Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

What are the substantive arguments for and against the plan, as you understand them?

See

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

On paper it is about being more "efficient" by reducing layers of government.  In practice it s a multi-step process of
a) Making Osaka at par with Tokyo and from there locking in JRP as long time ruling party of Osaka
b) Then push the East-West Japan differences and how the West has been underdeveloped relative to the East just like Osaka has been underdeveloped relative to Tokyo last few decades
c) Then make the argument that Osaka should be a second capital of Japan and capital of West Japan
d) JRP moves in and becomes the dominate party of West Japan

Now d) becomes a stretch but JRP is allowed to dream.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

The world will watch in anticipation as to how this plays out. Abe's continued efforts to amend the Constitution & allow nationalists in his cabinet have made him generally unpopular among the Japanese people, especially with the younger generations of voters who were raised on a pacifist, liberal education. And despite his party's strong grip on power, he managed to implement only a limited track-record. The effects of Abenomics aren't yet clear, & the public isn't yet ready to accept changes to Article 9.

You have it backward. Abbe was pretty popular among young people. It was the older groups that were most anti-Abbe

Yeah. Japan is similar to Israel in that younger people without a personal experience with serious existential threat from war tend to be more militaristic and more socially conservative than their parents and grandparents, not less.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

What are the substantive arguments for and against the plan, as you understand them?

See

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

On paper it is about being more "efficient" by reducing layers of government.  In practice it s a multi-step process of
a) Making Osaka at par with Tokyo and from there locking in JRP as long time ruling party of Osaka
b) Then push the East-West Japan differences and how the West has been underdeveloped relative to the East just like Osaka has been underdeveloped relative to Tokyo last few decades
c) Then make the argument that Osaka should be a second capital of Japan and capital of West Japan
d) JRP moves in and becomes the dominate party of West Japan

Now d) becomes a stretch but JRP is allowed to dream.

Interesting. I love peripheral Japan and think it's been screwed hard in the postwar era but I hate the JRP, so this'd be a tough call for me as an Osaka voter.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

I'm not very knowledgeable about Japanese politics, but I've always had a bit of a soft spot for Abe since I have a distinct memory of reading articles by 2012 Paul Krugman praising "Abenomics." From what I remember, he was something of a Keynesian compared to the neoliberals of the opposing Democratic Party, but he didn't implement the policies nearly as far as he should have and it ended up failing. At least it was good in theory, unlike his social policies.

Politics aside though, as someone with irritable bowel syndrome I feel Abe's pain. It's not colitis, but IBS is still incredibly debilitating and often cause for great despair and hopelessness. I wish him the best of health and a speedy recovery.

[jaichind]

For the LDP Prez election in Sept 2020, there are two ways the election will work.  

A "normal" election would involve 395 LDP MPs each getting an electoral vote plus a national vote of all LDP members (around 1 million of them) and 395 electoral college elector allocated by vote share.  If no one gets an absolute majority of the 790 electoral votes, then just the MPs vote between the top two electoral college candidates.

An "emergency" election which could be used in a mid-term election like this one would involve 395 LDP MPs each getting an electoral vote and each LDP prefecture branch appointing electors with each prefecture getting at least 3 electors each and the rest allocated by population to get to 300 electors.  If no one gets an absolute majority of the 695 electoral votes, then just the MPs vote between the top two electoral college candidates.

The argument for the  "emergency" election approach would be the need to reduce the time to organize the election since it would not involved up to 1 million LDP members voting plus the risk of large gathering for the election during COVID-19.

The person that will decide is the LDP General Secretary 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) who is also the leader of the 二階(Toshihiro) faction.   In theory  二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) should prefer the "emergency" approach since a "normal" election would favor 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) who is more popular with LDP party members but not as popular with MPs and it is clear 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) does not like 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  All things equal I suspect 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) is biased toward 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) if no one from the 二階(Toshihiro) faction emerges to run.  Of course 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) would have to take into account of accusations that the election result is illegitimate if LDP grassroots are not able to take part.

