OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Badger]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

Eh, I think Russell or O'Connor would've wiped the floor with any of the Republicans in the Franklin County portion, honestly.  I'd also argue that Franklin County could be as much as 30-33% of the electorate in the special (certainly in the GE) due to massive anti-Republican turnout from affluent, educated suburbanites.  I really can't stress enough how toxic Trump and the Republican brand are here atm, even among folks who voted for Trump in 2018; Gahanna, Dublin, New Albany, and Worthington are gonna see NoVA circa 2017-sized swings, the Columbus, Clintonville, and Bexley portions were always going to give the the Democratic nominee huge margins, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if even Westerville ends up giving O'Connor a low double-digit margin.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Balderson didn't come within single-digits of winning a single city or township in the Franklin County portion of the district. 

Even New Albany and Dublin? Seems a bit of a stretch. It wouldn't shock me much if Balderson won either.

Remember, he's not a Trumpy conservative, but more of a standard Central Ohio Republican (i.e. still quite conservative, but not a bomb throwing nut about it).

[Badger]

If Lamb could win PA-18, then O Connor can win OH-12.

Except Balderson is a solid quality candidate, Saccone sucked. Also, Lamb is a better candidate than O'Connor.

[Badger]

Danny O'Connor is trying to pull a Conor Lamb. Only problem, Balderson is no Saccone and O'Connor is no Conor.

[Badger]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

It’s just another example of how Republicans are more adept at controlling the narrative, and forcing Democrats to posture themselves in awkward ways to try and get votes. They do this with many issues. They “warn” Americans that Democrats want to take their guns away, raise taxes on everyone, have open borders, etc. And what do Democrats do? They run scared/back away. “No, no, I fully support the second amendment! I want to lower taxes on almost everyone! I agree, we do have to protect our borders!” While Republicans never deny/cower away from the fact that they fully support the NRA and will do nothing to directly address our gun crisis, lower taxes on the wealthy, and deport millions. It’s no wonder Democrats are seen as spineless and lacking in any principles. Republicans dominated the narrative on gay marriage for decades, and Democrats let them do it (how many Democrats said “I believe marriage is between a man and a woman” before public opinion polls showed support for gay marriage at 50%?)

Democrats need to grow a pair and not allow Republicans to dominate the narrative by turning Democratic positions/politicians (or even just words sometimes) into boogeymen. They should wear Republican attacks on their ideas as a badge of honor, and stand up for them while showing that they work.

What whining.

The Democrats control the narative on spending on almost every domestic spending program.  In fact the next thing to eternal life is a domestic spending program.

And with that, you get put on ignore long after you should've been.

[Badger]

The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

No

Amended answer: F#@k no.

[Badger]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

Aren't her recount hopes more focused on the primary for the special election rather than 4 the General in November, iirc?

[Badger]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

In what way was this ever Safe R?

It's Limo, duh!

[Badger]

Other simply means that the absentee ballot was cast by someone who has not voted in a party primary or voted in a minor party primary (there has been one Green party absentee voter).

Ah, so Other is actually likely to be first time Ohio voters (or OH-12 voters? would they be "other " if they moved into the district since the last primary they voted in?), rather than actual 3rd party voters?

A shade better for O'Conner if so, as young voters are likely to skew Democratic.

[Badger]

A boon for Troy Balderson in a district where the average of two independent polls indicate the president is popular.

Monmouth 6/11/18

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_061118/

Approval split of 48-47

JMC Analytics 6/17/18

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Approval split of 54-40

Yes, thank you for posting month old polls. Quality analysis, kid

Oh ho ho! Noted Republican RRH poster Andrew 1918 (aka on Atlas as Limo"Liberal") certainly isn't afraid to shame himself with sock account hilarity.

Oh Andrew, you utter jpke, fraud and troll scamp!

[Badger]

O'Connor won't get 48% in Delaware County.

[Badger]

Now that we are rolling into Special Election Season in OH US-REP CD-12 let's take a brief look at a few relevant items....

Let's start with the vote share by County within OH CD-12 Precincts....



So basically the concept of vote share over three election cycles using the topline election (US_PRES '16, OH-GOV '14, US PRES '12) is to be able to adjust data to control for voter turnout differentials as well as population growth rates within a given CD....

Basically, what we see here is that Franklin and Delaware County collectively account for ~ 60% of the Vote Share within the CD, and have essentially been a growing segment of the electorate between '12 and '16....

