Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

It seems the DPP campaign cash pile will be divided up on a pro rated basis depending on how many DPP MP joins the new rump DPP or the CDP-DPP merger party.  If so the large majority of the DPP cash will end up in CDP-DPP merged party hands which gives a funding boost to CDP which his much more cash poor when compared to DPP.

It also seems Union federation Rengo is split down the middle between supporting the new rump DPP and the new CDP-DPP merger party.  I am almost certain the nuclear power plant workers union will be for the rump DPP given the CDP position on nuclear power plant shutdowns.

[jaichind]

DPP split status is (out of 62 DPP MPs)

33 will join new CDP-DPP merge party
5 will join new re-formed rump DPP
6 will become independent
18 TBD



If seems the rump DPP and 6 independents will continue their alliance with thew new CDP-DPP merge party to take on LDP which also means some tactical understanding with SDP and JCP.  DPP is also working on some understanding JRP.  This means in the next election the 5 rump DPP MPs are likely to retain their seats even if DPP does not win any PR seats. 5 MPs is just enough to be recognized as a party to get federal funding so the rump DPP might survive for a couple of years.   

The 6 independent MPs which are almost all PR slate MPs are choosing not to join most likely because they do not expected to be re-nominated in the next election (be it Upper or Lower) by the new CDP-DPP merger party.  It is possible some of these MPs are looking to make bargains with JRP or LDP so they can join with one of those two parties or even start a new party on their own.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/08/20/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-opposition-parties/

Japan Times has an article talks about why the LDP always seems to win.  They mostly focus on the short election campaign period and that the LDP has control of the election date plus the LDP funding edge.   I think these are factors but miss the mark. 

To me it is
a) Mutually reinforcing trends of LDP being the ruling party at the center most of the time, local government needing federal subsidies to survive which gives the LDP the edge in local election, which in turn give the LDP an edge in candidate quality at the national level.
b) KP alliance with LDP.  The KP voting base are Center to Center-Left lower middle class voters that in a generic political system will be anti-LDP.  In fact KP has anti-LDP roots.  But KP capturing this voting base and forming an alliance with LDP locks out opposition parties from access to this voting bloc.

I would say that in retrospect the most consequential event in recent Japanese political history is the 1995 Tokyo subway  Aum Shinrikyo sarin attack.  Because of this attack KP had a self-imposed fear that the Soka Gakkai will be banned as a cult.  In order to mitigate this KP sought to increase it social acceptability as well as to align with the ruling party as much as possible.  Both led them to align with LDP despite their anti-LDP orientation.  This fact gives the LDP an unusually strong electoral edge.  In a hypothetical party system without the  1995 Tokyo subway  Aum Shinrikyo sarin attack I would think the party system might be something like LDP (40%) vs CDP-SDP-JCP (35%) vs JRP-KP-DPP (25%) where LDP is still the strongest force but tactical alliance between  CDP-SDP-JCP and JRP-KP-DPP could bring down the LDP in many instances.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-24/japan-s-abe-set-to-visit-hospital-again-on-monday-yomiuri-says

Abe to visit hospital again Monday.   It is claimed by the PM office that he is going there to hear the results of his checkup from a week ago.  Of course the "checkup" from a week ago lasted 7.5 hours and we are to believe that the doctors are too busy to email over the checkup results and discuss them over virtual meeting and the PM of Japan has to go to the hospital to hear the checkup results. 

There are rumors and frustrations among some LDP MPs are looking forward to being promoted into the cabinet in an upcoming cabinet reshuffle but now fear the scale of the reshuffle will be scaled down due to the Abe health problems.

[Gass3268]

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

[jaichind]

It seems Abe will stay on as MP and will run in the next election so revival of the illness that forced him to resign in 2007 (along with a 2007 Upper House LDP setback) must not be terminal.

As for who will be the next PM the front-runners are

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) who is the leader of his own small 石破(Ishiba) faction and long time rival of Abe, running against Abe in both the 2012 and 2018 LDP Prez contest.