Once 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) decides how the election will be run then I am sure possible candidates will make up their mind to run an emerge which means we will get a clear picture of who is running and which factions are for which candidate.

[jaichind]

Note that the 2012 LDP Prez was the first and only LDP Prez election where it had to go to the second round.   Abe won neither the plurality of the MP nor Prefecture captor vote but won in the MP only second round.  This was before the LDP party member vote system was introduced to replace the LDP prefecture chapter vote.


                                                          MP             Prefecture chapter       Total
Abe                                                    54                       87                     141
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)                          34                     165                     199
町村信孝(Machimura Nobutaka)              27                        7                       34
石原伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru)                  58                       38                       96
林 芳正(Hayashi Yoshimasa)                  24                        3                        27

Since Abe and 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) were the top 2 electoral vote winners the MP vote in a second round which went
                                               MP
Abe                                        108
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)               89

So Abe won despite not winning either the MP vote nor Prefecture chapter vote and only won the second round because it was MP only.  Had there been no second round of if the second round also included Prefecture chapter then 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  would have won.

You can see why 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  is holding a grudge thinking he was robbed by the system.

What is funny is the anti-石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) forces this time around including people like Abe, 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro), 麻生太郎(Tarō Asō), 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) etc etc might gang up to both pick the election type best to stop 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) and perhaps join forces to stop 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) in the election itself.  So 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) might get "robbed" again in 2020.

[TML]

I remember that after the end of Junichiro Koizumi’s tenure as PM in 2006, there was a stretch of six years where a series of PMs all served for less than two years each. That situation lasted until Abe took the reigns again in 2012. Now that Abe is leaving again, is there a significant chance of a repeat of the 2006-2012 situation with PMs?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I remember that after the end of Junichiro Koizumi’s tenure as PM in 2006, there was a stretch of six years where a series of PMs all served for less than two years each. That situation lasted until Abe took the reigns again in 2012. Now that Abe is leaving again, is there a significant chance of a repeat of the 2006-2012 situation with PMs?

The 2006-2012 situation has recurred periodically throughout postwar Japan's political history (there was a similar revolving door between Nakasone and Koizumi in the late 80s and 90s). So I don't know but my heart says maybe.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How does this alter the possibilities relating to when the next general election takes place?

[jaichind]

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) and 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) have already announced that they will run in the Sept LDP Prez race. 

麻生太郎(Tarō Asō) already stated he will not run which should not be a surprise given his age and the fact that he led the LDP to an disastrous defeat in 2009.   This does open the way for 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) to run since 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) is in the 麻生(Aso) faction. 

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) has indicated that he will not run but that could change.  One problem for him is that he was close to the now disgraced LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who along with his Upper House MP wife have been both charged of vote buying.

Foreign Minister 茂木敏充(Motegi Toshimitsu) who is a member of the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction will most likely run.  The  竹下(Takesh**ta) faction is the successor faction of the old Tanaka faction is is considered "non-mainstream" within the LDP.  This means he will get support of the   竹下(Takesh**ta) faction  and no more then that.

It is also possible that LDP election chief strategist 下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun) of the 細田(Hosoda) faction might run.  The 細田(Hosoda) faction is the largest LDP faction and also the faction Abe was a member of (he "resigned" from this faction once he became the PM.)  If he were to run that could split the 細田(Hosoda) faction vote that would otherwise go to Abe's ally 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) who himself does not belong to any faction.

[jaichind]

How does this alter the possibilities relating to when the next general election takes place?

A topic of great debate within the LDP.  麻生太郎(Tarō Asō) is pushing for a snap election ASAP after the new LDP PM is elected and installed to get a new mandate.  He indicated that after he took over as PM in 2008 he should have gone for an early election ASAP.  Waiting until 2009 exhausted his goodwill and the LDP was crushed.  Others in LDP felt that an early election in the middle of COVID-19 is hard to justify and could backfire on the LDP by angry voters that sees the LDP putting the party interest above that of Japan.   

