Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

LDP has decide to go with the "emergency" procedure for Sept 14 LDP Prez election.  It will be 395 LDP MPs each getting a vote and 141 prefecture delegates (3 each from the 47 LDP prefecture chapters) each getting a vote.  If so then there is no point in voting.  菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) will announce formally today or tomorrow that he will enter the race and he will win in a landslide victory.  We might as well focus on what happens next like will there be an early snap election and the situation of the CDP-DPP merger.  Any early election will most likely create a LDP-KP landslide and Center-Left Opposition unity with JCP will be necessary to stop LDP-KP from gaining seats. 

[jaichind]

My guess for LDP Prez vote

                                            MP            LDP Chapter vote            Total
菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          325                      77                       402
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)             22                      56                        78     
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           47                       8                         55     

[Lachi]

Current state of the opposition merger

[jaichind]

To quell simmering anger at the LDP grassroots level for being left out of the LDP Prez election, 42 out of the 47 LDP prefecture captors have decided to hold primaries to determine the 3 electors each chapter will send.  Of course it will not make a difference one way or another. 

[Logical]

If a snap election is called when will it take place?

[jaichind]

If a snap election is called when will it take place?

Most likely October.

[Lachi]

This is the new party

[jaichind]

CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) has made it clear he will run for the leadership of the new combined CDP-DPP party.  It is clear he will be elected with a large majority.

A lot of the DPP MPs that did not join the rump reformed DPP but also did not join the new combined CDP-DPP are either looking to join LDP or are PR MPs associated with labor unions that decided not to back the new CDP-DPP party.  They know that joining the rump DPP will be going no where so most likely they will try to be independents but allied with the new CDP-DPP party.  Main problem is many of them were elected on the PR slate so not sure what do they do when re-election comes around.   

[jaichind]

Latest Ashai poll of party support has an amazing

LDP        40
KP           2
JRP          1
PNHK       0
DPP         1
CDP         3
SDP         0
JCP          3

Most of the non-LDP supporter have all "gone underground" given the news of the LDP Prez election dominates the new cycle.

Suga should go for a snap election right after he is made PM to cash in.  His window of opportunity might not be that large.

[Silent Hunter]

Are those figures typos?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yes, that poll is........remarkable.

[jaichind]

Are those figures typos?

No. That is what the poll right now show.  This is a poll of party support and NOT PR vote intentions where I would still expect CDP to be a double digits .  Note that historically the issue of social acceptability always biases responses toward the ruling party with non-LDP voters choosing to identify as independents at different rates depending on the circumstances.  Note that Abe resigning due to illness means that many non-LDP voters will view it as "not proper" to support an opposition party and will instead identify as independent.  

My usual rule of thumb to translate party support vote to PR is

a) LDP+KP PR vote is LDP+KP party support plus 8
b) Assume KP always has PR 13.5 so LDP support is a) minus 13.5
c) Driple JRP and CDP party support numbers to be their PR vote (make it double if it is close to an election)  
d) Double JCP party support numbers to be their PR vote

KP has high social sigma so many KP supporters "hide out" as LDP supporters given the LDP-KP alliance.

So this poll seems to indicate that LDP-KP PR vote will be around 50 which is enough for an easy landslide in a snap election.  Given the circumstances of the LDP Prez race being in the news and rules c) and d) do not really work anyway but a) and b) should still operate fine.

[Cassius]

Given that (as per my understanding) Suga doesn’t have much of a base of support of his own, is it possible that Abe might attempt a comeback as leader in a couple of years time, provided he has his illness under control again?

[Silent Hunter]

Who is everyone else backing then? Because that is nowhere near close to 100.

[jaichind]

Given that (as per my understanding) Suga doesn’t have much of a base of support of his own, is it possible that Abe might attempt a comeback as leader in a couple of years time, provided he has his illness under control again?

As long as Suga leads the LDP to victory in the next couple of election I see no reason to think there will be an Abe comeback.

Understand that outside the core LDP Abe is not that popular.  The top reason for support of Abe in every poll since Abe's comeback in 2012 is "there is no one else."

[jaichind]

Who is everyone else backing then? Because that is nowhere near close to 100.

In such a poll most independents are really opposition supporters (CDP and JRP) that are hiding out as independents and will vote opposition in the next election.