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) who is the current Chief Cabinet Secretary and Abe's long time ally and for sure who Abe favors to succeed him

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) who is the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the leader of the 岸田(Kishida) faction

河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is the Minister of Defense and a member of the 麻生(Aso) faction

Abe above all else will want to block 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) and if he sees that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) cannot beat out 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  might shift his support to 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) to block 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  Main problem is that among the LDP grassroots and the public at large 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) is the most popular.

How the old faction leaders Tarō Asō (麻生 太郎) of the 麻生(Aso) faction and Toshihiro Nikai (二階 俊博) of the 二階(Toshihiro) who both are allies of Abe act will be critical.  They will ultimately decide this LDP Prez election by consolidating behind 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  or 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) or try to get those to to unite against 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) or they might see 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) cannot be stopped and go over to back 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).

[jaichind]

DPP split status

Out of 62 DPP MPs -> 33 to join CDP-DPP merger party, 6 to join reformed DPP rump party, 6 to become independent (I suspect some will join LDP and other might form their own micro parties). 17 yet to decide   

[jaichind]

Even though Abe aides a few hours before his press conference claimed that Abe will continue until the end of his term the fact that the 麻生(Aso) faction had an emergency meeting a few hours before Abe announcement made it clear what was going to take place.

[jaichind]

Abe resigning most likely means the revival of the power of LDP factions.  Abe was so dominate within the LDP grassroots and LDP MPs that the power of the LDP factions went into decline after 2012.  Now with Abe moving more to a behind the scene role the power of LDP factions will most likely have a reversion to the mean.

[jaichind]

LDP Prez election will be mid Sept.  In the meantime Abe will stay on as caretaker PM

[jaichind]

Kyodo summarized Abe's press conference.  Abe said:

-- resignation meant to avoid his health issue creating leadership vacuum.
-- he needs prolonged treatment for ulcerative colitis.
-- he lost confidence in his ability to serve Japanese people.
-- now is the only time he could resign amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.
-- he will remain in office until his successor is selected.
-- he apologizes to the Japanese people for stepping down at this time.
-- it is with utmost regret that he failed to amend the Constitution, bring Japanese abductees home from North Korea.
-- will continue his political career, run in next general election.

[jaichind]

So in the end out all the mainstream media the Chinese language media got it right.  The entire time over the last week the Chinese language media (mostly in ROC and HK) kept on saying Abe is a goner while most Japanese mainstream media seems to be more reluctant in printing what they consider rumors about Abe's health and likely resignation.  Obviously peer pressure to not undermine the nation's leader played a role here.

[Cassius]

Are there any significant ideological differences between the factions, or is it all just a case of personal loyalties/who’s friends with who/who represents what interest group/who wants a government job? My understanding is that Ishiba is even more of a nationalist than Abe, but I could’ve read that completely wrong.

[jaichind]

Are there any significant ideological differences between the factions, or is it all just a case of personal loyalties/who’s friends with who/who represents what interest group/who wants a government job? My understanding is that Ishiba is even more of a nationalist than Abe, but I could’ve read that completely wrong.

Most of it is about personality.  The only thing I can thing of is  二階(Toshihiro) faction is pro-Beijing while most of the other factions are anti-Beijing.  In the LDP-KP government, when it is time to deal with USA they tend to deploy non-二階(Toshihiro) faction politicians and when it is time to deal with PRC they deploy  二階(Toshihiro) faction and KP politicians as KP is also considered pro-Beijing. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not surprising: recent photographs of Abe pointed heavily towards him suffering from a serious flare-up of his condition; his washed-out complexion especially. Anyway, whatever one might think of his policies, he is an objectively remarkable man to have so dominated public Japanese public life for so long whilst suffering from this.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've always hated me some Abe, but I've never wished a condition this chronic or this painful on him. Definitely the end of an era for Japan, and it must be said that he has done a little good in addition to much bad (I'd definitely rather be a woman in the Japanese workforce now than in 2012, for instance, although my view is that "womenomics" was too little too late in terms of the toxicity of Japanese gender relations).

The Daily Beast is being pretty tasteless about this, using puns like "unable to stomach the job" and implying--perhaps correctly, but now really isn't the time to say it--that Abe's real concern is reducing his legal liability for this cabinet's corruption issues.

