The Shift: A 2010 - 2028 TL

[Sestak]

November 2, 2010



Hello and welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2010 midterm elections, I'm Anderson Cooper. Tonight,
 the Republicans try to defend majorities in both houses of Congress, as they hold 250 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 51 of the 100 seats in the US Senate. The Democrats, meanwhile,
 are trying to put an end to eight straight years of complete Republican control on Capitol Hill–They need to make 2 gains in the Senate to take control of the upper chamber, and 33 gains in the House if Nancy Pelosi is to take the Speaker's gavel. Recent polls indicate that they are likely to be successful in the Senate, while polls in the House indicate a much closer battle, with the slight advantage to the Republicans. This election serves as a referendum on both Congress and the White House, who have been unable to pass substantial legislation due to a growing rift between the President and Republican Congressional caucus. Tonight, America votes for the entire House of Representative and one-third of the Senate seats, as well as the vast majority of state governorships.
It is now 6 PM Eastern and polls have closed in two states with two Senate races and to call one of those races right now, Wolf Blitzer.



In Kentucky, Rand Paul will win the Senate seat being vacated by Jim Bunning over state Attorney General Jack Conway.



Kentucky – Senate
0% Reporting
Rand Paul (R)
Jack Conway (D)

Bunning, of course, one one of the most critical voices against the President in his own party, and was forced to retire by party leaders after tensions between the two reached a boiling point.

Moving on, in Indiana we have no projection in the race between incumbent Senator Evan Bayh and Republican Congressman Michael Pence, though exit polls do point to a Bayh victory.

 

Indiana – Senate
<1% Reporting
Michael Pence (R) – 68%
Evan Bayh (D) (incumbent) – 29%

Some results, but with less than 1000 votes counted, there's not much we can make out from this.

Thank you, Wolf. With the Rand Paul victory the Republicans are now guaranteed at least 30 seats in the Senate, while the Democrats will have at least 34.

It's an interesting race in Indiana – Mike Pence was not the first choice of the NRSC. But former Senator Dan Coats declined to run, and then a lot of people in Republican circles were talking about potentially drafting the Vice President to challenge Evan Bayh, people saying he'd be a strong candidate, but he also said that he...that he was going to remain Vice President. And so Congressman Pence got up and took the nomination. There's been a lot of concern raised from several sides about Pence, who is a...a very socially conservative Republican, as to whether or not he'll be able to work with the President, and a lot of people have raised fears that he may become another Senator Bunning when it comes to the President's agenda. And I imagine, that's a major plus for the...for the Bayh reelection campaign.

We have plenty of Senate, House, and Governors' races tonight – you're watching CNN's coverage of the 2010 midterm elections, we'll be back after the break.


SENATE: R 31 D 33

[TheSaint250]

Excited for this!

[Don Vito Corleone]

Excited for this!

[erſatz-york]

Wow. Can't wait for more!

[wxtransit]

Interesting!

[Sestak]

7 PM EDT

It is now 7 PM, and polls have just closed in four states with key Senate races - and CNN can project all four.



Alright Anderson, and let's start with the big one. In Florida, CNN projects that the incumbent governor Charlie Crist has been elected into the Senate in the seat being vacated by fellow Republican George LeMieux.



Florida – Senate
29% reporting
Charlie Crist (R) – 61%
Kendrick Meek (D) – 35%

Almost 30% of the result already in, and with this combined with the exits, we can say confidently that the governor will hold on to that Republican seat.

In Georgia, Republican Johnny Isakson will be re-elected.



Georgia – Senate
2% reporting
Johnny Isakson (R) – 60%
Michael Thurmond (D) – 33%

The Senator safely holds on to his seat against Labor Commissioner Mike Thurmond.

In South Carolina, another of the President's harshest critics in his own party will be re-elected, Jim DeMint holds on to his seat.



South Carolina – Senate
0% reporting
Jim DeMint (R)
Vic Rawl (D)

And finally, in Vermont, we can project that incumbent Pat Leahy will win reelection overwhelmingly to a seventh term.



Vermont – Senate
6% reporting
Patrick Leahy (D) – 85%
Len Britton (R) – 8%

Of course, the big call here has got to be the Florida one. This was not expected to be called this early, and this may be a promising sign for Republicans who were widely expected to lose the Senate tonight. Republican turnout surprisingly strong in Florida, but the million dollar question is: Is turnout up because of Charlie Crist, or are we going to see strong Republican turnout nationwide?

SENATE: R 34 D 34

[Deblano]

>Charlie Crist winning as a Republican

Is there less of a TEA Party movement in this TL?

