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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  California 2004
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Author Topic: California 2004  (Read 391 times)
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« on: October 23, 2017, 05:36:34 pm »

Bush lost it by 9.95%, a strong performance for a Republican in recent years. Given that the Bush 04 campaign was extremely conservative, why did he do so well in the state?
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2017, 06:16:28 pm »

Bush had the two advantages in the 2004 campaign that played particularly well in CA (and also in states like New Jersey):

The first was a strong appeal to Hispanic voters, not just because of his pro immigration stances, but also because of polices like no child left behind and the expansion of the child tax credit that polled well with Hispanic voters - which is obviously critical to getting good numbers in California.

The second strength Bush had was that because of 9/11 he could utilise the national security card, that historically had been a republican advantage but had faded after the Cold War.
In particular the tough on terror stance played well with socially liberal suburbanites who had otherwise been trending away from the GOP, but suddenly moved back in the wake of having national security issues put back in the forefront in politics.

Both of these factors account for the Bushs strength in CA, and haven't been replicated by any republican since.
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