Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

LDP Minister of Defense and possible candidate for LDP Prez race 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) indicated that he expected a snap election in October to get it out of the way before the 2021 Olympics.  In other news KP seems to be against a snap election this early but most likely if the LDP faction leaders agree it the LDP will have its way on this.

[Lachi]

https://twitter.com/office50824963/status/1303945224029220864?s=20

Edano wins leadership vote as expected

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/office50824963/status/1303945224029220864?s=20

Edano wins leadership vote as expected

He wins 107-42


Also for party name CDP wins 94-54 over DP (Democratic Party)

[jaichind]

With Abe resigning even the approval of government of repose to COVID-19 has gone up

[jaichind]

With more than half of the 141 prefectural chapter votes decided it is

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  has 52, 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  has 27, 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) has 8

[jaichind]

Out of the 141 prefecture chapter votes it is so far

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)     66
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)      35
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)    10

[Lachi]

Landslide win for Suga
Suga: 377
Kishida: 89
Ishiba: 68

terrible result for Ishiba

[Logical]

Results for prefecture chapters
Suga: 89
Ishiba: 42
Kishida: 10

Results for LDP parliamentarians
Suga: 288
Kishida: 79
Ishiba: 26

Ishiba is really unpopular among his colleagues and LDP elites.

[jaichind]

Results for prefecture chapters
Suga: 89
Ishiba: 42
Kishida: 10

Results for LDP parliamentarians
Suga: 288
Kishida: 79
Ishiba: 26

Ishiba is really unpopular among his colleagues and LDP elites.

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) actually did better than I predicted in the MP vote  My prediction was more based on what the the faction leaders had indicated they would recommend. 

Back in 2012 Ishiba lost to Abe 1-on-1 108-89 in the MP vote.  What is different this time is Abe had since built a much stronger alliance system with the various factions to deliver this landslide victory.

My guess for LDP Prez vote

                                            MP            LDP Chapter vote            Total
菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          325                      77                       402
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)             22                      56                        78     
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           47                       8                         55     

[jaichind]

二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro), leader of the 二階(Toshihiro) faction reappointed as LDP General Secretary.  It was his support that made Suga's victory beyond doubt and he is getting his reward for backing the winner.

[jaichind]

Distribution of the LDP prefecture chapter vote. Each LDP prefecture chapter gets 3 vote.  Most prefecture held primaries to determine the distribution of their 3 votes.  



Suga strongest in the Greater Tokyo area

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Quick and dirty map of the LDP prefecture vote:



Red=three Suga votes, pink=two; dark green=three Ishiba votes, light green/chartreuse=two; gold=three Kishida votes, yellow=two; grey=one vote for each.

jaichind can correct any mistakes. The overall macro pattern seems to be that Suga crushed it in Eastern Japan--especially, but not only, the Tokyo area--whereas Western Japan was more competitive at least on the LDP-prefectural-elite level.

The home prefectures are Kanagawa (immediately south of Tokyo) for Suga, Tottori (dark green on the Sea of Japan coastline) for Ishiba, and Hiroshima (gold on the Inland Sea coastline) for Kishida. My guess is that local/regional clientelist networks and a mild favorite son effect probably explain the greater competitiveness of Western Japan as a whole.

[jaichind]

Chinese language news media are saying 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) most likely will be made the Chief Cabinet Secretary.  If so then 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) might be the front runner for the LDP Prez after Suga moves on.  I think 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) jumped the gun when he said that he is sure that there will be an early election in October.  That damaged him.  Not sure if he is still in the running but the Chinese language press clearly thinks he is.

[jaichind]

2018 LDP Prez election Abe-Ishiba vote margin for LDP grassroots voters.  Red is where Ishiba is ahead and Blue is where Abe is ahead.  Pattern pretty similar to LDP chapter results this time

[jaichind]

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) clearly over performed in the MP vote.  The number of votes he got well exceeded those in his how 岸田(Kishida) faction. He was able to eat into a lot of those MPs that were not associated with any faction.   I figured they will go with Suga but it seems 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) got a bunch of them.  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) got only his faction's MP and not much else beyond that.  It is amazing how Abe was able to turn the entire party's MP outside his faction against him even though 8 years ago he was reasonably popular with LDP MPs.

[Silent Hunter]

How do you pronounce 'Suga'? Because we need a new title.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How do you pronounce 'Suga'? Because we need a new title.

"Soo-gah", with the "oo" clipped and shortened. I propose something like "Gimme Some Suga, Baby". Or maybe we should start a new thread entirely?

[CumbrianLefty]

How do you pronounce 'Suga'? Because we need a new title.

Well given the age of the new PM (72) we might need to change it again before too long

I thought Japan was moving away from gerontocracy?

[jaichind]

Go2senkyo poll on party support (telephone part)

LDP    31.4 (+1.8 )
KP       4.2 (+1.1)
JRP      4.1 (-0.4)
PNHK   0.2 (-0.2)
DPP      0.8 (-0.3)
CDP     8.9 (-1.8 )
RS       0.9 (-0.2)
SDP     0.6 (-0.2)
JCP      4.9 (-0.4)

Clear rise in LDP-KP support at the expense of everyone else



PR vote (telephone)

LDP    38.2 (-8.7)
KP       6.3  (-0.7)
PNHK   0.7 (-2.8 )
JRP      9.4 (-3.1)
DPP     1.2 (-0.1)
CDP   18.5 (+3.3)
RS       1.4 (-1.3)
SDP     1.1 (-0.5)
JCP      6.0 (-1.3)

I think the Aug poll had some weird results so the diff are really bizarre but this PR poll gives one a better sense how the PR vote will go.  Of course one still have to shift some LDP PR votes over to KP PR as part of the KP voters "hiding out" as LDP voters due to social stigma.

[CumbrianLefty]

New thread ahoy, maybe time to lock this one?