[The Govanah Jake]

Interesting!

[SamTilden2020]

What senators are in for 111st (different than OTL)? I presume Coleman, Stevens, Dole, and Sununu are still in?

[Sestak]

Alright, thank you Wolf. The Florida result, a major shock and could prove forboding for the Democrats in the night to come–Again, Charlie Crist was favored in the race, but we did not expect to call the race at poll closing. Charlie Crist, the current governor, who faced a rather intense primary campaign against the more conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, bu he was able to win partly by getting out the message that he would be more willing to work with the President than Rubio. And really, I think, that primary got so much attention that the one who came out the winner was automatically favored, and combined with Crist's popularity as governor, Kendrick Meek was unable to make up that ground.

And now, before we go any further, let's go to Jake Tapper for the governor's races in those four states.

Yes, so, in Vermont, CNN can project that Democrat Peter Shumlin has been elected, succeeding Republican Jim Douglas.



Vermont – Governor
7% reporting
Peter Shumlin (D) – 68%
Brian Dubie (R) – 29%

Shumlin defeats Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie.

Moving on, there are three races where we have no projection.

In Florida, in the eleciton for the governorship being vacated by soon-to-be Senator Charlie Crist, it's looking like a neck-and neck race between Rick Scott and Alex Sink, and we have no projection.

 

Florida – Governor
33% reporting
Rick Scott (R) – 47%
Alex Sink (D) – 46%

This one looks like it's going to be a close one for most of the night.

Also, in Georgia, we can make no projection for the race between Sonny Perdue and former governor Roy Barnes.

 

Georgia – Governor
2% reporting
Sonny Perdue (R) – 53%
Roy Barnes (D) – 46%


And in South Carolina, we can make no projection in the race between Nikki Haley and Representative Jim Clyburn.

  

South Carolina – Governor
0% reporting
Nikki Haley (R)
Jim Clyburn (D)

Yes, thank you Jake, and another major scare for the Republicans in South Carolina, Jim Clyburn's been making up a lot of ground in the polls, which are now showing quite a competitive race in the state.

CNN political commentator Van Jones:
And this, this is something we've seen around the country, with quite a strong push by Democrats trying to win governorships, trying to gain Senate seats, trying to overcome a large House majority. And they've benefited, I think, from having a more visible platform. A lot of Democratic candidates, in light of the Republican government's failure to reform the current healthcare system,
 have been pushing for universal healthcare, and the idea's gained a lot of traction.

Van, let me just interrupt you for a moment, as there's another major Senate projection we can make right now.



In Indiana, CNN can project that Senator Evan Bayh has won reelection over Congressman Mike Pence.



Indiana – Senate
24% reporting
Evan Bayh (D) – 52%
Michael Pence – 45% (R)

SENATE: R 34 D 35

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I can't wait for more about this world to reveal itself. Seems like there's a lot to discover so I can't wait! Looks to be a promising TL

[Sestak]

>Charlie Crist winning as a Republican

Is there less of a TEA Party movement in this TL?

What senators are in for 111st (different than OTL)? I presume Coleman, Stevens, Dole, and Sununu are still in?

Okay, a quick note on questions in general: I'm not really going to answer them during this election night (unless they're corrections of something I got wrong). Most of the answers to potential questions will reveal themselves as the night goes on (and some of them can already be found, if you look hard enough). If you guys have questions unanswered once we've moved on from election night, you can ask me then and I'll answer them.

Also, a couple other things:

1. I'm not actually that familiar with the political contributors on CNN. I literally just watch them on election nights and that's it. So I apologize in advance if I have someone say something they wouldn't have said OTL.

2. I'm also not going to be paying attention to the chronology of pictures I use–Even if it's a picture that hadn't been taken yet or would never have been taken in the TL. I'm prioritizing proper size (especially for the side-by-side of the candidates) over continuity with these. For instance, the Haley image is her portrait as UN Ambassador, which clearly could not have been used by CNN in 2010.

[TheSaint250]

Alright, thank you Wolf. The Florida result, a major shock and could prove forboding for the Democrats in the night to come–Again, Charlie Crist was favored in the race, but we did not expect to call the race at poll closing. Charlie Crist, the current governor, who faced a rather intense primary campaign against the more conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, bu he was able to win partly by getting out the message that he would be more willing to work with the President than Rubio. And really, I think, that primary got so much attention that the one who came out the winner was automatically favored, and combined with Crist's popularity as governor, Kendrick Meek was unable to make up that ground.