[jaichind]

The various Chinese language media are already categorizing the various possible LDP PM candidates as pro-Beijing or pro-Taipei.  The consensus of both pro-PRC and pro-ROC media discussions seems to be:

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) is for sure pro-Taipei as well as 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) although 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) is viewed as more moderate than 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) in his anti-Beijing views.

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) is viewed as pro-Beijing and despite being fairly open in his anti-PRC views Defense Minister 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) is viewed as a closet pro-Beijing by both pro-Beijing and pro-Taipei media.  The Chinese language media all point to the fact that 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)'s father 河野 洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who was the leader of the LDP splinter LL 1984-1986 before merging it back into the LDP as well as LDP Prez in 1993-1995 was well known for his pro-Beijing views.  The Chinese media of all sides seems convinced that  河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)'s anti-Beijing talk is mostly to cater to the surge in anti-PRC feeling in the Japanese population in 2020 as well as to align with PM Abe.

[jaichind]

First post-Abe resignation poll from Kyodo.

Who should be next PM

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)                36
河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)                    14
小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)        11
菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)               11
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)               8

Note this is poll of all voters and not all LDP members.  In such LDP members poll I would expect 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  to have a lead but a smaller one.

PR vote

LDP             49  !!!
KP                4
PNHK           0
JRP              5
DPP              2
CDP            12
RS               1
SDP             1
JCP              3

LDP PR vote surges to massive 49 most likely due to interest in the LDP leadership race and with Abe gone old pro-LDP but anti-Abe voters will come out to support LDP.

[jaichind]

Looks like the 二階(Toshihiro) faction will come out to back 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) which means 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  is more likely to run.  And if he does run he will have de facto Abe support which will also mean that the large 細田(Hosoda) faction will be de facto be behind him.  Big Mo for 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  if true especially because  二階(Toshihiro) faction leader 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) is also the LDP general secretary and will decide on election format.

[jaichind]

List of LDP factions

細田(Hosoda) faction - 97 members  - Abe's faction will most like back 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)
麻生(Aso) faction - 56 members - not clear, could form alliance with  二階(Toshihiro) faction
竹下(Takesh**ta) faction - 54 members - also not clear
岸田(Kishida) faction - 47 members - clearly for 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) 
二階(Toshihiro) faction - 47 members - seems to be coming out for 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)
石破(Ishiba) faction - 19 members  - clearly for 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)
石原(Ishihara) faction - 11 members
No factions - 64 members

With rumors of 二階(Toshihiro) faction backing 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) and a possible alliance between 二階(Toshihiro) faction  and 麻生(Aso) faction  it seems that Abe is working behind the scenes to wrap this one up for 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) ahead of time locking out Abe's old time rival 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).

[jaichind]

I remember that after the end of Junichiro Koizumi’s tenure as PM in 2006, there was a stretch of six years where a series of PMs all served for less than two years each. That situation lasted until Abe took the reigns again in 2012. Now that Abe is leaving again, is there a significant chance of a repeat of the 2006-2012 situation with PMs?

Well, this LDP Prez election is to only finish off the current term until Sept 2021.  So the new LDP leader leads the LDP to a significant victory in the Lower House election that will certainly come sooner than later, then he can go on to be PM for the next 3-4 years.  If not, even if LDP-KP pulls out a bare majority there is a good chance the new LDP Prez and PM will be replaced in the Sept 2021 LDP Prez election and potentially starting another round of 1 year PMs.  Lets be clear. the next election will produce an outcome that range from LDP-KP 2/3 majority landslide to bare LDP-KP majority.  LDP-KP losing their majority is pretty much out of the question.

[jaichind]

Looks like 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) will officially enter the race on Tuesday.  Given the support of the key swing 二階(Toshihiro) faction he has to be seen as the front runner now.