[jaichind]

After the CDP-DPP merger the Lower house now stands at

LDP                             285
CDP-DPP (name TDB)   106
KP                                29
JCP                              12
JRP                              11
OPPN                           10 (pro-Opposition independents, mostly ex-DPP)
Rump  DPP                     7
HP                                 2
PNHK                             1 (a disgraced JRP MP that went over to PNHK)
Independents                 3 (1 disgraced LDP MP, 1 disgraced JRP MP, 1 LDP rebel)

2017 election results were

LDP                            284 (including 4 that were retroactively nominated)
KP                               29
CDP                             55
HP                               50
JCP                              12
JRP                              11
SDP                               2
OPPN                           22 (pro-Opposition independents)

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is everyone else backing then? Because that is nowhere near close to 100.

In such a poll most independents are really opposition supporters (CDP and JRP) that are hiding out as independents and will vote opposition in the next election.

Still an unusual way of doing polling these days.

[jaichind]

Who is everyone else backing then? Because that is nowhere near close to 100.

In such a poll most independents are really opposition supporters (CDP and JRP) that are hiding out as independents and will vote opposition in the next election.

Still an unusual way of doing polling these days.

It is not the polling firm's fault the voters act like this.  It is an issue of culture.

[jaichind]

Osaka city assembly voted in favor of the Osaka Metropolis plan paving the way for a referendum in Nov



Note that LDP joined forces with JCP to vote against the proposal while KP supported the JRP.  In 2019 local elections the LDP pretty much forced the KP to run as an ally of the LDP in Osaka prefecture and JRP won in a landslide anyway.  It seems now the KP is doing what KP does which is drift toward the top dog which in Osaka is JRP.  JRP is really an Osaka based Libertarian faction of the LDP that party-ized itself.  The Osaka LDP factional feud with JRP is so deep and intense that they have no problems joining forces with JCP to take on JRP.

[jaichind]

First Osaka poll on  Osaka Metropolis plan has For ahead of Against 49.2 to 39.6




Breakdown by party has JRP voters for 86.1 to 8.8.  LDP voters are actually only narrowly against 45.3 to 49.3 despite LDP caucus being very much against.  KP voters are more opposed 26 to 57.4 despite KP party caucus being for the plan.  JCP voters being very much against 3.9 to 83.0

[jaichind]

With Suga now on a clear path to victory public opinion now shifts in his favor



Now for support for LDP Prez is

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          38
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)           25
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          5

Critically for LDP voters it is

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          49
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)           23
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          6

So Suga pretty much have majority support of LDP grassroots as well.

Yomiuri poll has an even higher level of support for Suga with him getting 46% support of Japan voters and 63% of LDP supporters.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval rate surges after Abe resigns



LDP support also surges back up while all other opposition party support falls

[jaichind]

Sept 10 will be the leadership race for the new CDP-DPP-SDP unified party.  If will be current CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) vs current DPP MP 泉健太(Izumi Kenta).  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio)  is for keeping the party name CDP for the new unified party while 泉健太(Izumi Kenta) want to go back to DP 民主党(Democratic Party) of 2016-2017 before it split into CDP and HP (later DPP).  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) should win by a mile.

[jaichind]

Sankei weekend magazine 夕刊フジ(Zakzak or Evening Fuji) projection for Lower House snap election.  This magazine has a record, like many other media houses, of underestimating LDP before election season to drive up magazine sales.

            District     PR        Total
LDP         203       68         271
KP              9       23           32
JRP           12       22           34
PNHK          0        0             0
DPP            7        2             9   (rump DPP)
CDP          51      43           94   (CDP-DPP unified party)
RS             0         4            4
SDP           0         1             1
JCP            1       13           14
OPPN         6         0             6

Total        289     176       465

 

Had the 2019 Upper House PR vote been replicated in the Lower house elections the result would have been

LDP         77
KP           24
JRP         14
PNHK        0
DPP        10
CDP        31
RS            5
SDP          1
JCP         14

So this projection has LDP losing some support to JRP relative to 2019.  Given the fact that LDP always does better on Upper House PR vote (because in the Upper House PR vote you can vote for a candidate as opposed to a party and have that vote accrue to the party the LDP higher PR candidate quality will inflate the LDP PR vote) this is not unexpected.  Still I think this estimate underestimates LDP and overestimates JRP and CDP in the PR section and most likely in the district section as well.  Given current polling LDP-KP should be able to get 2/3 majority landslide pretty easily.