His willingness to work with Obama was what cost him the election in 2010.  Very interested to see why this helped and how the rest of election night plays out.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Alright, thank you Wolf. The Florida result, a major shock and could prove forboding for the Democrats in the night to come–Again, Charlie Crist was favored in the race, but we did not expect to call the race at poll closing. Charlie Crist, the current governor, who faced a rather intense primary campaign against the more conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, bu he was able to win partly by getting out the message that he would be more willing to work with the President than Rubio. And really, I think, that primary got so much attention that the one who came out the winner was automatically favored, and combined with Crist's popularity as governor, Kendrick Meek was unable to make up that ground.

His willingness to work with Obama was what cost him the election in 2010.  Very interested to see why this helped and how the rest of election night plays out.

I'm pretty sure the current President is a moderate Republican....

[Sestak]

7:30 PM EDT

It is 7:30 PM, polls have just closed in three states with four, yes, four Senate races. Let's go to Wolf Blitzer for a CNN projection.



Yes, four Senate races now closed, and in West Virginia, we can project that Governor Joe Manchin has won the seat previously held by the late Robert Byrd.



West Virginia – Senate
0% reporting
Joe Manchin (D)
John Raese (R)

Then, in North Carolina, we can make no projection in the tight race between incumbent Richard Burr and Kay Hagan.

 

North Carolina – Senate
12% reporting
Richard Burr (R) – 48.8%
Kay Hagan (D) – 48.5%

In Ohio, we can again make no projection in the race between Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman for the seat being vacated by Republican George Voinovich.

 

Ohio – Senate
8% reporting
Rob Portman (R) – 52%
Sherrod Brown (D) – 47%

And also in Ohio, we have no projection in the special election between incumbent apointee Tim Ryan and Congressman Pat Tiberi for the Attorney General's former seat.

 

Ohio – Senate
8% reporting
Pat Tiberi (R) – 54%
Tim Ryan (D) – 46%

Alright yes, so, polls close now for three very important races in Ohio and North Carolina, and the North Carolina one especially, both parties have been bringing in their big stars from surrounding states. The Republicans have brought in senators Allen and Graham–I mean, Lindsey Graham has campaigned more for Senator Burr than he has for Jim DeMint in his own state. And the Democrats too, they've brought in Senator Mark Warner as well. But now let's go to Jake Tapper with some governor's races.

Yes, in the governor's race in Ohio CNN can make no projection, though incumbent governor Ted Strickland is ahead of John Kasich.

 

Ohio – Governor
8% reporting
Ted Strickland (D) – 49.2%
John Kasich (R) – 49.2%

Also, some updates in races where polls have already closed. In Florida, with a just about forty percent of the vote in, Rick Scott maintains a slight lead over Alex Sink.

 

Florida – Governor
39% reporting
Rick Scott (R) – 46.9%
Alex Sink (D) – 46.5%

And in Georgia, the race looking a little bit closer than we expected, still no projection.

 

Georgia – Governor
19% reporting
Sonny Perdue (R) – 51%
Roy Barnes (D) – 47%

SENATE: R 34 D 36

[Sestak]

8 PM EDT

It is now 8 PM on the East Coast, and polls have just closed in 17 states, including for eight Senate races. Let's go to Wolf for a projection.



Alright, in Maryland, we can project that Barbara Mikulski, the longtime incumbent, has been reelected.



Maryland – Senate
0% reporting
Barbara Mikulski (D)
Eric Wargotz (R)

In Illinois, Senator Barack Obama will easily defeat State Senator Kirk Dillard.



Illinois – Senate
1% reporting
Barack Obama (D) – 49%
Kirk Dillard (R) – 50%

In New Hampshire, a Democratic pickup. Current Governor John Lynch, CNN projects, has defeated Kelly Ayotte for the seat being vacated by Judd Gregg.



New Hampshire – Senate
6% reporting
John Lynch (D) – 60%
Kelly Ayotte (R) – 32%

Then, in Oklahoma, we can project that incumbent Senator Dr. Tom Coburn has been re-elected.



Oklahoma – Senate
0% reporting
Tom Coburn (R)
Jim Rogers (D)

And in Alabama, the incumbent Richard Shelby will also win.



Alabama – Senate
0% reporting
Richard Shelby (R)
William Barnes (D)

In Pennsylvania, we have no projection in the race between incumbent Republican Arlen Specter and Democratic Congressman and former 3-star Admiral Joe Sestak.

 

Pennsylvania – Senate
1% reporting
Joe Sestak (D) – 50%
Arlen Specter (R) – 49%

In Missouri, we have no projection between Robin Carnahan and Congressman Roy Blunt.

