Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

where would you categorize Aomori Prefecture here? I always got the sense it was more LDP than Tohoku overall.

[jaichind]

where would you categorize Aomori Prefecture here? I always got the sense it was more LDP than Tohoku overall.

If you look at my data table Aomori is at par with the rest of Tokoku in terms of core area vote share but has a massive LDP advantage (95%) in the non-core seat share which is well ahead of other Tokoku prefectures.  So this means that for local elections urban Aomori is a lot like other urban Tokoku prefecture urban areas but rural Aomori is a lot more pro-LDP than the rest of Tokoku. This sort of makes sense as rural Aomori is very economically backward where clientelism and the need for central government subsides would be critical with the result of LDP being the only game in town.   

[jaichind]

While the Abe cabinet approval levels seems to have stopped falling they are still at a fairly low, but not disastrously low, levels.  The problem for Abe is that there are going to be compulsions to have a lower house election soon.  The next lower house election is not due until Oct 2021 but the KP made it clear that the lower house election CANNOT be close to the 2021 June Tokyo Prefecture election.  For the KP the Tokyo Prefecture election is the most important election (more so than any national election) and KP will throw all its cash into that election and will be running on empty if the lower house elections is held close to that.  For that to work Abe has to get the lower house election out of the way this year or very early next year.  Problem is with the virus not really going away and Abe getting hit with scandals a lower house election now would for sure mean significant losses of seats although there should be no danger to a LDP-KP majority.  Abe has to hope his approval rate rises over the next couple of months.

[jaichind]

Tokyo gov election will be July 5th. 

Incumbent Koike will, of course, run for re-election and win comfortably.  TPFA which is her party will of course back her along with LDP and KP despite hostility toward Koike from the Tokyo LDP.

Other key candidates are
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) - ran in 2012 and 2014 with support from SDP-JCP but this time will be a joint Center-Left opposition candidate CDP-SDP-JCP (DPP is not much of a factor in Tokyo and seems will be sitting this one out)
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) - JRP candidate
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) - This not for sure but RS leader might run
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) - Perennial protest candidate and leader of PNHK will most likely run
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - leader of nationalist far right JFP who ran in 2016
Someone from HRP will of course run

I got a feeling マック赤坂(Makku Akasaka), leader of the Smile Party (sort of the Japan's Official Monster Raving Loony Party) might run just like in 2012 2014 and 2016 but in 2019 he was elected to a District council in one of Tokyo's districts so he might not run.  Even if he does he will be a fringe candidate just like HRP.  If PNHK runs they will eat up most of the protest vote anyway leaving very little for HRP and Smile Party.

Had the race been competitive I think CDP-SDP-JCP would try to work out something with RS for an united front.  Since Koike is going to win by a solid margin the Center-Left opposition choose to just hae a somewhat free-for-all.  Key question this election is will Koike cross 50% in this crowded field.

[jaichind]

It seems just like 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election back in April, it seems PNHK will run a troll candidate and not its leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi).  What they will do is to run a candidate also named 小池百合子(Koike Yuriko.) 

Since the voter has to write in the candidate name on the ballot what the election commission will most likely do is to ask the vote to put in the age of the correct 小池百合子(Koike Yuriko) they want to vote for.  Since governor Koike will be 67 on election day those that want to vote for her would have to write "小池百合子 67" on the ballot and those that want to vote for the PNHK 小池百合子(Koike Yuriko) will write "小池百合子 <another age>".  Anyone writing just "小池百合子" or  "小池百合子 <not 67 or the age of the other Koike" will be allocated on a pro rated basis between the two candidates.

[jaichind]

Looks like there will be 22 candidates for the Tokyo governor election which is 1 more than the 2016 record 21 number of candidates.

PNHK in the end nominated its leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) versus trying to have a troll candidate with the same name as Koike.

So main candidates are

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) - incumbent and backed by KP-Part of Tokyo LDP-Rengo
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) - ran in 2012 2014 backed by CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) - leader of RS
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) - JRP candidate

In the end the anti-Koike branch of LDP refused to back Koike so LDP high command decided not formally come out in favor of Koike but left it as free vote for LDP supporters.  Part of the Tokyo LDP will back Koike.  Note that Rengo union which is the heart of DPP will also back Koike which means in de facto terms DPP will also support Koike and breaking with CDP-SDP-JCP.