Licking County has been a consistent ~ 20% of OH CD-12 Vote Share, and obviously will be a major contributor to any CD-12 Special Election Results in August 2018....

The other Four Counties precincts located within CD-12 ('12 > '18 account for the remaing 20% of the Vote Share---- (Marion, Morrow, Muskigum,  and Richland).

Now let's take a peak at the 2012 to 2016 US PRES vote swings by County within CD-12.



So here we see a dramatic increase in Democratic support within the Franklin County portion of CD-12, as well as to a lesser extent within Delaware County, but also some major swings towards Trump in other Counties within the precincts of CD-12....

Now let's look at the raw Total Vote DEM-REP Margin Changes between 2012 and 2016 for US PRES by County...



So here we start to see the raw power of massive swings among the heavily Upper-Income Anglo precincts of Franklin County between '12 and '16....

Honestly, I don't think the 'Pubs have yet hit rock bottom within these Franklin County precincts, but my suspicion is that O'Connor will likely outperform HRC, despite the "Trump Tax Cuts that nobody really experiences in the actual deductions on their Paychecks....

DEMS win '16 US-PRES in Franklin County precincts +36k and +22% Swings even excluding 3rd Party Votes....

Delaware County is obviously Ground Zero.... DEMS don't need to necessarily win Delaware County in CD-12 OH SE results, but just keep the PUB Margins as both % and RAW VOTE down to something more like ~ +7-10k R.... a 54-46 R win in Delaware County might be sufficient for a DEM win in CD-12...

Licking County and Muskigum County are a real test of if a LIB DEM can regain Obama '12 voters that defected to Trump....  Obama narrowly won Muskigum precincts with OH CD-12, and in Licking managed to bag a 42-56 R loss to Romney in '12....

I haven't had a chance to run all of these precinct numbers that I have for OH from '04 > '16, but to me it's starting to look like a potential combo scene between the relatively solidly Republican suburbs of South Pittsburgh moving hard Dem (Delaware County maybe less so???), but with a dramatically growing Dem base within the Franklin County portions of OH CD-12, where you really didn't have any comparison within PA-18 other than one township in South Allegheny (Mt Lebanon) that essentially swung dramatically DEM from '12 to '16 similar to the Franklin County precincts of OH CD-12....

What you did have in PA CD-18 were Ancestral DEMs in the SW portion of the County that although Lamb narrowly lost, he was able to replicate Obama '08 numbers in Fayette and Washington Counties....

At this point we have no real evidence whatsoever that Obama '12 (Or Obama '08 DEMs) will come home for a US House election in Licking and Richland Counties....

I'll continue to run the precinct level numbers, but Trump did have major swings in the Rural and Small Town WWC precincts here, which despite the dramatic swings towards HRC in Franklin, and to a lesser extent Delaware, still makes this a jump ball...

I'll run some more stats later, as I have done with PA-18, AZ-08, AL-SEN and mix in more data that overlaps with US CENSUS Stats in greater detail by Municipality and Township within CD-12....

Thank you as always for an insightful analysis driven post, Nova. FWIW I can answer your question about comparing the Pgh South Hills and Southern Delaware County suburbs. The former is notably more (non-Atlas) blue and shifting harder in that direction than the latter in Ohio.

I didn't realize the Mansfield and Muskingum County portions of the district (relatively small as they are) were so close for Obama. The question I have is, what are the end numbers if O'Conner matches Obama's 2012 margins in the four smaller counties that turned hard to Trump, but maintains Hillary's margins in Franklin and Delaware? Is that enough to actually put him over the top?

As noted by another poster recently, it remains to be seen how much above it's usual 1/3 share of the district's vote Franklin County contributes.

[Badger]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

So? Being from a particular county doesn't always guarantee a home advantage in this sort of environment.

It doesn't always, but regionalism is very strong in Ohio. O'Connor might do better than the benchmark in Licking, maybe even Richland. But Muskingum would be a jaw-dropping surprise.

Not to mention Balderson represents Muskingum (or at least most of the OH-12 portion) in the State Senate. He's not just some business dude known in the local Kiwanis and Elks.

Still, O'Conner could still realistically hit or even slightly exceed the 41% landmark. He'll probably also exceed the mark in Richland. But he'll need to as, again, he's not hitting the high 40's in Delaware.

[Badger]

Should others break heavy for Danny?

To my understanding, "other" should be nearly all people who just didn't vote in the primary. I would assume infrequent voters probably favor the Democrats in this environment (and in most circumstances), but it's hard to be totally certain.

