017 which now is looking to form an alliance with DP (Upper House wing of Sept 2017 DP), and CDP (Left DP of Sept 2017 DP.)

Main problem for this CDP-DP-HP alliance if it gets formed in 2019 Upper House elections is how it can get JCP not to run in single member seats.  If they can pull that off then 2019 Upper House elections could be competitive.   

Easy solution to that problem: CDP shouldn't entertain such an alliance, and instead come to some agreement with the JCP.

Well the risk there is HP then runs in single member FPTP districts in alliance with JRP and splits the anti-LDP vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Aso is such a deadweight on Abe. You'd think in a normal country he would be dropped after the third time he has to walk back "ACTUALLY HITLER WAS KEWL" statements...

[jaichind]

ROC Media house UDN had a special about JCP.  It had some interesting pictures on how JCP have evolved over the years, especially JCP of pre-WWII and JCP today. 

This is a good contrast between pre-WWI JCP and JCP of today


Pre-WWII JCP posters


JCP ads of today

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval rating in free-fall again as it goes under water under pressure of the revival of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal.  Abe pretty much lost all the ground he gained by his Nov 2017 election victory.  He is now most likely worse than even odds of winning the Sep 2018 LDP Prez election.

[jaichind]

Of course one still have to wait a month or two to see what rabbits Abe pulls out of his hat.  He has been "doomed" before in Summer of 2015 and Summer 2017 and both times managed to come back.

[jaichind]

NTV poll on support for LDP Prez election in Sept 2018

(1) 安倍晋三(Abe)                       14.1%
(2) 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)          24.0%  (leader of Ishiba faction)
(3) 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          7.0%  (leader of Kishida faction)
(4) 小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)  21.2 %  (no faction, aligned with Hosoda faction)
(5) 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)               3.5 %  (member of Aso faction)
(6) 野田聖子(Noda Seiko)             4.2 %

If Abe were to fall apart most likely 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will win.  小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō) does not have enough seniority to win within LDP MPs at this time despite his popularity. 

[jaichind]

http://www.asahi.com/politics/yoron/

Has Asahi historical data on Cabinet approval and also has it broken by gender and age groups.  This time Abe Cabinet approval is down to a record low 31/48.  There is a gender gap of around 13%.  This most recent drop in Abe cabinet approval seems to have erased most of the age gap as approval for age 29 and below fell 20% as other age group tend to fell around 8%-12% range.

[jaichind]

Party support curve.  LDP takes a small hit but nothing massive.



Using the approval curve for Abe Cabinet Aoki index is around 73 (39+34).  Back in Late July Aoki Index fell to 64 (33+31). Around late October 2017 when Abe won the general election the Aoki index was around 80 (43+37).  If Abe can keep it Aoki index above 60 he should be safe for now although he would be in grave danger in Sept 2018 LDP Prez race.  If his Aoki index were to fall below 60 then there will be moves with LDP to get rid of him ASAP.

[Lachi]

It seems that compared to historical opposition approval, CDP seems to be holding up pretty well compared to the old Democratic parties.

[jaichind]

It seems that compared to historical opposition approval, CDP seems to be holding up pretty well compared to the old Democratic parties.

Correct.  The last time DPJ was able to sustain this level of support was in the Summer of 2015 when Abe was in a bad patch.  It did not last that long.  CDP seems to be generating a lot of support (relative to post-2012 DPJ and DP) without having LDP/Abe being in trouble.  On the flip side, when support for LDP does fall it does not seem to add to CDP support.  So the target electorate of CDP is much further away from LDP than in the 2012-2017 period with DPJ/DP relative to LDP.

[jaichind]

NTV polling history of Abe Cabinet support/opposition has a breakdown of reasons for opposition


The dark purple is "I do not trust PM Abe" which has surged in summer of 2017 and stayed there.  It is at a all time high.

As for reasons to support Abe Cabinet


"I trust PM Abe' which is dark brown which was never that high has fallen to low single digits.  As always "There is no one else"(medium yellow) is the largest reasons for support for Abe Cabinet.

[jaichind]

More polls (mostly those with LDP lean) came in that were not that bad for Abe Cabinet in absolute terms but in terms of change from previous poll of said pollsters were significant and the Abe cabinet approval curve now approaching Summer of 2017 levels.

[Frodo]

Abe cabinet approval rating in free-fall again as it goes under water under pressure of the revival of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal.  Abe pretty much lost all the ground he gained by his Nov 2017 election victory.  He is now most likely worse than even odds of winning the Sep 2018 LDP Prez election.

His best hope now is for North Korea to start rattling its nuclear saber again, producing that rally-'round-the-flag effect that saved him last time. 