 

Missouri – Senate
1% reporting
Robin Carnahan (D) – 58%
Roy Blunt (R) – 39%

And finally, in South Dakota, we have no projection between Senator John Thune and Representative Stephanie Sandlin.

 

South Dakota – Senate
0% reporting
John Thune (R)
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)

Alright, thank you Wolf. And let's talk about Pennsylvania a bit, because initially, it looked like that was a race that was going to be won easily by Arlen Specter, but later on, things got a little bit complicated, right Van?

Yes, and what we have seen is Joe Sestak running a very, very effective campaign, emphasizing his credentials and his continued opposition to the Iraq war through both of the previous two administrations, and also, we've seen him come out swinging against "Don't Ask, Don't Tell", and he's really been able to rally the more progressive wing of the party with that, while his more moderate economic views are able to satisfy the more centrist wing. And on the opposite side, Arlen Specter has not been able to do that. He's faced a somewhat bitter primary against Pat Toomey, and that left a lot of the right wing of the party somewhat unhappy with him. And so Joe Sestak has been able to climb back up into this thing, and...

...and we've seen him defy the odds like this before, right? I mean, he's twice gone against the national swing, first in 2006 with his successful challenge in an 06 midterm where the Republicans slightly gained nationally, and then somehow, he just barely holds onto his seat in the Republican wave of 2008.

But now, let's go to Jake Tapper, who has thirteen governors' races.

SENATE: R 36 D 39

[Kamala]

Go Stephanie ! Kick Skeletor outta congress!

[JoeyOCanada]

Is Obama not President in this TL?

[Sestak]

Is Obama not President in this TL?

No, he's not. I'm willing to say that much.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Did Kerry win in 04

[Sestak]

Alright, and let's start in Maine, where independent Eliot Cutler has been elected governor, succeeding Democrat John Baldacci.



Maine – Governor
0% reporting
Eliot Cutler (I)
Libby Mitchell (D)
Paul LePage (R)

In Connecticut, Dan Malloy has defeated Michael Fedele.



Connecticut – Governor
6% reporting
Dannel Malloy (D) – 65%
Michael Fedele (R) - 29%

In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren will defeat former Senator Kerry Healey.



Massachusetts – Governor
0% reporting
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Kerry Healey (R)

She will become Massachusetts' first elected female governor. For Healey, her third straight statewide election loss in as many cycles.

In New Hampshire, another Democratic victory, Maggie Hassan succeeds Senator-elect John Lynch.



New Hampshire – Governor
6% reporting
Maggie Hassan (D) – 54%
John Stephen (R) – 37%

In Maryland, Martin O'Malley has been re-elected.



Maryland – Governor
0% reporting
Martin O'Malley (D)
Bob Ehrlich (R)

Down in Alabama, Robert Bentley will be the next governor.



Alabama – Governor
0% reporting
Robert Bentley (R)
Ron Sparks (D)

In Oklahoma, the Republican Mary Fallin will take the seat previously held by Democrat Brad Henry.



Oklahoma – Governor
4% reporting
Mary Fallin (R) – 60%
Drew Edmondson – 40% (D)

In Tennessee, Republican Bill Haslam will win.



Tennessee – Governor
17% reporting
Bill Haslam (R) – 56%
Mike McWherter (D) – 42%

In South Dakota, Dennis Daugaard has been elected. The Lieutenant Governor defeats Democratic State Senator Scott Heidepriem.



South Dakota – Governor
0% reporting
Dennis Daugaard (R)
Scott Heidepriem (D)

In Texas, Rick Perry will get a record third term. Perry defeats Houston mayor Bill White.



Texas – Governor
3% reporting
Rick Perry (R) – 47%
Bill White (D) – 49%

Now, CNN cannot project in Illinois, the race between incumbent Pat Quinn and U.S. Representative Mark Kirk.

 

Illinois – Governor
1% reporting
Mark Kirk (R) – 52%
Pat Quinn (D) – 44%

CNN also cannot project in Michigan, the race there between Kerry's Attorney General and former Detroit mayor Dennis Archer and Representative Pete Hoekstra.

 

Michigan – Governor
10% reporting
Pieter Hoekstra (R) – 52%
Dennis Archer (D) – 45%

And in Pennsylvania, in the race between Dan Onorato and Tom Corbett, there is no projection, but Onorato does lead.