Not to mention younger first-time voters, which will tend heavily democratic.

[Badger]

Excellent post as always Nova. So here's my latest question. How do the various counties current share of the district's early vote compare to their share of the early vote at this time prior to the 2014 and 2012 elections? Would those numbers be at least a reasonable indicator of what the final share of each counties vote will be after election day? I ask because signs that Franklin County is outperforming its usual share, and by how much, are going to be every bit as key as O'Connor's margin there, frankly.

[Badger]

The Balderson campaign has gone dark, really odd:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1022897317920366592

Downright weird. I checked the campaign's Facebook page and went under the events tab just within the last week. The last listed event was right after the primary, I kid you not.

 if it were further before election day, one could maybe hypothesize balderson was husbanding his resources, in terms of both money and stamina, for the final push. But election day is a week and a half from now, so that makes no sense.

Can anyone on the ground corroborate or refute that baldersons campaign is resembling hibernation mode? If this is true, can anyone hypothesize WTF is going on? Seriously, this is completely inexplicable. This is the kind of hunkering down Behavior a candidate usually engages in when some horrible media story has kicked up an absolute sh**tstorm they're trying to weather through.

If this is true, and if it doesn't radically change within the next week, I may have to change my prediction from a narrow balderson win.

[Badger]

Vice president Pence held a rally for balderson in Newark today.

[Badger]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

Given the number of relocated and, especially, first time voters the other category constitutes, I wouldn't be too worried if I was O'Connor

[Badger]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

This. I went to a Republican party dinner during an odd-numbered year where this measure and several other ballot initiatives were all that were up for Statewide vote. Then Senate President Keith Faber, the current GOP nominee for auditor, Express the Republican party's views of the various initiatives. The support for this, IMHO, sorely lacking initiative was urged to be passed by good loyal Republicans in order to nip in the bud any more liberal measures like what they have in Arizona, or at least that was the example he gave.

For exactly the reasons Virginia gave, that reform is a weak pot of piss, and was backed solely to kill off real reform in the crib.

[Badger]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Minor point of order. Hamilton County would have enough population for a single seat I believe.

Otherwise your points are valid, if not understand the problem. Franklin County may only be divided in three, but a quick look at the map shows just how incredibly badly it is split. The one entirely Franklin County District is a clear example of packing all the Democratic votes in one District. The rest of the County letter outside set District are still rather Democratic, but not so much that they aren't thoroughly diluted by dipping into literally six or seven other counties with Republican strongholds, with Ohio 12 being a primary example.

[Badger]

So where does the race stand today?

Dems are outperforming OH CD-12 EV numbers compared to the 2016 Presidential Election significantly in Franklin County.... Additionally much more so than the relatively low-turnout 2014 OH General Election that was pretty much only Statewide and local candidates, with the exception of US House races.

What makes the '14 > '18 EV numbers to date in Franklin County most interesting , is how well Democrats are performing in the Early Vote numbers overall in an "Off-Year Election", (Even more so a Special Election for a US House seat).

Absentee ballots in Off-Year elections in Franklin County CD-12 tend to skew heavily Mail-in-Ballots (ABS-PAPER), which are Much More Republican than a much smaller share of Early In-Person-Voting (ABS-IVO) compared to GE Years....

Sure, it could just be Democratic EV cannibalism, but there is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to massive DEM+ Other margins in EV overall numbers within Franklin County, which accounts for typically about 35% of the Total Vote Share....

Perhaps even more significantly, the EV numbers from Delaware County are pretty mind-boggling by any standard, and could well indicate the 80% of Delaware County that are Suburban/Exurban Columbus (In addition to Delaware City which I still have some major questions on that nobody has yet answered), are expanding upon the +15-20% Dem swings we saw between '12 and '16...

Rock-Ribbed Upper Incomes 'Burbs of Delaware County are looking potentially shaky, just like the Rock-Ribbed Upper Incomes 'Burbs of South Allegheny did in January of this Year...

Ebsy would likely have better data when it comes to ABS-PAPER vs ABS-IVO numbers from Franklin County to date, and I thought was hoping for another County dump tonight on the servers, but looks like we'll have to wait for tomorrow for updated numbers...

Other big thing to watch from our fellow Atlas posters following this closely on the thread, is that if we're going to get a big ABS-IVO dump it will likely happen this weekend, especially in the Cities/Burbs of Metro Columbus, so people won't have to deal with the Election Day voting gig, when you got a job to work, kids to pick up from school/daycare, stuck in rush hour traffic, and all the crap that gets in the way of wanting to stand an hour in line just to vote after all that for an off-year election...