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval rating in free-fall again as it goes under water under pressure of the revival of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal.  Abe pretty much lost all the ground he gained by his Nov 2017 election victory.  He is now most likely worse than even odds of winning the Sep 2018 LDP Prez election.

His best hope now is for North Korea to start rattling its nuclear saber again, producing that rally-'round-the-flag effect that saved him last time. 

Correct.  Trump meeting with DPRK's Kim also uncut Abe at home showing him up as out of sync with Trump on DPRK strategy.   It does not have to be DPRK.  A nicely timed conflict with PRC or ROK over some of the disputed islands would also help Abe nicely.  In many way the current LDP plans for Constitutional changes that legitimatizes SDF might be the trigger that might get Abe such an external conflict.  Of course another things that helps Abe is that his main LDP rival 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) does not have good relationships with other LDP factions.  So as long as Abe is "borderline" in terms of public support he might narrowly win the  Sept 2018 LDP Prez contest.

[jaichind]

It seems that HP and DP will merge and the new name of the party would be .... DPJ.

A history of DPJ YP JRP splits and mergers are as following

2010 YP split from LDP with some DPJ rebels joining
2012 JRP formed with ORA at its core plus a bunch of LDP DPJ and YP rebels
2014 pro-JRP faction of YP UP splits from YP.  Far Hawk Right faction of JRP PFG splits from JRP.  UP and JRP merges into JIP.  YP disbands with some members joining JRP or PFG
2015 anti-DPJ faction and mostly the old ORA core of JIP ORA splits from JIP.  JIP left with mostly ex-DPJ ex-YP members. PFG renames itself PJK
2016 JIP merges with DPJ into DP.  ORA renames itself JRP (again).  
2017 HP is created as LDP splinter.  DP Right faction merges into HP.  DP Left faction splits into CDP.  Most of what is left of PJK merges into HP
2018 ex-PJK parts of HP will most likely rejoin PJK or form a new party.  HP and DP merges into DPJ.

[Lachi]

CDP will still fly high above them imo. I don't think this merger will help either the Kibo wing or the DP wing.

[jaichind]

Latest NTV poll has Abe approval/disapproval at record lows given the recent resurgence of the various Abe scandals.  26.7(-3.6)/53.4 (+0.4).  Other pollsters has it at 30s.  

LDP-KP support is still holding up

LDP   33.4 (-1.1)
CDP     9.5 (-0.8 )
KP       4.0 (+0.3)
JCP      3.4 (-0.5)
JRP      2.2 (+0.9)
DP       1.2 (-0.8 )
SDP     0.9 (-0.8 )
HP       0.7 (-0.2)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What has happened to DP politicians in the upper house and prefectural legislatures? Have any gone over to CDP?

[jaichind]

What has happened to DP politicians in the upper house and prefectural legislatures? Have any gone over to CDP?

A few did in the Upper House but most did not.  In Local prefectures it is the some urban area DP members did move to CDP.

[jaichind]

In Tokyo 練馬区議会 (Nerima Ward) Assembly) by-elections is instructive of how level of support have changed.  Turnout is low which should have helped LDP.

2017 Tokyo Prefecture elections
LDP           19.6%
TPFA         35.3%
KP            14.3%
DP            14.0%
JCP           11.2%
Minor Left    5.6%

Now in the by-election where 10 candidates ran for 5 seats (2 LDP 1 JCP 1 CDP and 1 Minor Left got elected)
LDP          34.5%  (includes one LDP rebel)
Anti-NHK    4.7%  (fringe Far Right anti-NHK party)
TPFA         19.3%
CDP          15.8%
JCP           12.6%
Minor Left  13.1%



TPFA losing support fast and is not helped by low turnout.  LDP+ bloc gained from 2017 most because of low turnout was expected.  JCP gaining a bit not a surprise with low turnout.   Main shock is the CDP and Minor Left performance, especially with low turnout.  

[jaichind]

With this level of support for Abe Cabinet, if the LDP is serious about Constitutional reform then they have to dump Abe in Sept 2018.  There seems to be no way, currently, for the Japanese electorate to vote for any change in the Constitution with Abe at the driving wheel. 

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/16/national/politics-diplomacy/former-prime-minister-koizumi-sees-embattled-abe-quitting-june-magazine/#.WtSCsy7wYuU

Old LDP PM Koizumi says Abe most likely quits in June when the Diet session is over.  Predicts that if he tries to run for re-election for LDP Prez in Sept 2018 he is likely to be defeated and even if he wins he will lead LDP to a defeat in 2019 Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

Abe approval dropping again. Next week or two will determine if he will drop below Summer of 2017 levels in which he might have to go ASAP.

[Lachi]

Who would be the next leader after Abe goes? Omura? Okada?

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

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