The factional issues in the LDP were at one time ideological, markedly and infamously so, but these days the whole party is pretty thoroughly captive to the Nippon Kaigi way of doing things.

[jaichind]

I am for 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō).  He is the one most likely to push LDP in a Thatcherite direction.  If he becomes LDP Prez I will for sure switch my support from JRP back to LDP.  I cannot stand Abe mostly because of his heterodox economic policies.  Unfortunately unless it is 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) there is very little chance LDP will change course on that front.  Anyone other than 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) is just Abe Mark II with perhaps a shift in a more dovish or hawkish direction but even that will be minor.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I cannot stand Abe mostly because of his heterodox economic policies.  Unfortunately unless it is 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) there is very little chance LDP will change course on that front.

Would you still be willing to make money as a sex trafficker if you could get away with it, jaichind? (Note for newer posters: He actually did say this back in the day.)

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

What are the substantive arguments for and against the plan, as you understand them?

[brucejoel99]

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

The world will watch in anticipation as to how this plays out. Abe's continued efforts to amend the Constitution & allow nationalists in his cabinet have made him generally unpopular among the Japanese people, especially with the younger generations of voters who were raised on a pacifist, liberal education. And despite his party's strong grip on power, he managed to implement only a limited track-record. The effects of Abenomics aren't yet clear, & the public isn't yet ready to accept changes to Article 9.

Nevertheless, I think Japan won't rush to shake things up in the Diet. Abe's ability to leverage Japan's strength in foreign relations - & maintaining stability at the top of Japan's political atmosphere - will be critical for Japan in the post-COVID era. I expect him to continue to be a major part of the LDP decision-making process, much like Putin in between his terms &/or Lee Kuan Yew after his retirement.

[kaoras]

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

The world will watch in anticipation as to how this plays out. Abe's continued efforts to amend the Constitution & allow nationalists in his cabinet have made him generally unpopular among the Japanese people, especially with the younger generations of voters who were raised on a pacifist, liberal education. And despite his party's strong grip on power, he managed to implement only a limited track-record. The effects of Abenomics aren't yet clear, & the public isn't yet ready to accept changes to Article 9.

You have it backward. Abbe was pretty popular among young people. It was the older groups that were most anti-Abbe

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I expect him to continue to be a major part of the LDP decision-making process, much like Putin in between his terms &/or Lee Kuan Yew after his retirement.

That was always the LDP way and that may well be the plan (and, you know, the hope of the various party hacks who lack his talents), but not immediately, I think. His condition is really not a joke at all and getting it under control if it flares nastily can take a while.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53428863

To many Japanese, racism towards black people has long been considered something that happens in the US or Europe, not at home.

But when the death of George Floyd in the US sparked a wave of protests demanding that Black Lives Matter, people in Japan joined in too.

The protests and marches in major cities pushed a debate about racism in the country, and whether enough was being done to confront and change things.


In June, public broadcaster NHK aired a segment to explain to Japanese audiences what was happening in the US, with the protests over George Floyd's death.

The report, in a news show aimed at younger audiences, featured an animated video depicting the protesters as grotesque stereotypes, deeply steeped in racist imagery: caricatures with exaggerated muscles and angry faces, and with looters in the background.

The reaction was largely negative - the US embassy called the segment "offensive and insensitive".

[jaichind]

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

The world will watch in anticipation as to how this plays out. Abe's continued efforts to amend the Constitution & allow nationalists in his cabinet have made him generally unpopular among the Japanese people, especially with the younger generations of voters who were raised on a pacifist, liberal education. And despite his party's strong grip on power, he managed to implement only a limited track-record. The effects of Abenomics aren't yet clear, & the public isn't yet ready to accept changes to Article 9.

You have it backward. Abbe was pretty popular among young people. It was the older groups that were most anti-Abbe

Yeah, this is true.  Overall Abe is actually not that popular.  He is very popular with LDP MPs and the core LDP vote.  So his main contribution to LDP victory is to keep it united so the natural LDP strength at the ground level can steamroll a divided opposition.  He never really delivered any personal vote to the LDP MP in their election campaigns.