Significant minor candidates are

立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) - leader of PNHK
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - ran in 2016 leader of JFP

PNHK will also run a couple of other candidates, it seems, to capture as much of the protest vote as possible.  HRP and Smile party will also run a candidate each to win some protest votes.

Koike will most likely win a majority of the vote and what will be interesting is the 3 way battle for second between 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji), 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō), and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)

[jaichind]

First poll in Tokyo governor race (phrased in very vague terms as always) is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo) well ahead with 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS) second with 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) in trouble. Around 40% are undecided

By party support

                        Koike      Yamamoto     Utsunomiya     Uno
LDP                     60%         10%                                10%
KP                       70%       
JRP                                                                           70%
CDP                     20%        30%             30%
JCP                                     10%             80%
Independent        30%         30%               5%           10%

If I make a random guess that partisan ID will be LDP 35% KP 5% JRP 6% CDP 12% JCP 6% Independents 31% (many KP voters ID as LDP to hide their identity, while lots of Center-Left voters identify as Independent)

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo)                 36%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                          17%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                               11%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) 10%

Key takeaway is that Koike has the LDP-KP vote locked up and is able to appeal to CDP and independent voters and is poised to potentially get above 50% of the vote.  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)  is beating out 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) for the non-JCP Center-Left vote. 

I suspect 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)  underestimated here so it could be that 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) will get pushed to 4th place.

[jaichind]

毎日(mainichi) poll on Tokyo governor has massive Koike lead

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo)                    51%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP)    10%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                              8%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                                   7%
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) (PNHK)                                        2%

With Koike headed toward a majority in a fairly crowded field.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

毎日(mainichi) poll on Tokyo governor has massive Koike lead

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo)                    51%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP)    10%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                              8%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                                   7%
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) (PNHK)                                        2%

With Koike headed toward a majority in a fairly crowded field.

It seems that there is quite a lot of undecideds?

[jaichind]

毎日(mainichi) poll on Tokyo governor by gender

                                            Overall      Male     Female
小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)            51            46         60
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)    10            10         10
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)           8            10           4
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)                 7              8           5
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi)        2              3           0
Other                                        8            10           5
Undecided                               14            13         14

Large gender gap in favor of Koike.

There seems to be high disinterest with 10% going to protest candidates and another 14% undecided/do not care.   Part of it has to be with the fact that Koike will for certain win and win with a landslide.  

The rule of thumb in Japan governor elections is that if an incumbent is running with LDP support there is zero chance the incumbent is defeated.  If there is an incumbent running with a strong LDP candidate then it is 60/40 that incumbent will win.

[jaichind]

日経(Nikkei) survey are short on details other than:

1)  小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-part of LDP-Rengo)   with massive lead
2) 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP)  and 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS) in battle for second
3) 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) in 4th and 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) (PNHK) 5th

which matches the 毎日(mainichi) poll.

In fact knowing what I know about Japanese polling I bet both news outlets got the same pollster to do the polling.  The way polls work is one pollster collect a massive sample and hand own the raw data to each media outlet (for a price) and it is up to the media outlet to do they own weighing by demographic variables leading to different results. 

[jaichind]

Some weekend Tokyo Governor polls

They do not give numbers but reading descriptions one gets the relative distance between the various candidates.

毎日(Mainichi): 小池(koike)>>>山本(Yamamoto )>小野(Ono)>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)
読売(Yomiuri): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>>小野(Ono)>山本(Yamamoto)
共同(Kyodo): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>山本(Yamamoto)>>小野(Ono)
朝日(Asahi): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>山本(Yamamoto)>小野(Ono)
日経(Nikkei): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>山本(Yamamoto)>>>小野(Ono) [From last week]

As I though It is Koike way ahead with the other 3 major candidates in a 3 way battle for 2nd.  It does seem that 宇都宮(Utsunomiya) has the edge all things equal in the battle for second place.

The 共同(Kyodo) poll indicated a massive 小池(Koike) lead with her taking 70% of LDP votesrs, 90% of KP voters, 60% of independents, and 60% CDP voters.  If so that should translate into around 68% of the vote which would be a huge lead. 

[jaichind]

中日(Chunichi) poll on Tokyo governor race. (note once again that all these polls have the same source of raw polling data with each media house doing their own weighting)

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) wins 70%-80% of LDP and KP vote, 40%-60% of CDP DPP JRP vote, 60% of the independent vote and 20% of the JCP vote.

宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) wins 20% of the CDP vote and 60% of the JCP vote.

山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) wins 60% of the RS vote

小野(Ono) wins 10% of the JRP vote

If one makes some assumptions on how the rest of the vote is split (and being generous to 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and 小野(Ono) ) it seems to come out to something like

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         69%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) 13%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)        9%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)              8%

This is not that surprising.  Governor level incumbents usually cruise to re-election with a much bigger margin especially if the LDP machine is behind you (in this case part of the LDP machine.)
 The famous 4 term Tokyo governor 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) who served 1999-2012 won in 1999 with 30.47% of the vote but won 70.21% of the vote in his 2003 re-election campaign.

Still I suspect Koike will not cross 65% in the end given the large number of protest candidates in the field.

[jaichind]

The July 12th governor election for 鹿児島(Kagoshima) is an example of the rule "if you win you are LDP"

In 2016 the pro-LDP incumbent since 2004 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) was running for re-election was expecting an easy victory.  But a pro-LDP and anti-nuclear power 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) emerged to challenge 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) with support from various LDP dissidents.   DP-SDP-JCP saw their chance and jumped in to support 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) leading to a shocking upset.

三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (DP-SDP-JCP)   55.5%   
伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (LDP-KP)              44.5%

In office 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) made his peace with the LDP

For 2020 the roles are reversed from with LDP-KP now backing 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) being the LDP dissent trying to get back into power.  So the race will be 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP) vs 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP-DPP plus a part of the local LDP). 

三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) will cruise to re-election mostly as other candidates backed by JCP and dissident factions of CDP-DPP are also in the race and split the anti-三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) vote.

[jaichind]

Tokyo governor election this Sunday

My guess would be

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.50 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.80 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.40 million votes

With Koike around 60%

[jaichind]

Just like 2016 comedian 後藤輝樹 (Goto Teruki) is also in the fray.

Back in 2016 he dressed up as a WWII general


This time around it seems he is going for the vampire look

[jaichind]

Speaking of Tokyo governor elections one cannot forget the 2007 campaign of Extreme Leftist 外山 恒一(Toyama Kōichi) official election statement.  it is one of a kind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df7jOd6HcIY

He got around 15K votes or 0.27%

[jaichind]

There will be a prefecture assembly by-election also on Sunday for Tokyo 北区(Kita) district.  This will give us a sense of how much TPFA has fallen since 2017 even with Koike at the top of the ticket.  The by-election is necessitated by a TPFA MLA with a YP background going on last year to be elected to the Upper House on a JRP ticket.  

In the fray are LDP (with KP support), CDP (with JCP support), JRP, TPFA, and HNP (LDD splinter and affiliated with PNHK).

All 5 candidates are women




Vote share results in the last 4 cycles were

2017 (TPFA landslide) (TPFA took over the YP vote ate deep into LDP JRP and DP vote shares)
TPFA  35.52%
KP     21.74%
JCP    19.14%
LDP   18.36%
DP      5.24%
  
2013 (LDP landslide) (collapse of DPJ turnout with YP and JRP eating into DPJ vote)
LDP   25.87%
KP     21.88%
JCP   19.15%
DPJ   15.30%
YP     10.14%
JRP     7.67%

2009 (DPJ landslide) (massive DPJ turnout surge)
DPJ   42.75%
LDP   20.87%
KP    19.58%
JCP   16.79%

2005 (last "normal" election)
LDP   30.92%
DPJ    26.45%
KP     23.97%
JCP    18.67%

With KP support the LDP is sure to win.  Key question would be the extent of the CDP recovery from the 2017 DP fiasco with JCP vote by winning back the old DPJ vote that went to TPFA and how much JRP eats into the rest of the TPFA vote.

It seems CDP will come in a strong second and JRP will beat out TPFA for forth.  If so even on a day that Koike is at the top of the ticket then this is a sign that in the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections TPFA will get wiped out with LDP getting KP back as an ally and a CDP surge.  The level of the TPFA meltdown will be more clear by the vote shares each party receives in the by-election.  

[xelas81]

There will be a prefecture assembly by-election also on Sunday for Tokyo 北区(Kita) district.  This will give us a sense of how much TPFA has fallen since 2017 even with Koike at the top of the ticket.  The by-election is necessitated by a TPFA MLA with a YP background going on last year to be elected to the Upper House on a JRP ticket.  