 

Pennsylvania – Governor
1% reporting
Dan Onorato (D) – 53%
Tom Corbett (R) – 47%

SENATE: R 36 D 39

[Sestak]

By the way, guys, feel free to make predictions on who will win outstanding races, who's running in the non-closed races, and also other facts about the scenario I haven't revealed yet. I'd like to see what you guys think.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Prediction: Alex Sink wins

[Sestak]

Alright, let's talk about that pair of Ohio Senate races. First, we have the race for the open seat, between two pretty major candidates. On the Democratic side, you've got Sherrod Brown, who has been, along with Russ Feingold, one of the leaders of the progressive movement that's really been the story of the election cycle. He's got a lot of passionate supporters–not just in Ohio, but over the country–and they've been organizing for progressive Democrats throughout this cycle. And his opponent, Rob Portman, well, he's a former Congressman, and then he was the budget director for the Chafee administration until this March, when he resigned to focus on his Senate run. So, well, you've got a guy who's known for his conservative fiscal policy against a progressive hero who's been railing against Wall Street, against the big banks, and he's lambasted the lack of regulatory efforts after the financial crisis of 08.

And of course, you have the second race, for Attorney General DeWine's former seat, of course, which is now held by the appointee, Democrat Tim Ryan. It's normally not considered a good idea to pick a Senator for your cabinet whose governor is of the opposite party, but allowing Ted Strickland to pick a Democrat was actually part of a deal that allowed the president's judicial nominees to go through.

And actually, let's get some updates in those Ohio races, as well as some others: Wolf Blitzer has a Key Race Alert.






In Ohio, Rob Portman is holding a narrow lead over Sherrod Brown, who has made it a little bit closer.

 

Ohio – Senate
37% reporting
Rob Portman (R) – 51%
Sherrod Brown (D) – 48%

But Portman now has got to be thinking about Cuyahoga County. The Cleveland, of course, heavily Democratic, and doesn't come in until late in the count, and his lead is likely going to need to be better than this if he wants to overcome the Democratic votes in Cuyahoga. Meanwhile, a similar story in the other race, though Pat Tiberi does hold a slightly larger lead.

 

Ohio – Senate
37% reporting
Pat Tiberi (R) – 52%
Tim Ryan (D) – 47%

In North Carolina, it is virtually tied between Senator Burr and Kay Hagan.

 

North Carolina – Senate
26% reporting
Richard Burr (R) – 49.0%
Kay Hagan (D) – 48.9%

In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak has opened up an early lead as results from deep blue Philadelphia come in.

 

Pennsylvania – Senate
13% reporting
Joe Sestak (D) – 61%
Arlen Specter (R) – 37%

And in the Florida Governor's race, the margins are razor-thin between Rick Scott and Alex Sink.

 

Florida – Governor
57% reporting
Rick Scott (R) – 46.55%
Alex Sink (D) – 46.53%

SENATE: R 36 D 39

[Sestak]

8:22 PM EDT

Alright, the night is young, but we do have some results in, let's take a look at the Senate map.

SENATE: R 35 D 40

The Democrats, of course, have already gained one seat in New Hampshire, which... which is a Chafee state, which is quite significant. And they need a net gain of two to take the chamber. But let's look at the actual seats that are there. They are at 40 right now. Going to the deep blue West Coast,
 they have incumbents in Hawaii, California, Oregon, and Washington who are all expected to win, that takes them to 44. New York is 45. The incumbent in Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln, is expected to win, as is the outgoing Minority Leader, Harry Reid, in Nevada. That takes them to 47. Russ Feingold in Wisconsin is 48. And in Colorado, there's another Democratic-held seat that's expected to stay Democratic, that's 49.

So it looks like they've got 49. Now they need 51. Now you start to wonder, where do the other two come from? Well, here we've got Ohio, where there are two races. The incumbent Tim Ryan, as well as Sherrod Brown, who's run an electrifying campaign, the numbers are looking solid from them right now. So there's your 51.

And even without automatically giving them the Ohio races, they've only got to win two out of a number of them, including both the Ohio races as well as the races in Pennsylvania, North Carolina,
Rhode Island, Missouri, and Louisiana. So it's looking to be a good night for Democrats at least on the Senate side of things.

And over on the governor side of things, we've got a projection to make... Let's go to Jake Tapper.




In South Carolina, Nikki Haley has defeated Jim Clyburn.



South Carolina – Governor
20% reporting
Nikki Haley (R) - 61%
Jim Clyburn (D) - 36%

The polls showed that this one may be close, but at the end of the day, it looks like Clyburn didn't get the African-American turnout he was hoping for, and as many South Carolinians came out for Jim DeMint, that pushed Haley over the line.