Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

Who would be the next leader after Abe goes? Omura? Okada?

Either 岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio) or 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  Both are LDP faction leaders and there are views that it is "their turn."  Ishiba would have won the 2012 LDP Prez race over Abe if it the rules for the run-off were not a vote by MPs but a vote MPs and LDP chapters like the first round. 小泉 進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō), son of old LDP PM Koizumi, is popular as well but in the hierarchy based LDP he is unlikely to run nor win despite his popularity.  He will have to wait until he has more tenure. 

[jaichind]

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https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/18/national/anti-nuclear-niigata-governor-eyes-resignation-amid-sex-scandal-move-likely-impact-restart-key-power-plant/#.WtgLDDUpC2c

Not sure even why this is such a scandal but yes he is gone.  My understanding is that this involved him and some escorts which he might or might not known were escorts.  He is not even married.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

he resigned over that?

[Oryxslayer]

So, if the North Korea news is truthful, how much does it suck or rock to be Abe right now?

^{I'm fairly sure its suck}

[jaichind]

So, if the North Korea news is truthful, how much does it suck or rock to be Abe right now?

^{I'm fairly sure its suck}

Obviously suck ..

[jaichind]

Some more polls came in .. .Abe approval curve continue to head down and getting close to Summer 2017 levels

[Kingpoleon]

Who would be the next leader after Abe goes? Omura? Okada?

Either 岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio) or 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  Both are LDP faction leaders and there are views that it is "their turn."  Ishiba would have won the 2012 LDP Prez race over Abe if it the rules for the run-off were not a vote by MPs but a vote MPs and LDP chapters like the first round. 小泉 進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō), son of old LDP PM Koizumi, is popular as well but in the hierarchy based LDP he is unlikely to run nor win despite his popularity.  He will have to wait until he has more tenure. 

Koizumi might just attempt a Newt Gingrich/Gerald Ford-style takeover of the party establishment by younger politicians.

[jaichind]

Koizumi might just attempt a Newt Gingrich/Gerald Ford-style takeover of the party establishment by younger politicians.

This took place in 2001 when former PM 橋本 龍太郎(Hashimoto Ryūtarō) was expected to win but Koizumi senior won as the renegade candidate.  But back in 2001 LDP was in the dumps in the polls and in crisis.  Even if Abe were to leave such a situation does not seem to exist as LDP support seems to be holding up well.

[jaichind]

The reason for not backing Abe Cabinet which is "I do not trust PM Abe" (dark purple) hits a record high and surpasses Summer of 2017 levels even as overall lack of support seems to match 2017 Summer peaks.

[jaichind]

http://www.asahi.com/politics/yoron/

Has the Ashai cabinet approval with history with breakdown by gender and age.

Abe Cabinet approval in April is 31%.  But the approval level among women is 23% which matches women approval of the DPJ Noda cabinet right before the landslide defeat of DPJ in 2012.   Abe Cabinet approval among men is 40% which is not that great but only somewhat below 2015 levels for Abe Cabinet.

Abe Cabinet approvals for 60-69 and 70+ are around levels of support for these age groups for the DPJ Noda cabinet back in late 2012.  Abe Cabinet approval for the 40-49 and 50-59 are low but around the same as the lows in Summer of 2015 and Summer of 2017.   Abe cabinet approval for 20-29 and 30-39 a bit on the low side but not that different from other levels achieved in for the Abe Cabinet.

So the Abe Cabinet approval fall is concentrated among women and the elderly and much more contained in other demographics. 

[jaichind]

It seems the DP-HP merge will create a party not called DPJ but 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) or I guess NPP (for now as there is no official English name yet.)  The new party simplified name will be called 國民 just like DP had the simplified name 民進.  What i funny is that these two names matches the two main ROC parties (long time ruling party (and my part) 國民黨 and now ruling party 民進黨.)

A bunch of Right wing MPs of HP will not join and will form their own niche Right wing opposition party while a bunch of Left wing MPs of DP will not join and will most likely end up in DCP if DCP would take them.

[jaichind]

Here we go again.  It seems yesterday 森山 裕(Moriyama Hiroshi) chairman of LDP Diet Affairs Committee indicated that a snap election should not be ruled out if the opposition insist on calling a vote of no confidence over Abe scandals.  Abe came out to deny this as a possibility.   

[Lachi]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

[Sestak]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

Which is exactly why Abe called the election early. He has another five years to bounce back from this and as soon as his approvals are high he'll immediately call another snap election.

[MaxQue]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

Which is exactly why Abe called the election early. He has another five years to bounce back from this and as soon as his approvals are high he'll immediately call another snap election.

He doesn't have 5 years, if he stays impopular, the LDP will get rid of him very soon.

[Lachi]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

Which is exactly why Abe called the election early. He has another five years to bounce back from this and as soon as his approvals are high he'll immediately call another snap election.

The LDP leadership election happens in September. Japan will have a new PM after that election, it's almost certain right now.

[jaichind]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

I doubt it.  I think even if an election is called now the LDP-KP will still win but with a reduced majority.  Abe was not that popular back in Oct 2017 but still LDP-KP barely made it to 2/3 majority.  For now there are not just not enough CDP and NPP quality candidates to overcome LDP in the various marginal seats.
If an election is called today I think it would be

LDP    240
KP       30
JRP      15
CDP     90
NPP      50  (HP-DP fusion)
JCP      16
SDP      2
LP         2
Others 20 (various ex-DP ind., LDP rebels, Right ex-HP ind etc etc)

[jaichind]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

Which is exactly why Abe called the election early. He has another five years to bounce back from this and as soon as his approvals are high he'll immediately call another snap election.

The LDP leadership election happens in September. Japan will have a new PM after that election, it's almost certain right now.

Not so sure about that.  It Abe's approval numbers stabilize around current levels then he is a 50/50 show to win in Sept 2018.  If it gets worse he might be out in June.  So what the Abe Cabinet approval numbers look like between now and the summer would be critical.

[Lachi]

I wonder what the Aoki index would look lile right now.

[jaichind]

I wonder what the Aoki index would look lile right now.

Looking at Abe cabinet support and party support curve




It is around 69.  Not good but not catastrophic.  Back in Summer 2017 it was as low as 65.  Main reason why it holding up is because LDP support has mostly held up amid opposition chaos. 

[jaichind]

In 2017 elections LDP-KP PR vote was 45.8% while the sum of HP CDP SDP and JCP is 46.8% which are very similar.  So a map of LDP-KP vs HP-CDP-SDP-JCP is fairly close to a Japan version of PVI map.  Red is ruling bloc leads (LDP-KP) and Blue is opposition leads (HP-CDP-SDP-JCP)


edit: fixed typo

[Lachi]

You got the colors the wrong way around I think, I would have assumed that red was LDP-KP on that map, also how it says ruling party under the red scale.

[jaichind]

You got the colors the wrong way around I think, I would have assumed that red was LDP-KP on that map, also how it says ruling party under the red scale.

Yes. typo ... will fix

[jaichind]

Aoki index based on different pollsters.  Ranges from 59 to 74.  Not very good but not catastrophic 

[jaichind]

HP-DP merger party 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) (NDP) (not sure this is the official English name of the party) kicks off