In the fray are LDP (with KP support), CDP (with JCP support), JRP, TPFA, and HNP (LDD splinter and affiliated with PNHK).

All 5 candidates are women
 

There appears also to three other by-elections for the assembly.
Ota ward, Hino City, Kitatama third (Chofu City, Komae City)
https://2020tochijisen.tokyo/byelection/index.html

[jaichind]

There will be a prefecture assembly by-election also on Sunday for Tokyo 北区(Kita) district.  This will give us a sense of how much TPFA has fallen since 2017 even with Koike at the top of the ticket.  The by-election is necessitated by a TPFA MLA with a YP background going on last year to be elected to the Upper House on a JRP ticket.  

In the fray are LDP (with KP support), CDP (with JCP support), JRP, TPFA, and HNP (LDD splinter and affiliated with PNHK).

All 5 candidates are women
 

There appears also to three other by-elections for the assembly.
Ota ward, Hino City, Kitatama third (Chofu City, Komae City)
https://2020tochijisen.tokyo/byelection/index.html

Yesh, but TPFA is not running in any of them so it is not as interesting as 北区(Kita).

In 日野市(Hino City), a LDP incumbent passed away leading to the by-election.  Back in 2017 it was

TPFA      41.11% (has DPJ background)
LDP       22.27%
JCP        21.10%
DP rebel 15.51%

This time TPFA is not even running which speaks to how weak TPFA has become.  It will be LDP(backed by KP) vs JCP (backed by CDP) and will be an easy LDP win.


In 北多摩(Kitatama) Third in 2017 it was

TPFA        34.17% (DP background)
KP           22.92%
JCP          20.32%
LDP         19.83%
DP rebel     2.76%

This time around it will be LDP(backed by KP) vs JCP (backed by CDP) vs TSN (minor Left).  Again should be an easy win for LDP especially with the Center-Left vote split.  TPFA also failed to even come up with an candidate.


In 大田区 (Ota) back in 2017 it was

TPFA           29.62%
LDP            20.89%
KP              17.94%
JCP             14.52%
JRP               7.22%
DP                5.63%
Minor Right    3.21%
HNP              0.74%

This time around it will be LDP (backed by KP) vs CDP (backed by JCP) vs JRP vs HNP plus two other minor independents.  Not having a TPFA candidate plus KP support also means the LDP should have an easy victory here.

So LDP should be set to sweep all 4 by-election and 北区(Kita) will tell us about what strength TPFA have left.  I suspect TPFA will fall to single digits in 北区(Kita).  If I bad to guess I think 北区(Kita) will be something like

LDP-KP     46
CDP-JCP   30
JRP          14
TPFA          8
HNP           2

[jaichind]

Voting will end in about an hour.  It seems turnout is much higher than expected and should reach 56% which is only down from around 59% in 2016.  Most had expected turnout in the 40s.   This should be good for 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) and then 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at the expense of others.  My guess now is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.80 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.90 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.45 million votes

With 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at slightly over 60% of the vote.

[jaichind]

Voting ends. Election called for Koike



Exit polls seems to indicate that 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) got around 60% of the vote like I predicted.  It seems that 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) will slightly edge out 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) for 3rd place with 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) in a solid second.  Exit polls seems to mostly match my predictions

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls seems to have it at

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)             58.5%     or around 3.70 million
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)     14.5%      or around 0.90 million
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)                 10.5%     or around 0.65 million
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)             9.5%     or around 0.60 million
Rest                                            7%       or around 0.45 million    

assuming turnout at around 55%.  Turnout most likely is more like 56% so the vote will be a bit higher than this.  Seems like higher turnout helped 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)

Exit poll also has a massive gender gap in favor of 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) in terms of the women vote.  It seems the CDP/center-left men vote went 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) while the CDP/center-left women vote went 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls seems to indicate that 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) won around 53% of the men vote and around 65% of the women vote.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll of Tokyo voters

Abe Cabinet support/oppose  39/61

Party support
LDP        33
KP           4
TPFA        1
JRP          4
DPP         1
CDP         7
RS           2
JCP          4
Ind        42

LDP-KP at 37 is not that hot for ruling bloc.  It sort of implies a Tokyo PR vote of around 41% or so which is a swlng of 3% against LDP-KP relative to 2019 Upper House elections and same as 2017 Lower House elections.