Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

Exit poll also show that JFP's 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) beat out PNHK's 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) for 5th place in the battle of protest party leaders. 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) has to run for Tokyo governor in 2016 and most likely have more name recognition in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls indicate that

For LDP vote: 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) won around 77%
For CDP vote: 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) 40%, 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) 30%,  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  17%
For JCP vote: 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) 67%, 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) 20%,  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  10%

Amazing that 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) won 20% of the JCP vote and speaks to her cross-party appeal within Tokyo local politics and the power of incumbency. 

[jaichind]

Returns from the more rare rural parts of Tokyo shows 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) getting around 85% of the vote there. 

[jaichind]

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) stronger with older voters while  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) stronger with younger voters.

[jaichind]

With 3% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)       62.5%    
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         13.9%          
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       12.9%    
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                              9.6%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           1.1%

Vote still has a rural lean which means 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) has more to fall while 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) has more to gain.  Mostly matches exit polls.

Rural areas which have finished counting seems to all have 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at 70%-80% vote share range.

[jaichind]

Given the fact that votes are reported threshold at a time (meaning if you hit 1000 votes in a district then they are reported) vote shares for minor candidates are under-counted during the counting process.

[jaichind]

With 16% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      63.1%   
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         13.5%         
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       12.3%   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                              9.6%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           1.3%

Even in urban districts it seems 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is out-performing 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) a bit.  Exit polls that show 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) slightly ahead of 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) might be wrong and be the other way around which would match my prediction. 

[jaichind]

With 47% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.7%   
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         14.4%         
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       12.1%   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                            10.4%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           1.9%

Turnout estimated to be at 55%

[Continential]

Why does the LDP have a monopoly on elections?

[jaichind]

With 73% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.9%   
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         14.2%         
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       11.4%   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                            10.5%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           2.2%

Turnout estimated to be at 55%

As more urban votes comes in 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) does make slight gains.  The Others vote share is underestimated at this stage given the votes being counted are still mostly those over the 500 or 1000 vote per district threshold.

[jaichind]

Exit poll by party support



小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) swept the KP vote (not a surprise) but also has support in the JRP voters and performed very well with the slightly lean center-left independent vote. 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) is in the game for 3rd only because of his support of anti-Koike LDP voters.

[jaichind]

Why does the LDP have a monopoly on elections?

It is a series of reinforcing trends

1) LDP is ruling part at the center and prefecture level almost all the time
2) prefecture require subsidies from the central government 
3) people often vote for the candidate and not the party at the prefecture level
4) due to need to control subsidies most local level up-and-coming politicians with lcoal support join LDP
5) farm league for LDP at the national level is much stronger than other parties
6) civil servants join LDP given LDP control of the central government 

All these trends reinforce each other.  The way to break LDP is to break it at the prefecture and municipal power once a non-LDP government comes into power at the center.  The 1993-1994 and 2009-2012 non-LDP government were too chaotic and non-functional to even try.

[jaichind]

With 95% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.0%     3.521 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                        13.9%      0.817 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                      10.9%      0.639 million votes   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                             9.9%      0.528 million votes
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                          2.7%      0.165 million votes

Turnout estimated to be at 55%

Mostly converging toward my prediction

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.80 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.90 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.45 million votes

With 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at slightly over 60% of the vote.

It does seem I have underestimated 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) although my call that he will beat out 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) defeated even the exit polls

[kaoras]

Any info about the by-elections?

[jaichind]

Any info about the by-elections?

LDP won all of them but LDP vote share worse than expected.  JRP over-performed.  Will have to dig up the vote shares and post them later 

[jaichind]

In 北多摩(Kitatama) Third by-election it is

LDP-KP     47.67%
TSN          27.72%
JCP-CDP   24.61%

in 2017 it was

TPFA        34.17% (DP background)
KP           22.92%
JCP          20.32%
LDP         19.83%
DP rebel     2.76%

Significant LDP under-performance.  A CDP-TSN-JCP alliance could have won (as long as JCP is not the common candidate)

[jaichind]

With 99% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.0%     3.637 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                        13.8%      0.836 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                      10.8%      0.655 million votes   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                           10.0%      0.605 million votes
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                          2.8%      0.170 million votes

Mostly matches my prediction

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.80 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.90 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.45 million votes

With 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at slightly over 60% of the vote.

Both 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)  clearly outperformed.  But I got 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) vote share pretty much on the nose at 60%.

[jaichind]

In 大田区 (Ota) by-election it is

LDP-KP        37.44%
JRP             26.89%
CDP-JCP      23.65%
Ind               4.60%
PNHK            3.94%
Ind               3.47%

Back in 2017 it was

TPFA           29.62%
LDP            20.89%
KP              17.94%
JCP             14.52%
JRP               7.22%
DP                5.63%
Minor Right    3.21%
HNP              0.74%

JRP and CDP seems to have picked up most of the TPFA vote from 2017

[jaichind]

With pretty much all votes counted it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)     59.7%      3.661 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                        13.8%      0.844 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                     10.7%       0.657 million votes   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                          10.0%       0.613 million votes
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                         2.9%       0.179 million votes
Rest                                                                             2.9%       0.179 million votes

Compared to my prediction of

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.80 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.90 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.45 million votes

With 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at slightly over 60% of the vote.

So just like over pre-election polls, the incumbent was overestimated and once again just like 2019 Upper house elections 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) was underestimated in exit polls.

[jaichind]

北区(Kita) by election

LDP-KP     34.44%
CDP-JCP   23.88%
JRP          22.36%
TPFA        15.29%
PNHK         4.04%

back in 2017 it was

TPFA  35.52%
KP     21.74%
JCP    19.14%
LDP   18.36%
DP      5.24%

LDP and CDP clearly under-performed and JRP over-performed.  TPFA also did not do as badly as expected although the TPFA candidate is a secretary of Koike.  In the end some of the Koike vote must have transferred to the TPFA candidate.     

[jaichind]

日野市(Hino City) by-election

LDP-KP      57.02％
JCP-CDP    42.98%

back in 2017 it was

TPFA      41.11% (has DPJ background)
LDP       22.27%
JCP        21.10%
DP rebel 15.51%

JCP was able to eat into the 2017 TPFA vote with the LDP under-performing. 

[jaichind]

小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) got exactly 9.99% share of the vote which means he will lose his deposit by the smallest of margins.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for Tokyo also asked by Olympics.  27% are for holding the Olympics next year, 36% are for cancelling the Olympics and 17% are for another delay to (most likely 2022). 

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval stabilizing around the mid 30s

[jaichind]

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) clearly performed better in rural areas and performed the worst in core urban areas.  小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) and 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) are the other way around.  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is stronger in urban areas as well but seems to have surprising relative strength in suburban areas.




Populist Right JFP 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) ran on an anti-immigrant platform and won 2.9% of the vote versus 1.7% in 2016 did much better in urban areas

 

His support seems to correlate positively with level of immigrants in said district.