I will strongly encourage you as someone who is highly familiar with both, do not under any circumstances try to compare the South Hills of Pittsburgh with the Southern Delaware County suburbs.

That said, while before were limbs key to Victory, there is more than a little comparison between the Franklin County portion of Ohio 12 and the South Hills portion of old pa14. The big difference being that the suburbs of Columbus are trending Democratic, but are not nearly as so as the South Hills, even discounting Mount Lebanon. On the other hand there is no Democratic vote sink in the South Hills outside of Mount Lebanon compared to the Ohio 12 portion of Columbus.

[Badger]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Minor point of order. Hamilton County would have enough population for a single seat I believe.

Otherwise your points are valid, if not understand the problem. Franklin County may only be divided in three, but a quick look at the map shows just how incredibly badly it is split. The one entirely Franklin County District is a clear example of packing all the Democratic votes in one District. The rest of the County letter outside set District are still rather Democratic, but not so much that they aren't thoroughly diluted by dipping into literally six or seven other counties with Republican strongholds, with Ohio 12 being a primary example.

Yeah, it would. Not more than one though. But still, if anything, that makes the fact that it's split all the more egregious.

--

And as for your other post, anything supported by Keith Faber is a mistake, and it is a favorite ploy of the Ohio Republican Party to attempt weaksauce reform before actual Ohioans do something transformational via ballot initiative. See also: marijuana legalization and PayDay Loan reform.

Marijuana legalization is totally true. We had a meeting of our County Republican committee where our local state representative asked us to accept him voting in favor of the current medical marijuana system without rebelling. he would back the proposed Bill explicitly as part of a very concrete plan from the GOP leadership to forestall any actual larger legalization reforms, or even medical marijuana reforms that might not just be outright weak tea. He even talked about the political implications of saying no to kids in wheelchairs. That was apparently a concern than actually helping ill people, which made me kind of sick but, whatever...

Payday lending I'm not so sure about to be honest. The initiative passed back in 06 I believe or 08 was very much from the left. Unfortunately, payday lenders got around it bye relabeling themselves as title companies or something where they could still charge these outrageous loans. I believe that the most recently passed Incarnation is, from what I've read, some genuine reform. I'll gladly be corrected on that point if anyone is more knowledgeable, though.

[Badger]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

[Badger]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

Pretty sure it's not. From what I've seen, the scam is being targetted to voters in Clintonville -- an affluent and activist neighborhood of Columbus within OH-12. Local Democrats are urging anyone contacted to report the incident to the Franklin County BOE.

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

O'Connor doesn't need 60% -- he needs to win at least a 20% margin. O'Connor's still well on track for that assuming everyone actually registered the two main parties is actually voting that way. (And given the strong Democratic crossover into the 2016 Republican primary, especially in Franklin County, it's fairly safe to say a fair number of those Republicans are voting for O'Connor.)

We might also see some registered DINOS out in Balderson turf also vote for Balderson though.

Very few I'd guess. Certainly some, but Muskingum County isnt Alabama or West Virginia. It's historically Republican and most Democrats are, well, Democrats. Balderson will certainly pick some up with his Hometown ties, but when one considers the relatively small numbers the county is putting up, I doubt it will have much affect

[Badger]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

This is about what he needs, but a bit more would be better.

Does anyone anticipate an uptick for O'Connor when the in-person weekend voting kicks in this Saturday? What's the historical impact?

[Badger]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

This is based on who folks voted for in 2016, so it's possible that some Democratic and left leaning Independents that crossed over to vote for Kasich against Trump would be counted as Republicans.

Not to mention even if you're talking about only 2% out of close to 40, that would be an insanely low number of Republicans flipping and even a typical race. Hell, I think Hillary got at least that kind of a share of the Republican vote. Considering balderson has spent a significant amount of his campaign running as a Foursquare trumpist, and Ohio 12 is not exactly Trump friendly territory, I strongly suspect he'll do significantly better than that.

That said, balderson is also been running as a pragmatic problem solver, which only means he's been not a complete bomb thrower in the legislature like Jim Jordan was. However it may be enough to keep the needed number of Republican leaning voters with him on Election Day.

Republicans are damn lucky they for once avoided the extremist candidate by turning down leneghan. This rate would be downright lean D if she were the nominee.