[jaichind]

It seems in the discussions between LDP general secretary 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) and other LDP faction leaders there is a consensus to go with the  "emergency" election procedure which would exclude the LDP rank and file voters and have a vote only based on MPs and LDP prefecture chapter leaders/representatives.  The reasons they are going to give is of course COVID-19 as the reason to adopt an "emergency" election procedure.   Of course there might be a snap election right after the LDP Prez election which would make a mockery of the argument that COVID-19 makes it unsafe to have an election.

This victory for the pro-Abe forces is a long time coming.  Right after the 2016 Upper House elections Abe decided to  form an alliance with his long time rival 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) by making him LDP General Secretary.  The deal is clear, 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) was clearly getting to old to become PM after Abe moves on so he decided to sell what he had to get a share of the power.  What Abe got out of it is for 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) to throw his power behind Abe's preferred choice for successor.  The deal is now playing out as Abe moves on.

At this stage I cannot see how it is not  菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide).  The only chance 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) had was that the election includes the vote of LDP rank and file and even then it would have been tough.  Now it seems insurmountable.

[Babeuf]

Kind of a random question with all the big events happening now, but how does the Zainichi Korean population in Japan vote in Japanese elections?

Obviously referring to the group who has become citizens, not the permanent residents (who I assume do not have voting rights in Japan).

[jaichind]

小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)  has endorsed 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) for LDP Prez even though 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) have not thrown his hat into the ring yet.  These two are clearly the future of the LDP.  菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) will be 72 soon and cannot last more than 1 or 2 election cycles.   At some stage in their careers 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) will most likely become PM just like 小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō) will become PM sometime after him.

[jaichind]

Kind of a random question with all the big events happening now, but how does the Zainichi Korean population in Japan vote in Japanese elections?

Obviously referring to the group who has become citizens, not the permanent residents (who I assume do not have voting rights in Japan).

I think a lot of them are not Japanese citizens and cannot vote as you pointed out.  It is clear they will vote Center-Left since it is at the margins Center-Right parties that end to question their loyalties.  Back in 2015 when there were significant protests against the new Security Laws pro-LDP groups accused the protesters of being ethnic Koreans and supported financially by the DPRK.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What are Suga and Ishiba like? Ultra-hawkish economic wets like Abe, or would one or both of them be a change of pace?

[Silent Hunter]

I think we need to rename this thread.

[brucejoel99]

I think we need to rename this thread.

I nominate "Japan General Discussion: Abe Checks Out."

[jaichind]

What are Suga and Ishiba like? Ultra-hawkish economic wets like Abe, or would one or both of them be a change of pace?

I do not know much about their economic policy views.  I would say that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) would be a less hawkish and more technocratic version of Abe while 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will be more Hawkish than Abe.  I think overall 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) would prioritize domestic economic concerns over foreign policy while   石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will prioritize Japan external strategic position over domestic economic concerns.

I think with 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) becoming the next LDP PM greatly increases the chances of a snap election.  There is a bloc of pro-LDP but anti-Abe voters that would come out to vote LDP in a post-Abe world.  But the longer PM 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) delays that election the more this bloc of voters will realize that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) is really Abe II.  If someone like  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) or 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) were to take over then a delay of a few months for these pro-LDP but anti-Abe voters to see them operate differently from Abe would enhance their turnout. 

Another version of the downside of having 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) at the helm is that he is very involved with several of Abe's scandals with a few of his own given the fact that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) is the sort of backroom dealer sort of politician.  The now disgraced LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who along with his Upper House MP wife have been both charged of vote buying was know to be a crony of Abe but it was 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) that connected the Kawai clan to Abe so 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) cannot wash himself of this scandal.

All things equal if it is 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) at the helm I suspect LDP-KP will lose seats the next Lower House election but if someone like  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) or 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) were to take over I can see LDP-KP gaining seats from 2017 elections. 

[jaichind]

麻生(Aso) faction comes out in favor of 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) which most likely ends any chance that 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) can win or even bother running.